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Thundersnow12

January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

He will say ride the Euro if and when there is a Euro run that has a big rainer in Chicago.

duh

 

tone serious: this looks like a rainer tho, antecedent airmass is trash and the western trough is gonna crank heights. madison special incoming.

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1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

duh

 

tone serious: this looks like a rainer tho, antecedent airmass is trash and the western trough is gonna crank heights. madison special incoming.

The air mass is the cold air pressing in not the prefrontal airmass which is why there is a lot of ice being shown especially with the multiple piece setup it is showing.

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3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

duh

 

tone serious: this looks like a rainer tho, antecedent airmass is trash and the western trough is gonna crank heights. madison special incoming.

ALEK stormimage.png.0f9e184a24016371f1c73c17b043e5a3.png

 

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12 and 18z runs of the GFS have me thinking of Feb. and March for this weekend.  60 degrees initially here in central IN with heavy rain from here south to the Ohio river and ice and snow to the north and west.  I usually don't start thinking of ice storms till Feb..  Gonna be an interesting storm to watch develop this weekend.

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7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Obv not

I don't know, I think those water temps might be cold enough to get ice to the lake but this is assuming the ice band ends up somewhere in the metro.

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3 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said:

I'm ready for disappointment.

But at least it will be nice to have something to be disappointing over. 

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44 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said:

The 18z was remarkably similar to the 12z; the line of ice hits the same counties. However, the amounts are slightly depressed.

Agreed. Weird, it's almost like it mimicked part of the run.  

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56 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't know, I think those water temps might be cold enough to get ice to the lake but this is assuming the ice band ends up somewhere in the metro.

Ice lakeside is so so hard to do, and the one time it did happen was a much different setup, I'd say toss

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U know those are ugly and we're right. It's been so boring we forgot what a snowstorm looks like.

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Wait, Chi storm is going with rainer?  I couldn't tell because he mentioned what the seasonal trends have been which would imply weaker/suppressed.

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Alek is like the physical embodiment of those quiet, nagging doubts. I used to disapprove, but I've come to realize that it's refreshing to be forced to face your fears.

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I haven't committed to anything...yet.

Recent trends the past few weeks suggest weaker/strung out/not phased has been the rule, as Hoosier said above. However, we are about to transition into the new pattern though...so maybe that changes...or not?

At the same time, a deep/slow trough with no blocking (+AO/NAO) says well NW/stronger is in play too.

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I'm just surprised to see the GFS, Euro, and Canadian showing something similar. It's unusual to see the models jump on the same bandwagon this season. It gives me hope for this one, but I'm also ready to get hurt again.

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1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

It's been a couple years since we've had a proper storm. Therefore, trends would favour a weaker storm lol. 

https://www.weather.gov/lot/21Nov2015snowfall

This was the last time I was in a 6"+ storm. I was royally screwed in November 2018 when I left for Champaign one day before that storm since classes were starting. I've seen warning-level accums miss to the north, south, east, and west.

In general though winters at 40 degrees north in the Midwest just [email protected]$%#ing suck. IMO, it's the worst climate in all of North America. 30s-40s and rain for four months of the year but you still get blasted with Arctic air and maybe a 1-3" clipper if you're lucky before it melts away a few days later.

I start work in a few weeks so I bet winter will blow its load as soon as I start commuting.

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