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Thundersnow12

January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Looking at the 3km NAM, I'm not a big fan of the big wall of convection from the gulf up to Indiana tomorrow, with the deformation zone sort of detached and hanging back to the west.  Hoping the models aren't overdoing the 2nd wave, as it looks like it may be quite moisture starved.  Think we've seen this sort of scenario before where the detached deformation zone really underperforms.  Hope that isn't the case with this system..

you could be right. Pessimism FTL.

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18 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

NAM

 

image.png.061607245583ee1d7a230c973a477eff.png

Come to papa.

Sort of a low confidence, not-part-of-the-main-band secondary band though.

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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 8:05 pm CST, the first area of moderate to heavy rain was pushing toward Joliet. Over the next 1-2 hours, moderate to heavy rain will move into the Chicago area. By the time the storm ends, Chicago will likely have picked up a 2-day precipitation total of 1.50"-3.00". There have been only 6 cases in January where 2-day precipitation came to 2.00" or more. Records go back to 1871.

Detroit will likely see its heaviest one and two-day total on record. The January daily record is 1.76", which fell on January 12, 1908. The January two-day record is 1.90", which was record on January 3-4, 1993.

Detroit should break the record for largest Jan precip event, just as they broke the record November 11th for largest November snowstorm. Quite impressive marks for the same season, considering records fo back 146 years.

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wonder if madison holds off the sleet for much longer.. Cyclone has been right on the mix line - maybe you flip  real soon?

MKE bombed their lakeside forecast

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Looks like Centerville got it rough.

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
846 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0845 PM     ICE STORM        1 NNW CENTERVILLE       40.74N 92.88W  
01/10/2020                   APPANOOSE          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT    
  
            ICE HAS COATED SEVERAL ROADS THIS EVENING   
            ACROSS THE COUNTY. SEVERAL TREES HAVE   
            SNAPPED AS A RESULT OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS.   
            SOME TREES HAVE FELL ON POWER LINES CAUSING   
            SPARKS. WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD, THERE ARE   
            SEVERAL POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY,   
            A LOT TO DO WITH THE FALLING TREES. A FEW   
            SLIDES OFF HAVE BEEN REPORTED, BUT TRAFFIC   
            RELATED INJURIES THUS FAR.  

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36 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

wonder if madison holds off the sleet for much longer.. Cyclone has been right on the mix line - maybe you flip  real soon?

MKE bombed their lakeside forecast

Yep, I'm here at the airport now. Looks like it will be predominantly rain tonight.

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Been snowing in Madison for about an hour now.  Coming down at a very nice clip  and snow accumulating nicely on top of the sleet layer 

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Can't ignore the trends.  Now looking like 2-4" is the floor around here with some potential for more.  LOT may need to expand advisory southeast. 

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0848 PM ICE STORM ELDON 40.92N 92.23W  

01/10/2020 WAPELLO IA PUBLIC    

TREES COVERED IN ICE AND SNAPPING IN SE   WAPELLO COUNTY.  

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Can't ignore the trends.  Now looking like 2-4" is the floor around here with some potential for more.  LOT may need to expand advisory southeast. 

GFS really liking yby. SR models hanging onto the mix too long over my way. Prolly the marine shadow off the flooded ponds around here..

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Moderate snow now. Pushing 2 inches. Radar looking decent but cutoff isn't too far away. Model trends are not good this evening for round 2 IMBY.

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12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Nightmare scenario for this area.  Narrow miss just northwest tonight, and mostly a miss southeast tomorrow.  

EDIT:  GFS basically shows the same. :axe:

fwiw, 03z RAP is still pretty amped.  

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16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Nightmare scenario for this area.  Narrow miss just northwest tonight, and mostly a miss southeast tomorrow.  

EDIT:  GFS basically shows the same. :axe:

Yep.  We needed a few things to go right, but instead they all went wrong.  Oh well.  At least it was interesting to follow for a week.  Maybe we'll have better fortune over the next month.

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Yep.  We needed a few things to go right, but instead they all went wrong.  Oh well.  At least it was interesting to follow for a week.  Maybe we'll have better fortune over the next month.

Yeah it's been nice finally having something to track.  :thumbsup:

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About 2” on the ground now.  Back to sleet in Madison.   Feeling good about my wave 1 call but not very good about tomorrow’s snow 

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9 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

00z suite as well as the short range models really put a damper on the party - specifically the freezing rain/ice accums. Not going to lie, I’m not mad about it haha.

what do you mean? Still looks like a serious ice storm from what I have seen...?

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Gonna be a bust here on a QPF point.  Good 25 mph breeze gusting to 30-35, no rain at all.  Ill take dry slotted liquid in January for 500 Alex lol. 

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