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MountainGeek

Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I literally can’t recall a single event where the snow depth map was the best verifying forecast product.  Yes 10:1 isn’t always good. Kuchera seems to be in the right sort of ballpark if there’s any precip type or temp issues. Tomorrow isn’t THAT marginal unless you want to take your spotter reports from on the asphalt of the beltway.

 

       I'd respectfully argue that it's way better than 10:1 maps in any sort of sleet or  mixed events or in a daytime event with lousy rates or super warm ground.    It fails in the events with it knows that that the temps are marginal and cuts amounts that can stick, but in the real world the rates overcome the marginal temps.

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I feel like this is a tough call with the temperatures because if this thing really thumps, then it could drag down colder air and also it will just be easier to accumulate. Might really come down to how heavy the rates get. Get the rates, get a few inches. Don't get the rates, get white rain.

Agree on the snow depth maps. I find them totally useless except for when white rain is the expectation.

If the NAM is right, it's.a 4-hr long beatdown.  Probably not right, but all the guidance today seems to suggest at least 1-2 hours of solid rates.  It's early January fercrissakes.  Yes, near-surface temps are a bit warm, but the column is perfectly cold.  

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

 

       I'd respectfully argue that it's way better than 10:1 maps in any sort of sleet or  mixed events or in a daytime event with lousy rates or super warm ground.    It fails in the events with it knows that that the temps are marginal and cuts amounts that can stick, but in the real world the rates overcome the marginal temps.

Yes, if it's a largely sleet event maybe.  

 

I don't have the photographic memory for T-2" events that @psuhoffman has, but I recall some slop storm from the last couple years that looked super marginal on temps.  10:1 was like 2-4", but the snow depth maps were all like 0.1-1".  I was hedging pretty hard on the snow depth maps, and the spotter reports ended up mostly like 1-2".  Which I think was pretty close to Kuchera.  Kuchera seems like a pretty good call in a marginal snow or rain scenario.  Sleet does complicate a bit.  

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yes, if it's a largely sleet event maybe.  

 

I don't have the photographic memory for T-2" events that @psuhoffman has, but I recall some slop storm from the last couple years that looked super marginal on temps.  10:1 was like 2-4", but the snow depth maps were all like 0.1-1".  I was hedging pretty hard on the snow depth maps, and the spotter reports ended up mostly like 1-2".  Which I think was pretty close to Kuchera.  Kuchera seems like a pretty good call in a marginal snow or rain scenario.  Sleet does complicate a bit.  

 

          I like what I've seen from the Kuchera plots.

          I'll admit that it drives me nuts when it's going to be an all sleet or a white rain event, and people post the 10:1 maps screaming "The GFS/NAM/whatever is predicting 14" here.  LOL."      The models are NOT doing that.      Any sleet or snow gets tallied together into a liquid amount, and then the web sites slap on a generic ratio that makes a product with already severe limitations 5x worse.

       

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9 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

       I'd respectfully argue that it's way better than 10:1 maps in any sort of sleet or  mixed events or in a daytime event with lousy rates or super warm ground.    It fails in the events with it knows that that the temps are marginal and cuts amounts that can stick, but in the real world the rates overcome the marginal temps.

In marginal events or events with sleet, the 10:1 maps are usually awful as well. I tend to take the middle ground between the two unless it's a true white rain event.

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56 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yay!  Rejoice...we're all going to get half a foot of snow with surface temps of 36 degrees!!  :hurrbear:

this. sure the NAM looks great and all, but ummmm its not that cold

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5 minutes ago, mappy said:

this. sure the NAM looks great and all, but ummmm its not that cold

I’m not disagreeing, but the dropping dew point temps have my interest. Down to 20* at bwi and iad, 19* at York, and 18* @t dca. Heavy rates could be fun.

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14 minutes ago, mappy said:

this. sure the NAM looks great and all, but ummmm its not that cold

It looks like only surface is near or above freezing while snowing. Column is good. Recall March 2018 and that was March 21st.

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RGEM is essentially identical to 12z. The QPF distribution shifted around a little bit but the end result is the same. Good run imo and very steady back to back

qpf_acc.us_ma.png

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Going to be a tough call for the schools.  If this does materialize and thump it would likely happen in the noon to 6pm window.  Commuttageddon redux not impossible lol

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

Going to be a tough call for the schools.  If this does materialize and thump it would likely happen in the noon to 6pm window.  Commuttageddon redux not impossible lol

I would be shocked if there are not early dismissals. There have been for much, much less threatening events.

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

RGEM is essentially identical to 12z. The QPF distribution shifted around a little bit but the end result is the same. Good run imo and very steady back to back

qpf_acc.us_ma.png

MoCo/HoCo Deathband Bullseye clearly visible. Lol

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The differences with the last 2 runs of the mesos and now globals (ICON, GFS) have been noise. Very steady guidance 12-18z. I think we're mostly locked in. Big winners always TBD gametime. 

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Just now, Scraff said:

MoCo/HoCo Deathband Bullseye clearly visible. Lol

GFS has a better area of .40 qpf. I'll toss the RGEM for now. 

gfs_apcpn_neus_5.png

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I would be shocked if there are not early dismissals. There have been for much, much less threatening events.

Agreed.  I think with the lack of snow to this point and the long range not all that threatening that we will see the usual suspects close for the day.  Looking at you PWC lol

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2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Agreed.  I think with the lack of snow to this point and the long range not all that threatening that we will see the usual suspects close for the day.  Looking at you PWC lol

IDK.  Late start and unenthusiastic NWS might preclude a full day off. We shall see. My experience has been later start times than advertised.  Until we can see it on radar I’m not totally sold.  Anything can happen.  

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

3k / Gfs combo for Carroll county works:D

I was just looking at the sounding for 18z. We're both getting raked with fatties. Like 5 runs in a row with big omegas. 18z GFS expands the area northward. Surface quickly drops to near freezing right after this panel. 

utDjzqH.png

 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Good luck, everyone. I love that sounding, Bob. Hoping y’all get an overperformer. 

It could be a surprisingly heavy snowfall for a time with big dendrites/aggregates. DGZ is at a great level, column is plenty cold with no dumb warm noses, and lift/omegas are rockin'. My inner weenie is happy. 

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

3k / Gfs combo for Carroll county works:D

Starting to look real nice for us and a lot of others. Text output on GFS for Westminster is exactly .40 qpf. if we start ripping temps up near us will be colder than currently shown. I could see 29-30 easily if it's S+. Fingers crossed for an over performer. 

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12 minutes ago, Scraff said:

MoCo/HoCo Deathband Bullseye clearly visible. Lol

I'm glad the models are recognizing that at short range.  Leeetttt'ssss goooooooo

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