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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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I'm a big fan of -AOs and -NAOs, but this consolidation of blue anomalies from East Asia to Alaska is not a good sight for getting cold down into our region (and most of the lower 48 as well).  This is from the EPS Mean in 5 day increments from days 4 to 15.  Maybe the one redeeming quality is that it consolidates some serious cold in NW Canada to potentially dislodge down the road.

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It’s not horrible, imo. If that blocking regime is the theme for the winter we will have our chances.  Ao/nao blocking will produce for us if it hangs around/dominates the winter pattern. 

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On 12/9/2020 at 1:48 PM, BullCityWx said:

The euro isnt as amped this run(also it's coming in super weird on weatherbell) but does appear to have snow from about a rough line from Columbus, MS to Birmingham to Atlanta to Charlotte. Somehow the snow line skips over the entire upstate. 

Book it.

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3 hours ago, griteater said:

I'm a big fan of -AOs and -NAOs, but this consolidation of blue anomalies from East Asia to Alaska is not a good sight for getting cold down into our region (and most of the lower 48 as well).  This is from the EPS Mean in 5 day increments from days 4 to 15.  Maybe the one redeeming quality is that it consolidates some serious cold in NW Canada to potentially dislodge down the road.

dswRqaV.gif

Yeah this has been a concern for me watching this play out. We will lose the blocking eventually and that look never produces for us. A cold Alaska does not really equate to a cold East.

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12 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah this has been a concern for me watching this play out. We will lose the blocking eventually and that look never produces for us. A cold Alaska does not really equate to a cold East.

The Models are picking up on the MJO signal in concert with the Niña forcing in the PAC. Screaming PAC Jet. 

      It is possible, a ridge may try to poke up occasionally in the NE PAC due to the warm SSTS there and an AK Vortex retro to Aleutians. That would be great. Hopefully,  La Niña will rapidly weaken and those NE PAC SST'S remain warm and blocking continues then, we'll be in business. 

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On 12/10/2020 at 10:15 AM, ILMRoss said:

Whatever next week is fits neatly into the same category of the Monday system. It has upside, may be worth some token stuff, but a lot of things need to break in the right direction for it to be anything more than that. I would pay attention to how much the associated S/W digs/cuts off and if it keeps the integrity of that cut-off through the SE on today's model runs- some positive developments there would be cool. 

Generally anything progged to put snow down in Oklahoma and moving laterally warrants at least a lazy eye for our Carolina folks.

^ here's a take that aged like milk in a hot car. it happens.

For next Wednesday, don't really think it's our storm unless you're above 2k feet (even then, apps may have moisture issues). That CAD high will need to get stronger or drop south some for this storm to be relevant to non-mountain folks. 

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50 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

^ here's a take that aged like milk in a hot car. it happens.

For next Wednesday, don't really think it's our storm unless you're above 2k feet (even then, apps may have moisture issues). That CAD high will need to get stronger or drop south some for this storm to be relevant to non-mountain folks. 

Great point, I think there’s still time for things to trend our way, but I also have a hard time trusting thermals on globals, especially this far out. Especially when it’s the CMC. It’s not too far out from NAM range, and I’d like to see what it looks like when it gets its hands on temp profiles throughout the different layers of the atmosphere.

It doesn’t have the feel of an outside-the-mountains/foothills type storm, but there’s still time I suppose. Either way, the ceiling is probably low.

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2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

The Euro is very interesting, if the CAD is stronger it could be a serious ice storm for I 40 north

I was going to say I felt like it took a significant step toward the GEM. We don’t lack but a degree or two as highs went down about 5 degrees on Wednesday. 

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6 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

I was going to say I felt like it took a significant step toward the GEM. We don’t lack but a degree or two as highs went down about 5 degrees on Wednesday. 

The likely hood of it resembling GEM is low.

Both GFS and Canadian granted it's a 1030ish+ HP the placement of the high is not ideal for a CAD event. On top of that its retreating. 

Not to mention H5 wave is opening up as the surface develops.

I know all too well. But this is going to be more than likely a low to mid 30s rainfall.

 

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4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Canadian was a big big run. 

Take with a grain of salt because of the cold bias but I 40 north should be paying this one close attention for ice storm possibilities. 

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It will be interesting to see how the NAM handles the CAD once it gets in range  since it's usually closest to verification in these setups. 

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2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

0Z GFS definitely trended toward this. The ensembles were even more bullish. 

Good to hear. I'm hoping we can get sleet and snow here instead of ZR but usually we get all 3 in these type of setups if the parent high is strong enough. 

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Not trying to sound like a troll.

But if you look at both models and timing.

Far from a ice storm.

29-31 ain't going to cut it with day time warming and retreating cold.

Ice storms are a limited process without a cold air supply. Especially when the CAD starts scouring out.

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7 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Not trying to sound like a troll.

But if you look at both models and timing.

Far from a ice storm.

29-31 ain't going to cut it with day time warming and retreating cold.

Ice storms are a limited process without a cold air supply. Especially when the CAD starts scouring out.

CAD almost always overperforms here, and with the NAO going negative I don't think the high is going to retreat that quickly. Miller B type systems like this are perfect for CAD setups. The coastal low can help funnel the NE winds down and keep the CAD in place 

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GEFS trend loop showing 50/50 low near Newfoundland is trending stronger.  Accordingly, look at how the height lines just to the north of the Great Lakes and NY State trend flatter thru the loop - this is increasing confluence that is making the surface high trend stronger and farther SW....also with farther south low pressure.  Kind of funny that this is 4-5 days out as so much can change.  Going forward, we'd want to see the 50/50 low to continue to trend stronger and farther south, and for the storm wave tracking across the heart of the country to trend a little farther south and with a little less amplitude.

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:
2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

CAD almost always overperforms here, and with the NAO going negative I don't think the high is going to retreat that quickly. Miller B type systems like this are perfect for CAD setups. The coastal low can help funnel the NE winds down and keep the CAD in place 

I do agree that the CAD is probably going to end up being stronger, but since a majority of this is occurring during the day the ice accrual could be inhibited due to run off. Temps have to be in the upper 20’s for these .50”+ totals were seeing to verify in my opinion. 

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