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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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2 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

To get back to weather, what are the trends for the following week in everyone’s opinion?

Gut shot would say anyone north and west of I40 would have the best odds we've had in a very long time. GGEM has been furthest south and more of a swing and a miss. GFS is and has been the most amped and Euro and ICON have been best case scenarios for a couple runs for the northern folks of the forum.

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15 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

The progression of next weekends storm system on the 00z GFS was very weird. At hr 138 it has the LP center just west of Tampa, FL.  Then at 142 it has the LP center over Nashville, TN. :blink:

Literally the worst model ever in every single scenario. Tomorrow it will show a blizzard in the Yucatán and we will sing songs of suppression depression. 

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24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

If their going to be fantasies, they should be dirty! This one is just kinky!

It has to be the last hurrah for fantasy storms before the flowers start blooming  :lol:  #everyweenieinthesouthdreamsofthisday #congratslouisiana #tennesseegetsscrewed #1in1000yearepicstormthatwillneverhappen 

 

EDIT to add the fantasy map that belongs in the banter thread  :lol: 

fantasy.png

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13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Look at ensemble 2, 5, and 19...

 

https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2020012612/SE/GEFSSE_prec_snens_384.png

 

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

This whole thread is nothing more than 300+ hr fantasy storms. It wasn't too long ago posting anything past 160 hrs would get you one of these  :weenie:  next to your name. 

 

 Hopefully spring will drag on endlessly, keeping the summer sauna away.....sigh. 

 

 

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RAH early thoughts for next weekend.

It's worth 
noting that GFS forecast soundings show plenty of low level cooling 
Saturday night into early Sunday, so we may have to consider p-type 
issues during that time if there's any adequate QPF assoc with the 
upper low passage.    The ECMWF on the other hand shows the northern 
stream portion of the system dominating and remaining much more 
progressive, thus it keeps the moisture and sfc low well to our 
south, and in fact, keeps our area dry this weekend!  The Canadian 
looks more like the GFS, and the GEFS supports the operational GFS 
to some extent. For now, won't make too many changes and continue to 
carry chance PoPs until future runs come into better agreement.  

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14 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH early thoughts for next weekend.

It's worth 
noting that GFS forecast soundings show plenty of low level cooling 
Saturday night into early Sunday, so we may have to consider p-type 
issues during that time if there's any adequate QPF assoc with the 
upper low passage.    The ECMWF on the other hand shows the northern 
stream portion of the system dominating and remaining much more 
progressive, thus it keeps the moisture and sfc low well to our 
south, and in fact, keeps our area dry this weekend!  The Canadian 
looks more like the GFS, and the GEFS supports the operational GFS 
to some extent. For now, won't make too many changes and continue to 
carry chance PoPs until future runs come into better agreement.  

well there is a chance and it is within 7 days, that's about a first.  :snowwindow:

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Kind of interesting for yall NC folks.

Thursday morning timeframe. Temps are in mid upper 30s. +/- 2to 3 degrees.  Moisture and duration looks to be the biggest factor. 

Canadian 12z.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

18z Iconicon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

18z namnamconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

 

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54 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Kind of interesting for yall NC folks.

Thursday morning timeframe. Temps are in mid upper 30s. +/- 2to 3 degrees.  Moisture and duration looks to be the biggest factor. 

Canadian 12z.

 

18z Icon

18z nam

 

These are the tricky systems that can produce without notice...

Thanks for posting those maps 

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1 hour ago, strongwxnc said:

These are the tricky systems that can produce without notice...

Thanks for posting those maps 

Robert made a post similar to your first sentence and he's a tad bit excited about it.

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2 hours ago, strongwxnc said:

These are the tricky systems that can produce without notice...

Thanks for posting those maps 

I would  watch tonight as well.

Especially mountains south and west.. and east.

 

 

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The system on Thursday very much has legs. Let's be clear- Not a very high ceiling system! The best case scenario is probably a 1-3 inch event on the northern half of the state! But, beggars can't be choosers. 

The difference for the last few runs of the GFS is a much healthier merge between the two parent jet streaks on the shortwave. when it's exiting Texas.

gfs_z500_vort_eus_fh60_trend.gif

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18 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

The system on Thursday very much has legs. Let's be clear- Not a very high ceiling system! The best case scenario is probably a 1-3 inch event on the northern half of the state! But, beggars can't be choosers. 

The difference for the last few runs of the GFS is a much healthier merge between the two parent jet streaks on the shortwave. when it's exiting Texas.

 

Sorry.

I do respect your opinion.  But considering how badly GFS has performed I'd be seeking my own  blend. Instead of relying on GFS.

But I heartily agree Thursday looks Interesting for NC. Even tonight looks interesting. But that's my opinion.

Considering GFS that's the last thing I would look at. 

 

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8 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Ensembles continue to target between the 7th-10th, couple of juicers in there too

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Problem is will it be cold enough, seems we're always lacking the cold enough for snow.  We've had lots of 35 and rain.  :facepalm:

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13% of winter's since 1920 in Greensboro have featured less than an inch of snow. I think we'll get there, but at this point I would be happy with anything at all.

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