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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

It popped an ULL 15e0652d83d562a5500ce0cf04a0c447.jpg

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The ull  been there.

Just signs that the mountain folks will get  hit  hard

 

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3 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

Thanks Grit. Do you think the -NAO hangs around that long until the pacific improves? Another month? I was hoping the +EAMT would do work earlier and improve the pacific first of January, but it doesn't look like that's the case. Feel like we're on borrowed time. 

Just watching the ensemble model runs, this -AO/-NAO looks and feels legit.  I'm sure it will wax and wane, but I think the signal is more real this time than normal.  The near constant ridging in NW Asia with corresponding troughing in E Asia / NW Pacific is a configuration that will continually attack the stratospheric polar vortex and lend support to the tropospheric high latitude blocking.  I think we will eventually see an official SSW, but it make take some time (late Jan?)...and the chances of the SSW yielding favorable results are better when the troposphere and lower stratosphere are already experiencing blocking and are weaker than normal.  The ideal scenario would be for the tropospheric blocking to continue well into January, then we get the SSW that gives it an additional kick - it's not a far fetched scenario this time.

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27 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

It popped an ULL 15e0652d83d562a5500ce0cf04a0c447.jpg

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At this point I would love to see even a dusting on Christmas.

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Just watching the ensemble model runs, this -AO/-NAO looks and feels legit.  I'm sure it will wax and wane, but I think the signal is more real this time than normal.  The near constant ridging in NW Asia with corresponding troughing in E Asia / NW Pacific is a configuration that will continually attack the stratospheric polar vortex and lend support to the tropospheric high latitude blocking.  I think we will eventually see an official SSW, but it make take some time (late Jan?)...and the chances of the SSW yielding favorable results are better when the troposphere and lower stratosphere are already experiencing blocking and are weaker than normal.  The ideal scenario would be for the tropospheric blocking to continue well into January, then we get the SSW that gives it an additional kick - it's not a far fetched scenario this time.

So you see what I see.

Not out the possibility 

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Man Orangeburg I’m a weenie but you might be the king. I would like to see a flake but ....
I may be a weenie but I learned my lesson about Wishcasting the hard way...

So I stick to posting model outputs

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The 12Z HRRR is coming in now.  Still showing possibility of flurries over central on Christmas Day.  Accumulations are non-consequential, dusting if anything.

NWS not buying it. Not even a mention of clouds in the forecast. Down-sloping makes it almost impossible to get any snow here in the lee. 

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2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

NWS not buying it. Not even a mention of clouds in the forecast. Down-sloping makes it almost impossible to get any snow here in the lee. 

Yeah I'd be surprised to see anything more than a random flurry.  But any flakes on Christmas day is a win to me.  

It is also showing mainly central/eastern NC.  Foothills do have the downslope component.

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1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

NWS not buying it. Not even a mention of clouds in the forecast. Down-sloping makes it almost impossible to get any snow here in the lee. 

Can someone post the 12Z HRRR, please and thanks 

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It’s not unusual to see flurries in the Piedmont from a westerly flow like the HRRR is showing.  Someone smarter than me could explain or tell my I’m completely wrong in my thinking lol.  
 

I assume it’s similar to how the mountains force warm air down lower in the summer in the Piedmont from the lift they create.  But now that warmer air produces a secondary lift in the Piedmont area producing light flurries.  Problem is there’s little moisture in the first place, it’s cold air which holds less moisture, and the mountains squeeze most of it out.  
 

I remember one rogue 3” or so snow we got in Charlotte area from a setup like that.  Very light blowing snow that piled up in about an hour.  

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The GFS has consistently shown this area with accumulating snow... can anyone comment on the potential it has?6cbaecb17855a3b3b879d44dc93ea690.jpg

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This has been showing up for the last eight or so model runs.  That lollipop into northern Guilford would be fine with me.  I’m kidding myself though.  :(

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Best fantasy storm of the winter IMBY. If the block holds and the storm doesn't gain too much latitude in the plains we could be in business. 

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