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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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17 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I’m trying to understand what you guys are getting excited about? There may be some snow flurries/showers in nw ga. Outside of that I don’t see anything other than mountain upslope snow. I’ll go on record saying no snow will fall for anyone outside of the mountains from the frontal band before the dry slot hits. Anything else is relying on upper level evergy and wnw surface flow...aka... flurries for nw ga and some snow for the mountains and that’s it. 

I think what got my attention is the RGEM and SREF both have interest in this. I don’t think it’s going to be a lot or even much more than a flake or two but there is a chance.

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8 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

0z GEFS suites... Get a load of ol' Love Potion #9034c4ff9942d6b31d386ec08e3bcca09.jpge65db42ec88fc8d01e3754ffee148021.jpg

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The GEFS maps from College of DuPage use the old GFS rather than the FV3. Meaning it could be more or less reliable depending on how you feel about the FV3 lol

I personally wouldn't put too much stock in this depiction. The "fingers" of snowfall seem to point to an issue resolving borderline temperatures during the time skips. Plus the pattern of snowfall would imply that this is the back end of the anafront, rather than post-front flurries from the back-end energy like the RGEM shows. 

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The GEFS maps from College of DuPage use the old GFS rather than the FV3. Meaning it could be more or less reliable depending on how you feel about the FV3 lol
I personally wouldn't put too much stock in this depiction. The "fingers" of snowfall seem to point to an issue resolving borderline temperatures during the time skips. Plus the pattern of snowfall would imply that this is the back end of the anafront, rather than post-front flurries from the back-end energy like the RGEM shows. 
Why doesn't CoD use the FV3?

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A few long range thoughts.  I believe early to mid January will be favorable for a winter storm or 2 for the mid-Atlantic and north...and same for all of the east coast including our forum for mid to late January as enhanced convection should begin to move out of Indonesia during the 2nd week of January, improving the pattern over Western Canada / Eastern Alaska.  I would say that the chances of a large and widespread winter storm for our forum to be much higher than normal for mid-January to early February.  Time will tell, we can revisit down the road.  Here is today's Euro Ensemble Mean for days 10-15...

QGFi83a.gif

 

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

A few long range thoughts.  I believe early to mid January will be favorable for a winter storm or 2 for the mid-Atlantic and north...and same for all of the east coast including our forum for mid to late January as enhanced convection should begin to move out of Indonesia during the 2nd week of January, improving the pattern over Western Canada / Eastern Alaska.  I would say that the chances of a large and widespread winter storm for our forum to be much higher than normal for mid-January to early February.  Time will tell, we can revisit down the road.  Here is today's Euro Ensemble Mean for days 10-15...

QGFi83a.gif

 

Thanks Grit. Do you think the -NAO hangs around that long until the pacific improves? Another month? I was hoping the +EAMT would do work earlier and improve the pacific first of January, but it doesn't look like that's the case. Feel like we're on borrowed time. 

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