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NorEastermass128

Panic Room

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5 hours ago, Snow88 said:

What a disgusting winter . **** the areas who keep getting snow.

You should do what I did -- move north. Although I'd have to say even here it's been boring since mid-December. Maybe Vermont.

Also those 40" winters were never going to be the norm in NYC. You just got very lucky for 18 years.

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On 1/4/2020 at 10:32 PM, raindancewx said:

The two week period he mentions is kind of impressive historically -

Long-term, your magic number for ~never getting above average snow seems to be a high of about 41/42F or more in DJF. 

zD62Qkr.png

The 12/1-1/15 average high is 45.2F in Boston. Correlation implies 42.0F now for the season, +/-2.8F, at 90% certainty based on 1931-32 to 2018-19 errors from hindcasting. Winters with a high of 39.2F-44.8F in Boston average 31 inches of snow:

DJF Tmax Tmax Snow
1931-1932 42.4 18.4
1932-1933 44.2 40.6
1936-1937 42.7 9
1946-1947 40.6 19.4
1948-1949 42.1 37.1
1949-1950 41.4 32
1950-1951 42.3 29.7
1951-1952 40.6 31.9
1952-1953 41.7 29.8
1953-1954 41.8 23.6
1959-1960 40.5 40.9
1971-1972 40.6 47.5
1973-1974 40.7 36.9
1974-1975 41.1 27.6
1975-1976 40.8 46.6
1982-1983 41.3 32.7
1984-1985 39.4 26.6
1988-1989 40.3 15.5
1990-1991 43.2 19.1
1991-1992 40.5 22
1994-1995 40.9 14.9
1996-1997 41.7 51.9
1997-1998 40.8 25.6
1998-1999 41.5 36.4
1999-2000 40.3 24.4
2001-2002 44.5 15.1
2005-2006 39.9 39.9
2006-2007 40.1 17.1
2007-2008 39.4 51.2
2011-2012 44.7 9.3
2012-2013 40 63.4
2016-2017 42.5 47.6
2017-2018 39.6 59.9
2018-2019 41.1 27.4
Average 41.3 31.5

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From Judah Cohen:

GFS ensembles now in agreement w operational completing a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling strong #PolarVortex/positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) event with positive AO predicted for late Jan & early Feb that favors an overall mild pattern across the N Hemisphere:

Image

Better get ready in some areas at least to plan on some early gardening should this verify as the correct solution.  Dr. Dews will be doing his rain dance no doubt to help this along.

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1 hour ago, Ogmios said:

From Judah Cohen:

GFS ensembles now in agreement w operational completing a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling strong #PolarVortex/positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) event with positive AO predicted for late Jan & early Feb that favors an overall mild pattern across the N Hemisphere:

Image

Better get ready in some areas at least to plan on some early gardening should this verify as the correct solution.  Dr. Dews will be doing his rain dance no doubt to help this along.

Judah is drunk if he thinks GEFS show a warm pattern in the NH

download (27).png

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40 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

so what if it's not a snowy winter. what empty lives some people have

I guess people like to make snow angels in it.

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20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I guess people like to make snow angels in it.

I would also say some people just like to make a living off it (snow plow drivers), and small businesses that need the income to supplement the seasonal industry facing the everyday struggle that might cause closure and failure through things unrelated to weather that will not be mentioned here, and not enough customers requiring equipment for winter activities and tools alike; the season might end up so slow that more workers lose their jobs.

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50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Judah is drunk if he thinks GEFS show a warm pattern in the NH

download (27).png

I keep hearing from 3rd party sources that the European models have recently trended into a blow torch pattern for much of the East Coast throughout February which is in agreement with the CanSIPS.  Since I do not have access to the Euro long term predictions by monthly I will leave that to others to verify whether true or not.

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3 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This winter is like one big 40 degree day. 

One of my favorite all-time weather related analogies

That’s actually perfect!

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45 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This might be the worst winter ever

Who says that?....everyone's mother?

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On January 16, 2020 at 5:57 PM, Snow88 said:

This might be the worst winter ever

Amazing echoes of last winter. Another dud December/Jan, same fake out by the modeling for an epic pattern in the back half of January. Modoki goes in the fraud five if this season winds up where '19 did.

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Amazing echoes of last winter. Another dud December/Jan, same fake out by the modeling for an epic pattern in the back half of January. Modoki goes in the fraud five if this season winds up where '19 did.

I can't believe I had more snow by this time in 11/12.

One positive. If this winter follows last we will have another 11.5 inches in March:D

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28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I can't believe I had more snow by this time in 11/12.

One positive. If this winter follows last we will have another 11.5 inches in March:D

Ha, always a silver lining. But then again I don't enjoy March snow as much because it always melts quickly. 

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22 hours ago, Hoth said:

Ha, always a silver lining. But then again I don't enjoy March snow as much because it always melts quickly. 

My snow is melting already and it is January 19th....what a season

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It is amazing how things can break positive or negative.  In the first half of the 2010's, no matter how good or bad the overall look was, it always felt like things always seemed to break for the better.  The second half of the 2010's, just the opposite and I'm talking in my backyard.  Even though the winter of 2011-12 was overall horrible, that little snowstorm at the end of October surely made the entire winter season memorable.

All I can do is hope for something more substantial to come along as this is our second winter in New Hartford at 1,000 feet and we haven't really much snow since we got here.

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It still looks to me like the pattern is repeating, almost verbatim from Fall at a 3.5 month lag. The very very cold air dumping into Montana lately is consistent with what happened about 10/1. In other words...the mid-Oct to mid-Nov part of the pattern is likely coming in February. The January SOI hanging out around 0, were it to continue, supports something like a 1937/1993/2005 blend for February 2020, which is fairly similar to how mid-Oct to mid-Nov looked, but colder West.

Image

Real question is: When will Philadelphia have its first inch of snow?

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

one of the best

Oh for sure. 3.5 for the whole season total in NYC. And 100% of that came from one single "storm" in January. Every other month was Trace.

Every month from Dec to Mar had temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Depature was +5 to +8 from Dec to Mar.

Doesn'g get much better than that! Apparently Snow88 forgot all about it.

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