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Dr. Dews

January 2020 Discussion

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I just want to say, with the recent warmth, the storms the next two weeks have a lot of energy to ignite something large and expansive off the East Coast.

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7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I just want to say, with the recent warmth, the storms the next two weeks have a lot of energy to ignite something large and expansive off the East Coast.

Agree

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7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I just want to say, with the recent warmth, the storms the next two weeks have a lot of energy to ignite something large and expansive off the East Coast.

You, without a doubt, are consistently the most optimistic person in this discussions.

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This 72-96 hour event has legs for SNE too.  Model teleconnections show the strong potential for a mini collaboration between the NAO and PNA regions heading to a -NAO/+PNA couplet in this 15/16th period.  The models all show a strong dip in the NAO and a strong rise in the PNA.  There is a strong possibility that the rise and drop in the teleconnections have a bigger role in the storms intensity/location/duration for areas above 40N latitude east of 75 west longitude.  A lot of people believe that the transition phases could have more impact on SNE than the Mid-Atlantic and Northern New England regions.  Since during strong -NAO patterns, the Mid-Atlantic gets the storms, while a weaker -NAO to neutral stage allows SNE to get in on the goods.  However, with a cooperating PNA pattern in the western CONUS this could provide a better chance for snow in the upcoming week ahead.  Just a thought.

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3 minutes ago, ATkeL said:

You, without a doubt, are consistently the most optimistic person in this discussions.

well with such a large surge north with heat we have had, it has to be released in the form of multiple storm systems moving off the East Coast.  I have seen this in the past.

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26 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I just want to say, with the recent warmth, the storms the next two weeks have a lot of energy to ignite something large and expansive off the East Coast.

Of Dawn Awakening caliber?

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Just now, Hoth said:

Of Dawn Awakening caliber?

Nothing of that caliber, the only ones that huge for me were the Blizzard of 2005 and Blizzard of 2015 (JUNO)

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12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

SE flow favored eastern dacks and NNE

I'm still selling those ridiculous totals unless it morphs into a more legit Miller B coastal. 

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

More of a SWFE right now.

Yes. Got plenty of juice but it's hard to get more than a foot in those. Maybe some enhanced areas get 15ish. 

It could trend more redeveloper obviously. Then we could be talking about bigger totals. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. Got plenty of juice but it's hard to get more than a foot in those. Maybe some enhanced areas get 15ish. 

It could trend more redeveloper obviously. Then we could be talking about bigger totals. 

Yes, Foot is generally the ceiling, Unless this morphs into more of a Miller B,  A lot of these end up in the 6-10" range, I would say as modeled right now, Its probably on the higher end of the ceiling.

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Those kuchera maps are window dressing, Most events along the coast are in the 7-10:1 range generally.

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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. Got plenty of juice but it's hard to get more than a foot in those. Maybe some enhanced areas get 15ish. 

It could trend more redeveloper obviously. Then we could be talking about bigger totals. 

Yea, never forecast over 1' with open mid levels or mid levels to NW.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wasn't it always?

I really have not looked at much here lately so it very well could have been, Just getting a look into these next ones today.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Boston, Bridgeport, New Haven, and Providence all set January record high temperatures.

That’s fairly substantial.  Big time warmth.

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I’m kind of bullish on the weekend deal. Most models are really drilling the low well north and west of the area and still delivering a significant thump ~6”+ for almost everyone save for the cape and beaches.

If this follows the path of similar storms this year... I’d expect that to become less pronounced, which should lead to snowier solutions, or less mix issues. 
 

just a guess 6 days out 

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