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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Ha, Yeah it would, And has happened before too, We made it to 57°F up here.

Hey man ...  I've said before, I'll say it again...

First it gets warm, then it get cold:                                            boom

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey man ...  I've said before, I'll say it again...

First it gets warm, then it get cold:                                            boom

Yesterday and today actually reminded me a bit of the day before the 3/31-4/1, 1997 storm...just a bit windier than back then. Of course.... different pattern and time of year. 

We did get into the 60s about a week before the January 2005 blizzard. That month was Jekyll and Hyde.

 

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41 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I know this Kuchera derived clown map should not be taken (even near) to face value but it's fun to look at.  18Z GFS through Sunday AM

Untitled.jpg

Been a while since a 3footer.  Congrats dendrite!   Seriously though how would we get that much qpf?  Thought it was fast flow and block not in place yet

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Been a while since a 3footer.  Congrats dendrite!   Seriously though how would we get that much qpf?  Thought it was fast flow and block not in place yet

Sell the qpf shown. It's likely overdone. It's a good threat though even if we take 50-60% of the qpf. 

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I think there is the potential for the 15/16th system to come more southward with time, models are still up in the air with the pattern aloft across EPO/NAO regions, this will fluctuate for the next 24-36 hours.  This will have a major impact on the next storm period.  I am waiting to see if the models come into agreement on the synoptic pattern before I worry about the surface details.

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7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I just want to say, with the recent warmth, the storms the next two weeks have a lot of energy to ignite something large and expansive off the East Coast.

You, without a doubt, are consistently the most optimistic person in this discussions.

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This 72-96 hour event has legs for SNE too.  Model teleconnections show the strong potential for a mini collaboration between the NAO and PNA regions heading to a -NAO/+PNA couplet in this 15/16th period.  The models all show a strong dip in the NAO and a strong rise in the PNA.  There is a strong possibility that the rise and drop in the teleconnections have a bigger role in the storms intensity/location/duration for areas above 40N latitude east of 75 west longitude.  A lot of people believe that the transition phases could have more impact on SNE than the Mid-Atlantic and Northern New England regions.  Since during strong -NAO patterns, the Mid-Atlantic gets the storms, while a weaker -NAO to neutral stage allows SNE to get in on the goods.  However, with a cooperating PNA pattern in the western CONUS this could provide a better chance for snow in the upcoming week ahead.  Just a thought.

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