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Dr. Dews

January 2020 Discussion

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HBR into NE Quebec ridging on that one. Worth watching, and then we finally get the PAC to cooperate more. A little more optimistic feeling this morning. 

This is just like the movie groundhog day!

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Days palpably longer now.  I’m getting cautiously optimistic that we redeem some of winter in February and March.

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice sunrise on the Gray NWS camera

latest_gyx_image_camera2.jpg

wow that's pretty nice!

One hobby I want to get into is photography...I can't wait until the summer when we get the early sunrises and I get to watch the sun rise going into work...epic. I'm going to get a dash-cam too (mainly for storm chasing) but use it on mornings the sun rise will be epic. 

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Going to have to start looking into how the pattern is going to be come spring. I sure hope it's one that favors active severe wx in the Plains...if I go to OK and nothing happens I'm going to be a bit upset. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is legit, 3/4 mile from my house at 725 feet, I am 515 13 degrees

20200123_075426.jpg

Noticed that here this morning as well on a hill nearby.

 

Screenshot_20200123-075746_Wunderground.jpg

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's different as the PAC will improve. 

Models are getting active in the long range thanks to a good pac. 

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Some differences between EPS and GEFS in the LR but both are definitely better looking. EPS look better than GEFS though. 

Guess we'll see how things progress in the next 3-4 days. 

Next week's threat is supported by the Hudson Bay and Quebec ridging. Had a little bit of a western ridge too so perhaps this one can have a better fate than this weekend. 

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some differences between EPS and GEFS in the LR but both are definitely better looking. EPS look better than GEFS though. 

Guess we'll see how things progress in the next 3-4 days. 

Next week's threat is supported by the Hudson Bay and Quebec ridging. Had a little bit of a western ridge too so perhaps this one can have a better fate than this weekend. 

The way this season has progressed I say check in Friday... Next Friday, lol

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32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

21° at 866ft in Tilton. 6° here at 615ft. 31° at 1300ft. Hills ftw again. 

Interestingly though we went down to -4. I'd have expected warmer 

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14 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

The way this season has progressed I say check in Friday... Next Friday, lol

We say this every winter,  but eventually something works out. Persistence isn’t always the best way to forecast. 

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some differences between EPS and GEFS in the LR but both are definitely better looking. EPS look better than GEFS though. 

Guess we'll see how things progress in the next 3-4 days. 

Next week's threat is supported by the Hudson Bay and Quebec ridging. Had a little bit of a western ridge too so perhaps this one can have a better fate than this weekend. 

A Wait and see approach is best after the last head fake. But I think that one was rushed by guidance and this one could be the shot. Reshuffling always seems to take longer than expected.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

We say this every winter,  but eventually something works out. Persistence isn’t always the best way to forecast. 

Sometimes you go with it but when the dam breaks, it’s useless. Hopefully the dam breaks out west because that’s the key to the whole thing. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We say this every winter,  but eventually something works out. Persistence isn’t always the best way to forecast. 

climo :lol: 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A Wait and see approach is best after the last head fake. But I think that one was rushed by guidance and this one could be the shot. Reshuffling always seems to take longer than expected.

Yeah the pattern was never good in this past one....but I mean, we knew that it was hostile the whole time and knew it was an uphill climb....we needed the timing to work out and it just didn't. The shortwave rotating around the greenland vortex trended weaker/north. That really was probably most of the bad trend.

 

So yeah...we can blame it on a hostile pattern in the sense that everything needed to go right, but the failure itself was the shortwave up north trending bad on us. The cynical amongst us would say if we needed that thing to trend north, you know damned well it wouldn't have budged or trended south and we would have blamed it on a monster vortex up there. It didn't help that we had a disgusting antecedent airmass (again, owing to the bad larger scale pattern).....if we had a fresh airmass in place, we'd probably survive that west trend on the ULL...it may have been a messier storm, but probably a hell of a thump on the front end anyway and prob a lot more CAD/resistance anyway....so it prob redevelops further east.

 

Next week looks to have a little more wiggle room....but obviously everyone should trend carefully until we're much closer. At the very least, the antecedent airmass in the next one isn't total dogshit.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

When it's consistent for 3-4+ days then it can be considered a potential true change 

It was definitely consistent for 3-4 days a week to 10 days ago for this coming week and then it 180’d.  I think we need to see it get inside day 10 to be confident 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It was definitely consistent for 3-4 days a week to 10 days ago for this coming week and then it 180’d.  I think we need to see it get inside day 10 to be confident 

I wonder why when we seem to get inside a certain time frame we see these major flips...it certainly doesn't happen every time but it always seems like we get inside this magic number and poof...a complete 180 happens. 

Is it perhaps that everything is being sampled better? Perhaps its a parameterization  function (outside of a certain time range doesn't the parameterization schemes change?)? Or maybe its a type of bias resulting from the ensemble mean smoothing key features just a bit too much? 

 

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