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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Wow, this am at the shop working on equipment, it seemed everything was looking good!(speaking for Saturday/Sunday event), a few were thinking of a possible Miller B type, etc. Just catching up and now is this going down the drain? warmer temps?

And just wondering are most of the models off this year? Seems the Saturday/Sunday event was showing a strong signal if you would 4 days ago? And now from the last page here, winter is over again.... Maybe it's me seems the models just keep dropping the ball, but then again we are a ways out from Saturday.

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5 minutes ago, 512high said:

Wow, this am at the shop working on equipment, it seemed everything was looking good!(speaking for Saturday/Sunday event), a few were thinking of a possible Miller B type, etc. Just catching up and now is this going down the drain? warmer temps?

And just wondering are most of the models off this year? Seems the Saturday/Sunday event was showing a strong signal if you would 4 days ago? And now from the last page here, winter is over again.... Maybe it's me seems the models just keep dropping the ball, but then again we are a ways out from Saturday.

Unrealistic expectations at long lead times causes most of it.   Over abundance of model data adds to it.  

And honestly if all the modeled snowstorms hit as depicted at random day 5-9 intervals we all probably average 250” a season.  

You are in NH right?  Should be fine there.  

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9 minutes ago, 512high said:

Wow, this am at the shop working on equipment, it seemed everything was looking good!(speaking for Saturday/Sunday event), a few were thinking of a possible Miller B type, etc. Just catching up and now is this going down the drain? warmer temps?

And just wondering are most of the models off this year? Seems the Saturday/Sunday event was showing a strong signal if you would 4 days ago? And now from the last page here, winter is over again.... Maybe it's me seems the models just keep dropping the ball, but then again we are a ways out from Saturday.

Fast flow also is having some affect on models vs verification 

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20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That is not happening anytime soon so you may as well root for snow or maybe enjoy your 30s and grey for a month or two?

We'll see some very nice days at some point this month, and there's nothing wrong with cold crisp nights and dry, sunny days. Especially given the increasing sun.

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26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Maybe we can get Taal to change the pattern 

Taal is a tropical volcano. Normally in such a case we'd have 8-12 months of tendency toward +NAO following the eruption, followed by colder. We had the same thing from June 1991 - March 1992 after Pinatubo (in almost the same region) erupted.

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