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WINTER 2019/2020 BANTER


NYCSNOWMAN2020
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oh to be just south of Buffalo:

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  1 to 2 feet. Winds gusting as high as 45 to 55 mph will result
  in severe blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Southern Erie and Wyoming counties and the western
  Southern Tier.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow will produce near zero visibility. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes Thursday
  and Friday. Strong winds could cause some tree damage and
  isolated power outages.
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Just now, Brian5671 said:

oh to be just south of Buffalo:


...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  1 to 2 feet. Winds gusting as high as 45 to 55 mph will result
  in severe blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Southern Erie and Wyoming counties and the western
  Southern Tier.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow will produce near zero visibility. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes Thursday
  and Friday. Strong winds could cause some tree damage and
  isolated power outages.

How about this ?

 

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 4 feet across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 1 to 2 feet for
  surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50 to 60
  mph will result in severe blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 4 PM EST Friday.

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Just now, MJO812 said:

How about this ?

 

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 4 feet across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 1 to 2 feet for
  surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50 to 60
  mph will result in severe blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 4 PM EST Friday.

I bet someone there puts up a 60 inch total

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Just now, nycwinter said:

only possible due to the fact the winter been warm and most if not all the lake are not frozen...

yep only 9% of the lakes surface area is frozen-if you look at 01-02 and 11-12 they had some big outbreaks out there too-I think BUF had a record event one of those years

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep only 9% of the lakes surface area is frozen-if you look at 01-02 and 11-12 they had some big outbreaks out there too-I think BUF had a record event one of those years

Yeah around Christmas time. This late in the season is pretty unusual

RECORD REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
557 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2001

...RECORDS CONTINUE TO BE BROKEN AT BUFFALO...

SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH 5PM TODAY HAVE REACHED HISTORIC VALUES AND CONTINUE TO BREAK RECORDS. IN THE 5 DAY PERIOD SINCE CHRISTMAS EVE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE DUMPED AN INCREDIBLE 82.3 INCHES AT THE BUFFALO AIRPORT. 

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On 2/12/2020 at 6:41 PM, donsutherland1 said:

I hope we don't get buried in pollen.

at this rate I wouldn't be surprised if I saw tumbleweed barricading my front door like that guy in WA had!

I was driving on I-80 near the Delaware Water Gap on Monday and I saw a forest fire just ahead of me and above me, first time I've ever seen that- let alone in February!  It was named the Rock Face Fire and it was burning 70 acres last I heard, and it was on Mt Tammany on the Jersey side.

 

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On 2/12/2020 at 5:38 PM, gravitylover said:

More sun = more growth = more allergens waiting to ruin your day ;) A couple of years ago we had a very wet and gloomy spring that didn't really end until around Memorial Day. This left the local forests with nearly no understory until late June and it never fully recovered from the slow start. Unfortunately the mold was pretty terrible...

 

the weirdest thing I've seen this season was that forest fire I saw near I-80, I had seen smoke in the same area back in August 1995, but this was the first time I've ever seen an actual forest fire.  Crazy to see that in February!

I heard that San Fran hasn't seen any measurable rain in February for the first time, so they must be worried about forest fires on the west coast too.

 

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10 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah I just spent t the days Sunday and Monday in the woods and it's amazing how dry it is. This moisture yesterday and today isn't going to put a dent in the dryness. I fully expect a serious fire season if things don't change.

yep, we've slowly dried out after the very wet December-while it's been cloudy and damp, the rain has not added up to much.   Tonight's event should give us all .50

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah I just spent t the days Sunday and Monday in the woods and it's amazing how dry it is. This moisture yesterday and today isn't going to put a dent in the dryness. I fully expect a serious fire season if things don't change.

anecdotally I feel that dry summers often follow winters like this

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15 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

yep, we've slowly dried out after the very wet December-while it's been cloudy and damp, the rain has not added up to much.   Tonight's event should give us all .50

It's funny though, with so little precip for the last two months and the ground never really droze just how wet the surface is. We barely got any rain and if you step off the pavement water comes up around your shoe like squeezing it out of a sponge. It's amazing how much moisture the soil has retained after 2 wet years. 

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

anecdotally I feel that dry summers often follow winters like this

I think that in a regionwide drought scenario where dry begets dry that would be the case but it has been so wet for so long locally and regionally and with temps generally being a few degrees higher there's moisture and heat energy that has to get "squeezed out" eventually. When that will be is anyone's guess at this point.

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I put a bunch of people on ignore cause their posts are always biased towards warm weather during winter and it seems like if it is going to be warm they keep writing about it instigating it even more. People I put on ignore: allsnow, snowman19, and a couple of others but not from this forum. We get it dude the winter was a dud 

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5 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said:

I put a bunch of people on ignore cause their posts are always biased towards warm weather during winter and it seems like if it is going to be warm they keep writing about it instigating it even more. People I put on ignore: allsnow, snowman19, and a couple of others but not from this forum. We get it dude the winter was a dud 

How many different accounts is this for you now? It’s disturbing and I honestly feel bad for you, there are obviously some serious mental and emotional issues and I hope you get the psychiatric/psychological help you need...

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30 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said:

I put a bunch of people on ignore cause their posts are always biased towards warm weather during winter and it seems like if it is going to be warm they keep writing about it instigating it even more. People I put on ignore: allsnow, snowman19, and a couple of others but not from this forum. We get it dude the winter was a dud 

Dude, you have a young kid. Grow up and act like an adult for your child. If someone talking about warm weather bothers you that much, then I don’t know what to tell you. Life will be harder than a weather forum. The weather does not care about emotions or people on a board. You have to be objective with meteorology which is a science. People cannot instigate weather. People will always be disagreeable with you. Further with everything going on in the past week, weather really isn’t going to be in the top of people’s minds. 

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2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Dude, you have a young kid. Grow up and act like an adult for your child. If someone talking about warm weather bothers you that much, then I don’t know what to tell you. Life will be harder than a weather forum. The weather does not care about emotions or people on a board. You have to be objective with meteorology which is a science. People cannot instigate weather. People will always be disagreeable with you. Further with everything going on in the past week, weather really isn’t going to be in the top of people’s minds. 

Some people on here instigate and I choose to ignore them. Simple as that it’s not about growing up or anything it just I don’t need to hear something I already been hearing for months give it up.

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Back on February 17, there was chatter that 1960 was an analog for the upcoming March. That's an example of the kind of extreme suggestions that periodically show up on Social Media despite a lack of evidence (the most common extreme idea remains calls for imminent sudden or major stratospheric warming events).

For illustrative purposes, I posted maps showing that the area of cold for the first half of February was much less expansive than it was during the same timeframe in 1960 and that there was an absence of a mechanism to deliver the cold air into the CONUS for an extended period. These were two enormous and highly visible "red flags" that argued against the kind of severe cold seen during March 1960 e.g., monthly average temperature of 33.3° in New York City where the coldest March since then was 1984 with a mean temperature of 36.7°. Nationwide, March 1960 was the 3rd coldest March on record in the contiguous United States with a mean temperature nearly 5.6° below the 1901-2000 average. February 1960 was also the 18th coldest February on record in the contiguous United States.

In terms of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the February 16-29, 1960 average was -2.566. The preliminary February 16-28, 2020 average is +3.906.

Put another way, had one asked, "What would it take to produce a March outcome similar to that in 1960?" one would have been hard-pressed to invoke such a comparison.

With February nearing a conclusion, it's useful to examine and compare how the second half of February has fared relative to that in 1960. Spoiler alert: there's no meaningful similarity in terms of the development of widespread and severe cold.

Feb16-291960-2020.jpg

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