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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you’re using the NAM at all I’d advise you to heed own advice . Abysmal 

If you can’t use meso-models now, when do you?  It’s an honest question.  At some point you have to put the coarser guidance to bed. 

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Hey all, I'm new here! I grew up in the Pacific Northwest, so I know a decent bit about the weather out there. I'm pretty clueless about the weather around here, though. Lookin' forward to tracking this storm with y'all!

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i talk to brad field he says northern ct should be under warnings .i say  national weather service not looking at the trends colder storm . anything over 6 inches should have warnings .

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3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Congrats to all of you except really northern folk. And also congrats Trenton. 

sn10_acc.us_ne-6.png

That 5.5" total in the central Berkshires seems a bit low.

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Congrats to all of you except really northern folk. And also congrats Trenton. 

sn10_acc.us_ne-6.png

Seems reasonable...not the insane amounts of the euro, but Quite major nonetheless.  I like my area in CT on that depiction...now do I really believe that?  Not really lol. 

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39 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

My final call. One of the lower confidence forecasts I've made.  High bust potential in either direction I feel.  I couldn't talk myself into what the upper range might be. 

Storm Total.gif

Honesty great map

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Right now, the disturbance in question for round 2 is the area of energy over eastern NE and western IA at this hour.  Clearly seen on WV imagery.  Where the upper level energy catches the surface low will determine where it blows up rapidly and where the best most intense snow rates occur.  If it is captured southeast of ACK, Cape and Islands will see a lot of snow and blizzard conditions, but if the capture is later more like south of Nova Scotia and Boston region gets the most snows.  When the storm explodes as the upper level disturbance catches the surface low bombogenesis occurs and turns any remaining rain over to a heavy wind blown snow.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Right now, the disturbance in question for round 2 is the area of energy over eastern NE and western IA at this hour.  Clearly seen on WV imagery.  Where the upper level energy catches the surface low will determine where it blows up rapidly and where the best most intense snow rates occur.  If it is captured southeast of ACK, Cape and Islands will see a lot of snow and blizzard conditions, but if the capture is later more like south of Nova Scotia and Boston region gets the most snows.  When the storm explodes as the upper level disturbance catches the surface low bombogenesis occurs and turns any remaining rain over to a heavy wind blown snow.

Actually the round 2 shortwave is farther east than that. It still needs to rotate around the north side of the upper low. 

Just a tick north of Lake Erie at the moment.

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9 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

Hey all, I'm new here! I grew up in the Pacific Northwest, so I know a decent bit about the weather out there. I'm pretty clueless about the weather around here, though. Lookin' forward to tracking this storm with y'all!

Welcome aboard!

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Honesty great map

I have not seen 1 station call for that much snow in central rhode island or even coastal areas.

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually the round 2 shortwave is farther east than that. It still needs to rotate around the north side of the upper low. 

Just a tick north of Lake Erie at the moment.

It is over ERIE?

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It is over ERIE?

It is. The shortwave over IA may be what enhances precip Monday afternoon. The thing over Erie is Tuesday.

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

RD 2 on the RGEM just destroys SNH through eastern Mass.

Really good shot down into the Philly area too.

If someone can get in on good WAA tonight and also banding Tuesday it could be big totals. 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

It is. The shortwave over IA may be what enhances precip Monday afternoon. The thing over Erie is Tuesday.

Yeah I just figured it out, thanks for the correction, the energy over MO is the one that slows the precip down and actually enhances convection, but the short wave over ERIE is the one  that is the catalyst for the secondary bombogenesis tomorrow night.

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23 minutes ago, blizzard24 said:

i talk to brad field he says northern ct should be under warnings .i say  national weather service not looking at the trends colder storm . anything over 6 inches should have warnings .

That's not really how it works, it's 8". 9" for Litchfield county.

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Question for everybody:

My wife has to drive from Newton to Sturbridge area for work. How good are they about salting/plowing the highways? I am wondering if she should just call the day off tomorrow/Tuesday. Thanks.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

If someone can get in on good WAA tonight and also banding Tuesday it could be big totals. 

Agreed.  That’s how this goes 18”+ for someone.  I like your SW counties of the forecast area into NE MA as an overlap of both parts of the storm.

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

RD 2 on the RGEM just destroys SNH through eastern Mass.

Really good shot down into the Philly area too.

499D69A3-02FC-4B2B-A587-5E8D6E53F483.thumb.png.372b4ff6f7acc5b8f0c547adcee8b972.png

That 22" stripe running through here would tie or break my Greenfield record since we moved here in 2007.  (22" here in 2013 - Nemo)

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed.  That’s how this goes 18”+ for someone.  I like your SW counties of the forecast area into NE MA as an overlap of both parts of the storm.

I do too. I think the Monadnocks could squeeze out some fair snow in the "lull" thanks to upsloping.

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6 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

Question for everybody:

My wife has to drive from Newton to Sturbridge area for work. How good are they about salting/plowing the highways? I am wondering if she should just call the day off tomorrow/Tuesday. Thanks.

Should be fine.  Will likely be slow with roads wet/sloppy.

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9 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

Question for everybody:

My wife has to drive from Newton to Sturbridge area for work. How good are they about salting/plowing the highways? I am wondering if she should just call the day off tomorrow/Tuesday. Thanks.

Expect a much longer than normal drive.  They do ok at plowing etc but it can be hard to keep up

 

 

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1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

21z RAP still going strong at hr 39 after crushing everyone.  Low stalled for hours just E of Cape.

Where can one see this?

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