Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

[CoastalWx]

Even those on the water that turn to a mess, later Monday and Monday night flip back and may play catch up.

[OceanStWx]

45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Can't congratulate quite yet.

Congrats Dendrite!

[NYCweatherNOW]

All models will head south in the evening mark my words

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS a north tick too. Pretty good for a lot of SNE away from the water. 850s get mild srn half of CT.

Everyone knew it was coming, but it seems a bit early...I would assume this "trend" continues until at least 12z tomorrow. Even so, that still puts us almost 60 hours until the second part of the system with plenty of room for wobbles....

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

All models will head south in the evening mark my words

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Everyone knew it was coming, but it seems a bit early...I would assume this "trend" continues until at least 12z tomorrow. Even so, that still puts us almost 60 hours until the second part of the system with plenty of room for wobbles....

This is waffling territory. 00z could go the other way. I don't see trends one way or another yet. The big question marks are the confluence to our NE and the ridge in sctrl Canada. That won't be modeled well until we get closer..perhaps later tomorrow and Saturday morning.

[Amped]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Everyone knew it was coming, but it seems a bit early...I would assume this "trend" continues until at least 12z tomorrow. Even so, that still puts us almost 60 hours until the second part of the system with plenty of room for wobbles....

Too early, it will come back south. The real north trend starts 36hrs out right after news stations issue numbers, so the areas initially forcasted to get 10-15, end up with 90 percent rain.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS a north tick too. Pretty good for a lot of SNE away from the water. 850s get mild srn half of CT.

Frozen QPF is really what it’s about... 1.0” or greater liquid equivalent at 32F or below is/would be a significant winter event.  Regardless of mix or all snow.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

All models will head south in the evening mark my words

You’ll be cursing the N trend this time tomorrow.  

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Congrats Dendrite!

Does that cat live in NNE

[dryslot]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Does that cat live in NNE

I consider that CNE.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Frozen QPF is really what it’s about... 1.0” or greater liquid equivalent at 32F or below is/would be a significant winter event.  Regardless of mix or all snow.

Feel pretty good about all frozen just west of Newburyport-KBED and down to NW of PVD into interior SW CT. Might be ZR further south, but anything below 32F that falls I consider frozen. 

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is waffling territory. 00z could go the other way. I don't see trends one way or another yet. The big question marks are the confluence to our NE and the ridge in sctrl Canada. That won't be modeled well until we get closer..perhaps later tomorrow and Saturday morning.

Then again, looking closer for the western portions of CT/MA and NY the EPS precip numbers seemed to have increased and expanded, even the ( I know, I looked at the snow output too). So yes a tick north, but also an increase in moisture that didn't affect much of SNE negatively

[Hoth]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS a north tick too. Pretty good for a lot of SNE away from the water. 850s get mild srn half of CT.

Damn.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Frozen QPF is really what it’s about... 1.0” or greater liquid equivalent at 32F or below is/would be a significant winter event.  Regardless of mix or all snow.

What it will do is give a great base of wet snow then ice then snow so our chances of a white Cmas are very good with no big warmups in Dec

[ineedsnow]

Hate being one of the ja kpot zones this far out

[JC-CT]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What it will do is give a great base of wet snow then ice then snow so our chances of a white Cmas are very good with no big warmups in Dec

Ehhhh

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hate being one of the ja kpot zones this far out

I think N CT I s in the 4-8” zone with sig ice before back to snow 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Then again, looking closer for the western portions of CT/MA and NY the EPS precip numbers seemed to have increased and expanded, even the ( I know, I looked at the snow output too). So yes a tick north, but also an increase in moisture that didn't affect much of SNE negatively

Right, a good thump will help offset warming too.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Damn.

You still get half a foot on the 18Z with more to come post 90

[NYCweatherNOW]

My snowmap, check me out on instagram at @nycweathernow

 

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Then again, looking closer for the western portions of CT/MA and NY the EPS precip numbers seemed to have increased and expanded, even the ( I know, I looked at the snow output too). So yes a tick north, but also an increase in moisture that didn't affect much of SNE negatively

All that matters is frozen, these ticks are noise. Wholesale shifts are the ones you hope are a blip. I agree with your interpretation 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

My snowmap, check me out on instagram at @nycweathernow

 

Probably best to wait until Saturday for a snow map. Despite it seemingly being closer there is much to work out. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Probably best to wait until Saturday for a snow map. Despite it seemingly being closer there is much to work out. 

Right the start may be 3 days away but tail end is still 5 days out

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You still get half a foot on the 18Z with more to come post 90

I'm not concerning myself at this juncture; I was just bummed to see the south trend stop. Was hoping for a little more wiggle room.

[The 4 Seasons]

I'd put the bullseye much farther north than that map though if i were to make one, i cant see SW, S Central CT getting more snow than all of MA. Not right now anways.

[Logan11]

5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

My snowmap, check me out on instagram at @nycweathernow

 

Have to factor in that people in your C-2 and 2-4 zones of NY and MA will also see several inches probably from the initial warm advection ahead of he occlusion so probably nobody ends up with <2", unless way up north someplace maybe. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

I'd put the bullseye much farther north than that map though if i were to make one, i cant see SW, S Central CT getting more snow than all of MA. Not right now anways.

He's in the bronx, so it appears to simply be a matter of his goggles needing an adjustment.

[NYCweatherNOW]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

He's in the bronx, so it appears to simply be a matter of his goggles needing an adjustment.

Armonk

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

He's in the bronx, so it appears to simply be a matter of his goggles needing an adjustment.

It's that perspective bias, we even see this with the NWS. OKX treats the northern zones like Canada, and the southern zones like the tropics. Reminds me of that Mass-holes map that was posted in this forum.

You can even see it with this storm with the LFOs in CT. 4 Southern Zones in CT, which are the northern most zones of OKX were the snowiest but the southern Zones of ALY (Litchfield) and BOX (Hartford, Tolland, Windham) included more rain/sleet/mix and less snow than areas south of them.