Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It was in reference to OKX having no watch out when it was obvious. Water is just pouring out of the hill here. Imagine some flooding tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just heard the first reference to imagine if this was all snow................ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just heard the first reference to imagine if this was all snow................ A skinny Miley Cyrus fan in CT just jumped off the Charter Oak Bridge 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Scott's right ...the CONUS is mild to at times warm both in trends since October ( really ) and in the models, depending on model type and cycle ... amplitude therein. Except ...here. The problem with that... not dependable, and probably... sustainability is in question. You C.H. the flow some how and the whole thing flops warm really quick. Just look at that warm rainers we're getting in a month that's -3 to -5 at all climo sites, while also boasting some 150% of Dec snow norms when it's just the ides of the month - it's like, how could it be raining in with those two empirical metrics!! Yet here we are... It's because it's all "fragile" and not really based on a N/A pattern that is dependable. Thus... IFFY deal with it. Frankly, we need a bona fide -EPO with at least time-staggered +PNA pulses to sustain cold on a big enough scale that there is fiddling/wobble room. We had that ... for 10 days, and got a big event out of it... couched in a cold pattern. The evidence is there... the pattern changed we've been scraping by as winter enthusiasts ever since ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Scott's right ...the CONUS is mild to at times warm both in trends since October ( really ) and in the models, depending on model type and cycle ... amplitude therein. Except ...here. The problem with that... not dependable, and probably... sustainability is in question. You C.H. the flow some how and the whole thing flops warm really quick. Just look at that warm rainers we're getting in a month that's -3 to -5 at all climo sites, while also boasting some 150% of Dec snow norms when it's just the ides of the month - it's like, how could it be raining in with those two empirical metrics!! Yet here we are... It's because it's all "fragile" and not really based on a N/A pattern that is dependable. Thus... IFFY deal with it. Frankly, we need a bona fide -EPO with at least time-staggered +PNA pulses to sustain cold on a big enough scale that there is fiddling/wobble room. We had that ... for 10 days, and got a big event out of it... couched in a cold pattern. The evidence is there... the pattern changed we've been scraping by as winter enthusiasts ever since ... Mostly agree but acknowledged very cold air is modeled here within the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I dunno...despite a shit pattern we seem to be wintering nicely. Remember all the times last winter when scooter was disrobing over the wonderful pattern progged only to come up with snake eyes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I dunno...despite a shit pattern we seem to be wintering nicely. Remember all the times last winter when scooter was disrobing over the wonderful pattern progged only to come up with snake eyes? What’s happening in SNE is what happened in NNE last year. They were on the right side of the line and stayed there basically the whole winter. Until January, that is how we will continue to roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Isotherm and Bluewave seems to have nailed this winter so far........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What’s happening in SNE is what happened in NNE last year. They were on the right side of the line and stayed there basically the whole winter. Until January, that is how we will continue to roll. Except for two epic rainers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Nice cold shot coming in mid week. Coldest of the season for some 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Isotherm and Bluewave seems to have nailed this winter so far........ How so? Blue Wave and isotherm are on the warm train. isotherm called for +1 to 2 temperature departures for December. We are -2.3 so far this month with the bitter cold air mass coming Wednesday night through next Saturday. We're probably going to be -3 or better by the 21st not going to make that up the last 10 days. Also they're probably spin it because most of the country is warm except for our area but they specifically forecast for our area. Also if we get a few inches of snow on Monday will be very close to normal for December with two weeks to go. I will add that isotherm North Atlantic forecast is going to bust if guidance is correct with the Nao and ao. We will have had two episodes of negative Nao and the AO supposedly going to tank the last half of the month. His forecast called for no blocking in the Atlantic for December. And bluewaves mjo forecast is incorrect as it's going to probably miss the warm phases and come out in the cold of phases later this month. If I'm not mistaken he was calling for the same mjo propagation as last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 40 minutes ago, weathafella said: I dunno...despite a shit pattern we seem to be wintering nicely. Remember all the times last winter when scooter was disrobing over the wonderful pattern progged only to come up with snake eyes? I did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Stratton and Mount Snow came through the deluge just fine. Tons of cover at Stratton with the woods still snow covered. Good Snowmaking weather next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I did? Yes. I remember during a mild winter day you commented on the 11-15 and that theme was repeated often. You were right but sensible wx is more fun this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Isotherm and Bluewave seems to have nailed this winter so far........ False. Isotherm had a benign, mild month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yes. I remember during a mild winter day you commented on the 11-15 and that theme was repeated often. You were right but sensible wx is more fun this year so far. I think I remember talking about the pattern being favorable which It was, but as many of us have said, the details just can’t be nailed that far out. Sometimes that happens. And sometimes in what looks to be overall unfavorable patterns, you’ll get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think I remember talking about the pattern being favorable which It was, but as many of us have said, the details just can’t be nailed that far out. Sometimes that happens. And sometimes in what looks to be overall unfavorable patterns, you’ll get lucky. I think we were on the same page regarding December being variable, but not lacking for chances.. that's worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we were on the same page regarding December being variable, but not lacking for chances.. that's worked out. I was thinking AN temps and that doesn’t seem in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was thinking AN temps and that doesn’t seem in the cards. By the 20th we’re going to if anything increase our negative departures. It would take one heckuva torch the final 1/3rd of the month to erase that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: By the 20th we’re going to if anything increase our negative departures. It would take one heckuva torch the final 1/3rd of the month to erase that. Yeah as of now, I don’t see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Nice snowstorm signal on GEFS leading into xmas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was thinking AN temps and that doesn’t seem in the cards. I had slightly below normal for us... coldest NNE, moderating as you head down coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Could be some norlun action early next week as the pv drops in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Deep January style cold this week on euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Euro shows how to be an island of deep cold in a sea of warmth courtesy and of scooter highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Oh boy, that is an interesting look at d7. Don't think they quite phase this run but that's a powderkeg setup worth keeping an eye on if those two shortwaves keep showing up like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro shows how to be an island of deep cold in a sea of warmth courtesy and of scooter highs. Op moving to EPS Dec to rem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 It’s also finally shows the pre xmas potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro shows how to be an island of deep cold in a sea of warmth courtesy and of scooter highs. Op moving to EPS Dec to rem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Pushing 500dm thickness up here Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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