ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I saw SREFs in the BOX AFD the other day too.... talk about a model you never hear about anymore. It's a shame too. They used to be good or at least serviceable. But they lost their mojo in 2013 I think when they got rid of the ETA and then RSM members within like 12 months of each other. All i remember them for now is when you kept posting them in Jan/Feb 2015 when they would show a BTV jackpot and all other guidance was burying Scooter. We all pictured you using them to sooth the soul while downing your last bottle of scotch...lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: ECMWF UKMET RGEM ARPEGE GGEM NAM GFS ICON NAVGEM Wow you put the ARPEGE above the GFS and GEM. Does that mean you take it seriously and look at it regularly for forecasting? I was just referring to mid/long range global models so that would mean RGEM/NAM are cut and ARPEGE is #3 on your list? Damn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I saw SREFs in the BOX AFD the other day too.... talk about a model you never hear about anymore. The local forecast offices, at least in the northest, take that model somewhat seriously and do reference it often in winter forecasts i noticed. Which, is pretty sad. Because it really is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's a shame too. They used to be good or at least serviceable. But they lost their mojo in 2013 I think when they got rid of the ETA and then RSM members within like 12 months of each other. All i remember them for now is when you kept posting them in Jan/Feb 2015 when they would show a BTV jackpot and all other guidance was burying Scooter. We all pictured you using them to sooth the soul while downing your last bottle of scotch...lol. Passed out drunk face down on the keyboard while the SREFs loop on the computer screen....sounds about right for 2015 . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: ECMWF UKMET RGEM ARPEGE GGEM NAM GFS ICON NAVGEM Might be giving Reggie too much credit. Crushed it in '15, then hit the bottle hard in the postseason and never got his mojo back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Wow you put the ARPEGE above the GFS and GEM. Does that mean you take it seriously and look at it regularly for forecasting? I was just referring to mid/long range global models so that would mean RGEM/NAM are cut and ARPEGE is #3 on your list? Damn... Heh...I was kinda just pulling that list out of my rear. But it just seems like with the cold bias in the med/long range, its struggles with coastals (BL temps, precip, phasing, etc etc), and its tendency to always be an outlier, it just isn’t very useful. At least the Ukie tends to be #2 in H5 scores and the GGEM has caught up to the GFS at H5. The NAM can be a joke, but there’s times where it can be useful and onto something. Its biases tend to be predictable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 I think this is a very reasonable take for now. Not much more you can say. From the BTV AFD: Most operational solutions have trended further north with this feature with this morning's European model (ecmwf) and Gem the strongest of group. Other's including the GFS depict more of an open wave. Quantitative precipitation forecast details also differ considerably, but feeling is steadier precipitation will favor central and southern counties more than Intl border counterparts with mean totals perhaps a tad lighter than more bullish solutions. That said, thermal profiles suggest a rain or rain/snow mix should transition to all snow through the afternoon and especially by early evening as wet bulb processes drive temperatures downward. Light/occnly moderate snows then continue Thursday night before tapering off toward morning. It's too early to predict exact totals, but confidence is rather high we'll see the first area-wide accumulating snowfall during this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Might be giving Reggie too much credit. Crushed it in '15, then hit the bottle hard in the postseason and never got his mojo back. Nah...I’m not giving it a lot. Look what it’s above. It’s like the AFC East. 8-1, 6-2, and then everyone else is 1-7. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 37 minutes ago, eduggs said: I think the ICON is a really good model. Verification/ranking compared to the ECM and GFS would probably depend on the particular geophysical parameter and also region. It has performed well in Germany in terms of low level temperatures and about on par with the GFS in terms of precipitation forecasts (although FV3 has been poor lately). I think it's better than both the UK and the Canadian models, at least in Europe. Since it's a global model, it should perform well in the US, but I have not checked closely since I have been outside the US for a while. Agreed. It is #2 . FV3 is dead last in all facets. Why do people still call it the GFS, ? Mets worth their stones do not look at it or use it. Yet on here, you’ll see posts about it and people thinking that it has any credence. That to me is mind boggling . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 40 minutes ago, dendrite said: The GFS is definitely #2. #2 as in a steaming hot pile of dog dung in Ginxy’s backyard. You and Scooter with your obsession Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 And the 18z Euro ? ...so I'm trying to do a trace-back to root the N/stream amplitude and I'm finding that 30 hours from now, it will be slicing over top the Alaskan sector ...and then turning SSE toward an eventual border breach near eastern MT by 60 hours. Probably not until during that time span, ... between ~ 30 hours from 18z (like now) and 60 hours from, will we see 'solidification' in the models with a more stable and believable consensus. Prior to that... I have to guess at where in the hell that S/W actually originates; I suspect look to Siberia to find this f'n thing. We don't know what the hell the Russians are going to be sending our way - 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Passed out drunk face down on the keyboard while the SREFs loop on the computer screen....sounds about right for 2015 . The same bottle I had earlier that January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 The Euro is definately for 1st place but infallible it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 18z Euro is coming in a bit flatter through 72h. So it's prob not gonna be the wild solution that 12z had. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z Euro is coming in a bit flatter through 72h. So it's prob not gonna be the wild solution that 12z had. Might be better overall for us.. should know by 12z wednesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, Greg said: The Euro is an excellent choice for 1st place but infallible it is not. It’s not a choice, it is first in the standings...but yes, it can play bad at times and lose a game here or there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s not a choice, it is first in the standings...but yes, it can play bad at times and lose a game here or there. It’s definitely still the best. But I still say it’s not as good as it was before they upgraded it(or downgraded it lol) a few years back. Whatever they did to it...it’s not as good as it was before they did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Might be better overall for us.. should know by 12z wednesday.. I think we all know the way this is going 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Weatherbell support told me I can now post Euro images to AMWX. 18Z run is weaker with the low. Here is 12Z and 18Z comparison with there 10 to 1 snowfall ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 That was a gfs like move. Go wild and then Pedestrian overrunning 6 hours later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think we all know the way this is going Well 18z Euro has you at a half inch of snow and me at quarter inch of snow. Personally, that isn’t looking to snowy currently. Maybe it comes back again at 0z?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well 18z Euro has you at a half inch of snow and me at quarter inch of snow. Personally, that isn’t looking to snowy currently. Maybe it comes back again at 0z?? Don’t look at snowfall maps. Look at trends. That would be a nice 2-4” event for interior CT. We don’t want amped . We want 18z. Pope wants amped for his rains to Maine’s scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don’t look at snowfall maps. Look at trends. That would be a nice 2-4” event for interior CT. We don’t want amped . We want 18z. Pope wants amped for his rains to Maine’s scenario I would lock 2 to 4 in a second here.. but models are still all over. Hope were lucky and can cash in next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Yes, for most of us as Will has alluded to earlier, you want that jet streak to be just a tad or two stronger in the upper air flow to keep this thing suppressed just a little bit more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was a gfs like move. Go wild and then Pedestrian overrunning 6 hours later. The common denominator is not much south of the pike. That seems to be coming into focus if nothing else. Sloppy coating at the end here is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Don’t look at snowfall maps. Look at trends. That would be a nice 2-4” event for interior CT. We don’t want amped . We want 18z Ya I get it...flatter is better for us with this. But this is going back and forth still, it’s 90 hours out, so lots to be determined with this. I’m not so sure it’s trending in a snowy direction for us, like you seem to think? But we’ll see soon enough. At least it’s something to track with the possibility of it being wintry. That alone is a nice thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The common denominator is not much south of the pike. That seems to be coming into focus if nothing else. Sloppy coating at the end here is my guess. Well central MA south of pike could see some snow. I’m perfectly content with whatever happens. Some years we can’t even get these events in January lol. It’s just nice to entertain the idea. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The common denominator is not much south of the pike. That seems to be coming into focus if nothing else. Sloppy coating at the end here is my guess. I'd feel a lot better if I were along Rte 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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