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PrinceFrederickWx

Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest

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On 11/1/2019 at 2:48 AM, Roger Smith said:

BWI _ 20.5"

DCA _ 16.1"

IAD _ 27.3"

RIC _ 10.5"

SBY _ 12.5"

(could be adjusting this, at the moment I think the sweet spot for northeast US snowfall will be a bit north of your region but cold air will be available at least to mid-Jan and there is probably some chance of a big snowstorm before the pattern shifts to a milder second half of winter) _ some similarity to 95-96 so can't rule out that sort of outcome yet. A very good analogue seems to be 1971-72, how did you fare that winter? 

 

About avg in most places but it all came from a storm in November and then a weird late February rain to snow storm that was all gone a day later. In between it was a barren wasteland for snow. I doubt many would enjoy a repeat of that. Even I would come away somewhat disappointed by that despite “decent” numbers on paper. 

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On 10/29/2019 at 3:21 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

BWI: 2.7”
DCA: -231.6”
IAD: 21.1”
RIC: 23.2”

Tiebreaker SBY: 78.3”

Somehow, this reminds me of that old Saturday Night Live skit "Chicago Super Fans", where these 3 guys (I think George Wendt of "Cheers" was on that as a guest?) betting on what the Bears' score will be.  One of them predicted something like "Bears 72, Lions -28"...and another asked how you can get a negative score in football...to which the reply was "Hey, Ditka will find a way!!"

So with that...hey, DCA will find a way!! :P

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On 10/30/2019 at 9:54 AM, psuhoffman said:

What if there is no tomorrow?  There wasn’t one today! 

A'la "Kung Fu Panda"..."Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift.  That's why it's called the present!"  Sorry to go all zen there on your humor, haha!

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On 11/5/2019 at 4:27 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Our summer contest winner is hoping to extend his hot streak (pardon the pun). :lol:

Update.  I've come to my senses now.

BWI: 16.4"
DCA: 14.3"
IAD: 18.9"
RIC: 5.9"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 3.8"

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14 hours ago, mattie g said:

Since we're getting 8-12" next week, we're going to see a lot of revisions in here.

What’s always been funny over the years is watching the revisions back and forth throughout the month. In mid-November the hype builds and the weenie revisions start. Then later in the month the pattern inevitably goes to hell and you start seeing all the cliff-jumping revisions back. :lol:

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I am halfway up a mountain within sight of the BC-WA border and we got some snow in late September (quite a lot at higher elevations) and it has been almost bone dry since then. There is still a very thin snow cover on the local mountains from that dumping but nothing below 5500' asl. I have never seen such a dry pattern as we are in here at this time of year. 

Think it must mean that weird snowfall anomalies lie ahead, and by definition that means you get snow because zero snow there is not a weird snowfall anomaly. 

Will be boosting my earlier predictions slightly, just feels to me like one big storm is inevitable for your region with the strength of cold air masses combined with no cut off low tendencies in the southwest (meaning it won't end up wasted over the southern Rockies). 

Even so, expecting some very mild weather in the mix so this one big storm concept will have to be well timed and worth the pain of the other weeks of anomalous warmth. 

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On 10/29/2019 at 12:17 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It's time for the 5th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! Everyone is encouraged to play- including lurkers, new members and people outside the region!
 
You are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) for the four major airports: BWI, DCA, IAD and RIC. 

For the tiebreaker, you will choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury (SBY) or Lynchburg (LYH). Please choose only one- in the event of the tiebreaker, the difference at the airport you chose will be compared with the difference at the airport your opponent(s) chose. 

The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports (this link explains the calculation in more detail, for anyone who needs clarification: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50428-mid-atlantic-winter-2017-18-snowfall-contest/?do=findComment&comment=4656575 ).

Please use the following format when posting your forecast:
BWI:
DCA:
IAD:
RIC:

Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH):

The deadline for entries is Saturday, November 30 at 11:59pm. You are welcome to edit your forecast as many times as you want until the deadline. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well.

The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners:

2015-16: @Shadowzone

2016-17: @Stormpc

2017-18: @olafminesaw

2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc)

Good luck everyone!

You should include the airport averages in the original post.

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New Method this year.  "Alexa, give me a random number between 0 and 40..."

BWI:  10.0

DCA:  22.0

IAD:  9.0

RIC:  19.0

The Breaker SBY:  33.0...congrats SBY!  You can thank Amazon

 I guess it could happen, sharp cutoffs to the west and north = DCA, RIC AND SBY jackpotvilles!

 

 

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16 hours ago, attml said:

My prediction is as follows:

BWI: 52 inches
DCA: 31 inches
IAD: 39 inches
RIC: 12 inches

Tiebreaker (SBY): 16 inches

 

You're back- we missed you last year! I always love your Calls With Balls™ (although RIC is getting kinda shafted). :lol:

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BWI: 28"
DCA: 22"
IAD: 35"
RIC: 18"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 20"

MBY: 33"

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On 11/10/2019 at 4:03 PM, attml said:

My prediction is as follows:

BWI: 52 inches
DCA: 31 inches
IAD: 39 inches
RIC: 12 inches

Tiebreaker (SBY): 16 inches

 

That BWI number is almost as high as Maryland’s avg points allowed this fall.

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My swag:

BWI: 18
DCA: 15
IAD: 21
RIC: 10

Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): SBY 8

((and hoping for much less))

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