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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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It’s hard not to be  discouraged. Ryan Maue tweeted earlier about the euro ensembles latching onto warmth flooding the eastern 2/3 by next weekend. 
 

One would think with a solar minimum, neutral ENSO, things would align better than this. 

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4 hours ago, Chambana said:

He did a pivot from 2014-2015 and is now claiming 65-66 is a top analog. WB has been pounding the table, just like 65-66 winter will come roaring the 2nd half of the season! It’s comical. 

You have to wonder if Ryan Maue  left Weatherbell because of disagreements with the other staff members regarding climate change, or at least their style of weather forecasting.

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5 hours ago, buckeye said:

I think that's right.  All through December he was calling for the potential of an all-time coldest January for much of the east.  Ended up being a record high month :lol:

Joe is now pointing to the JMA (Japanese) model to back up his opinion that winter is going to roar back.

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Way too much Bustardi talk in this thread, dude is trash and has been for years. Not worth even acknowledging anymore with his clearly biased approach.

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Way too much Bustardi talk in this thread, dude is trash and has been for years. Not worth even acknowledging anymore with his clearly biased approach.

Tell us what you really think, no need to hold back here:lol:

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17 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Way too much Bustardi talk in this thread, dude is trash and has been for years. Not worth even acknowledging anymore with his clearly biased approach.

Bustardi blocked me a few years ago for calling him out on a busted forecast.. :)

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20 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Way too much Bustardi talk in this thread, dude is trash and has been for years. Not worth even acknowledging anymore with his clearly biased approach.

Not supporting the dude at all. Simply a good laugh during this horrible winter. 

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Tell us what you really think, no need to hold back here:lol:

Okay, I think he is a conman who bleeds idiots dry with terrible forecasts and denial of CC. He is a black eye of meteorology.

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12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Okay, I think he is a conman who bleeds idiots dry with terrible forecasts and denial of CC. He is a black eye of meteorology.

I took this guy seriously when I was like 13 years old.

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Jesus Christ, people, can we please get back on topic?  One person mentions JB and we get twenty f'n posts shi**ing on him.  Enough!

Agree, though he deserves 50 posts shitting on him :ph34r:

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Will the warm flip back to cold again(and then back and back and back) or is the warm going to stick?

Last winter lasted five weeks.  Maybe this winter will last two weeks.

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30 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Jesus Christ, people, can we please get back on topic?  One person mentions JB and we get twenty f'n posts shi**ing on him.  Enough!

:whistle:

Sorry, I can't help myself.  It's kinda like spiking the punch bowl at a real boring party.

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40 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Will the warm flip back to cold again(and then back and back and back) or is the warm going to stick?

Last winter lasted five weeks.  Maybe this winter will last two weeks.

Yep.  I started reading through the late January 2019 arctic outbreak thread...good stuff.

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54 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Will the warm flip back to cold again(and then back and back and back) or is the warm going to stick?

Last winter lasted five weeks.  Maybe this winter will last two weeks.

Take a look at the data for January 1950 in Toronto. Bear in mind that this followed a cold November. Lots of flip flopping that month...this month kind of looks similar.

 

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-06-13&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-13&mlyRange=1937-01-01|2013-06-01&StationID=5097&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2017&selRowPerPage=25&Line=61&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=Toronto&timeframe=2&Day=1&Year=1950&Month=1

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41 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

That winter was a moderate La Nina. Totally different atmospheric set-up despite the similar anomalies. 

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1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I gather it's now looking to be very warm for the last week of January? That's quite a flip, is it not? Wasn't it looking very cold for the same time period not so long ago?

Not very warm lol (other than op euro), but much milder than it was looking. The mildness appears to be brief however with these models you can't guess on anything.

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42 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

 January 1950 was one of the most roller coaster month you will ever see in the lakes, though it certainly leaned on the warm side.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Will the warm flip back to cold again(and then back and back and back) or is the warm going to stick?

Last winter lasted five weeks.  Maybe this winter will last two weeks.

2015-16 and 2016-17 were pretty abysmal outside of Dec 16 locally. 

It feels like our winters are getting shorter. 

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59 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

2015-16 and 2016-17 were pretty abysmal outside of Dec 16 locally. 

It feels like our winters are getting shorter. 

Bad stretch, it happens

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6 hours ago, mimillman said:

Bad stretch, it happens

Agree. Also, if anything our winters are getting longer because we seem to be getting earlier and later snowfalls now, regardless of what happens in between.  A longer Winter is not necessarily a better Winter, and vice versa, as obviously the meat of Winter is what is most important. 2015-16 and 2016-17 were back-to-back warm winters (though we surprisingly managed to do OK with snowfall), which followed back-to-back brutally cold winters in 2013-14 and 14-15.  2013-14 was the most severe Winter on record here. 

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GFS has been showing a major ice storm for eastern Iowa for next Wednesday since the 18z run yesterday.  Rates don't appear to be heavy but with the duration (over 24 hours) the ice accretion would easily exceed an inch.

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