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Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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This thread is for systems showing up in the medium-long range.

Have already been talking about it a bit in the seasonal thread, but the extended looks to have some unusually cold air to tap into with even some model/ensemble suggestion of a wintry system or two.  Nothing set in stone of course. 

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Gotta go UKMET/ECMWF over NCEP. Way to progressive of timeframe and cold air frankly isn't there. Very RNA trough pattern that looks to continue to around Halloween. October is usually the GFS's worst month and that tradition continues on.

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The ridge over the NE Pacific is progged to be robust and will send cold south (first into the west but it will swing east and may have staying power given the -NAO)...Canada and the northern Rockies have been building snow pack which will help.  That energy ejecting out of the SW the last couple days of the month could conceivably do something if it ejects right...the SE ridge fighting back probably favors parts of the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes over the Ohio Valley.  After that it stays chilly into early November.  

As nice as the EPS is, its warm bias in the extended has almost been as obnoxious as the GEFS cold bias...the EPS is up and down (probably slightly cool for say Chicago and slightly mild for Ohio overall) through the 29th/30th then quite chilly, so it’s not warm either. 

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

For better or worse, we'll be dealing with the gulf of alsaka ridge all winter

It can be good if it centers near the coast. Too far east and it's cold and dry. Further west and the storm track goes through the sub.

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2 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

12z GFS with first sticking snow day before Halloween

Pretty good consensus on a storm in that timeframe... at least for now lol

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The 00z GFS is really close to being a Halloween freakshow.  As is, it's an impressively deepening storm. 

But if the northern energy drops in a little sooner...

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The 00z GFS is really close to being a Halloween freakshow.  As is, it's an impressively deepening storm. 

But if the northern energy drops in a little sooner...

Argh. Deepens way too far to the east of us compared to the 06Z 10/20 run. Just raw crappiness, no fun weather for the north-central Midwest (WI/N. IL/E. IA/E. MN).

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51 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Euro crushes parts of IA/MN with a blizzard before Halloween and probably severe with upper 60 dews getting into srn IL and north of the OH River. 

This is the kind of winter I love, more of this!

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The GFS is lost right now. It can't barely function outside 48 hours. Funny thing though, by December, it will start functioning better.........The last 3 winters prove that.

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2 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Euro crushes parts of IA/MN with a blizzard before Halloween and probably severe with upper 60 dews getting into srn IL and north of the OH River. 

yes, definitely no wx zzzzz's around Halloween .    From high of 70 on the 31st to low of 30 on the 1st.   Lots of rain across the OV over the next 10 days too.   

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00z Euro continues to crush IA, MN and WI with a blizzard next week.  00z CMC has two snowstorms next week also.  06z GFS and 12z ICON shows nothing so far.  If the Euro or CMC verifies, look at the potential for widespread power outages due to most of the trees still having leaves on them (think of October 26, 1997).

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10-26-97 delivered a hvy 8" in Kzoo. Tree damage was extensive!  This one has low party @ A-L-E-K's place written all over it, so main concern on this side of the lake looks to be more wind and wave damage. NOT a good time to be a WMI lakeshore property owner. :yikes:

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