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Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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2 minutes ago, Natester said:

Due to wind, snow or both?

"There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low.

There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level."

 

Per Hoosier's read on the winds at 850 mixing down in SWMI. I'm too far inland to score much snow as it stands now, so mainly just the winds. 11-17-13 was the snow-less version and the whole town went dark. 

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44 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

"There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low.

There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level."

 

Per Hoosier's read on the winds at 850 mixing down in SWMI. I'm too far inland to score much snow as it stands now, so mainly just the winds. 11-17-13 was the snow-less version and the whole town went dark. 

Yikes!  For here, the winds won't be too bad in the late week system (although gusts will approach 40 mph), although we could get 4-6 inches of snow from that.  The early week system snow line looks to be just west of west of here.  Nonetheless, going to be disastrous for the crops as the harvest hasn't even began.  The October 26, 1997 snowstorm ruined almost all of the soybean crop and half of the corn crop in the affected areas, according to the NCDC event log for that snowstorm.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low.

There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level.

Was that the 24/12z ICON that showed those gusts at 850?

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15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Was that the 24/12z ICON that showed those gusts at 850?

I didn't check the ICON winds.  Was talking about the Euro.

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28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I didn't check the ICON winds.  Was talking about the Euro.

12z ICON had the low travel due north from extreme western Kentucky into extreme southeast Wisconsin, there it does a loop.  850 mb winds are over 100 KNOTS in east central Iowa in the ICON.  Let that sink in, that's surface gusts in the 70+ mph range.  Thankfully the Euro and CMC has the low much further east.

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On 10/23/2019 at 9:12 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

I didn't think 65" in 24 hours was possible here. Detroit can definitely break 100" in a year given their location. Just need the right setup. 

True. I had 96.2" and Detroit 94.9" in 13-14. But it wasnt JUST the snow, it was the severity of the winter. The brutal cold, winds, and nonstop blowing snow which is why i have a hard time seeing that winter matched for overall severity. In shear terms of snowfall, especially with it seemingly increasing in the lakes, id say its definitely possible.

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51 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

True. I had 96.2" and Detroit 94.9" in 13-14. But it wasnt JUST the snow, it was the severity of the winter. The brutal cold, winds, and nonstop blowing snow which is why i have a hard time seeing that winter matched for overall severity. In shear terms of snowfall, especially with it seemingly increasing in the lakes, id say its definitely possible.

I truly believe that Winter (13-14') was a once in 50 year event.  I would be amazed to see something like that come together again, in my lifetime.  

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4 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I truly believe that Winter (13-14') was a once in 50 year event.  I would be amazed to see something like that come together again, in my lifetime.  

I'm sure peeps thought the same after 77-78. Then we got 81-82 just four years later. Can't rule anything out tbh. 

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On 10/24/2019 at 7:45 AM, buckeye said:

Interesting model test to see what actually evolves.  In the past couple of seasons how many deepening sub 990 lows for the lakes and OV were modeled this far out only to go from thump to real time dud.  

....another banner model season ahead

 

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6 hours ago, buckeye said:

....another banner model season ahead

 

You mean like 5 years ago the GFS would spit out a 10 day clown map of 2 feet from St. Louis to Detroit or the last couple years a 3 day clown map of 36 inches from Dallas to Toledo.  I swear the last couple years all of the models have been terrible. The local forecast offices need to get off the model teet and get back to some good old fashioned forecasting.  Don't bash me I'm just sayin'.  Reliance on technology can be a crutch when there's a bug in the system. Youtube, Tesla, sleeping drivers.   Just sayin' :whistle:

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In the spring. I can remember rain and cool locking in, which felt like forever. This flip to wintery weather, has me a bit concerned. In my mind, an early onset doesn't always equate to a good long winter trend. The signals are looking promising, by mid/late November we will know for sure.

Snow in the Halloween timeframe in Chicago,  I wonder of those years. How those winters panned out for the Great Lakes region?

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3 hours ago, DAFF said:

In the spring. I can remember rain and cool locking in, which felt like forever. This flip to wintery weather, has me a bit concerned. In my mind, an early onset doesn't always equate to a good long winter trend. The signals are looking promising, by mid/late November we will know for sure.

Snow in the Halloween timeframe in Chicago,  I wonder of those years. How those winters panned out for the Great Lakes region?

Your comment prodded me to search for that answer. I used ORD from 1958-2018 since it is the hub of the subforum.  I used the criteria of more than 1" of snow at ORD through Nov. 15th and the resulting winter totals. It looks to me like there is little correlation, but judge for yourself from these numbers.

1967 - 6.7" - 28.4"

1989 - 6.6" - 33.8"

1959 - 6.3" - 50.9"

2018 - 2.1" - 49.5"

1995 - 1.9" - 23.9"

1976 - 1.8" - 24.7"

2014 - 1.5" - 50.7"

1971 - 1.1" -  36.9"

However, if the cutoff is Nov. 5th, then there are only three years with more than an inch of snow: 1967, 1989, and 1976. A small sample size, but those years were less than stellar.

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Here are some of the snowiest Octobers at Grand Rapids Michigan. Most went on to be good to in some cases great winters for cold-n-snow. '67 and '97 Nino's being the exception.

  1. 1967   8.4”
  2. 1925   7.5”
  3. 1989   5.8”
  4. 1917   3.0”
  5. 1962   2.6”
  6. 1997   2.6”
  7. 1992   2.4”
  8. 2006   2.1”

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Definitely looks like an early dose of Winter. But we had quite bc a few snowfalls last November before December turned very mild and then Winter roared back in January. Hopefully this Christmas season has lots of snow to go with it!

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Just thought I would note it's been a long time since we opened our wintry period of the year with a -PNA; I have kept close track of the indices for PNA the last several years, and I remember them being positive most years come November/early December (at best neutral) so seeing that helps to have an active start to the cold season.

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5 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

I am amazed at how quickly the European locks in the "cold" for much of the eastern part of country.....

ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png

Its gone. It still falls for the models. After 120 hours, you get some wild swings still yet. Now come by December...........

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^

It's the day after Halloween and there is 4" of snow on the ground with temps in the teens. We are expected to be in the 30's and 40's for highs for the foreseeable future. Average temps for now are mid 50's. I've tracked 2-3 snow events this week. I'm normally not on this board until late November. Trust me, it's locked in.

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There will be some warmups but it looks below average overall.  It is quite something to see the cold air available to tap into at this time of year.  I could definitely envision another snow or two around here over the next week or two. 

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