• Member Statistics

    15,773
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

That GFS storm is a total freakshow.  Besides wrecking the shorelines as it occludes and slows down, it has afternoon temps still in the single digits in parts of IA/IL on Nov 12th.  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree. 0z ECMWF had an interesting set-up. 

ecmwf.png.e6fd4b45979b8faa269723ebe3d234f7.png

 

12z Euro is a bit south.  Does manage to have a band of lake enhanced snow around here as 850 mb temps pushing -10C are cold enough to overcome the still relative bath water of Lake Michigan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is trying with that storm next week.  Just not good enough.  Need to bring the northern stream wave in farther west.

The 18z ICON is what happens when that happens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

..saved that for posterity. If only..

Yeah not holding my breath on that one... at least as far as something that deep.  :lol:

Just a general thought going forward this season... some of these extremely cold GFS runs have me wondering if we are going to see an extreme cold discharge into the CONUS at some point.  We had the extreme cold at the end of January this year and going back into the 1980s and 1990s, there are multiple cases of extreme cold getting into the Midwest in back to back winters or just skipping over 1 winter.  Heck there has already been some impressive cold especially out west.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah not holding my breath on that one... at least as far as something that deep.  :lol:

Just a general thought going forward this season... some of these extremely cold GFS runs have me wondering if we are going to see an extreme cold discharge into the CONUS at some point.  We had the extreme cold at the end of January this year and going back into the 1980s and 1990s, there are multiple cases of extreme cold getting into the Midwest in back to back winters or just skipping over 1 winter.  Heck there has already been some impressive cold especially out west.

Not sure if you're a fan of analogs or not, but most of the serious ones include such. Some, if you go way back would be on the historic/epic level. As you mentioned, we've already seen the all-time October low temp record set for the CONUS. Not to mention all those records from 1917 that Denver's been knocking off left and right. I personally feel there's a good shot at it. And I don't mean a 1 or 3 day PV swing-thru seen last January and in Jan 2014. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To all the weather weenies out there:

Pivotalweather has created Hi-res ECMWF maps to 240 hours (surface and precipitation parameters)

RRWmWWx.png

 

mirHk1g.png

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, A-L-E-K said:

U said that already and u aren't even right

Oh really? A trough centered over the eastern lakes isn't a cold and dry pattern? That is news to me. Sure you could end up with a dusty clipper or two but that isn't a favorable pattern for this subforum unless you are downwind of the lakes.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, buckeye said:

Personal opinion , (and I'm sure not very popular here), but too early for this stuff.    I know there are some exceptions but doesn't a colder and snowier November pattern usually get followed by a mild and dry December?

It is very early for this kind of cold and suppression. Going from late summer to dead of winter with minimal snow isn't something appealing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, all this talk doesn’t matter anymore, since the 12z gfs lost the arctic outbreak. Sure, it’s still generally a bit colder than normal and therefore could open the door for a possible snow event...but the cold isn’t noteworthy. 
 

Obviously 492 dm thicknesses in the northern plains were overdone...but I expected a modest correction to 498 or 504...not 516. That’s a 15-20 degree difference in sensible weather. Plus, the angle of the cold is wrong now; too far east.

I guess we deserve this for looking at Day 7-9 op runs...but that’s what winter weenies (including me) look at in November. You would think Day 7-9 has some general predictability. If it were Day 10+, that’s different. 
 

Anyway, I suppose it’s best to give it a day or two and not jump off the train yet...but we’ll see. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gefs are all over the place in the 168-240 evolution as you would expect this time of year. Some pretty warm ones as the pattern degrades and some pretty cold ones as it stays alive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Well, all this talk doesn’t matter anymore, since the 12z gfs lost the arctic outbreak. Sure, it’s still generally a bit colder than normal and therefore could open the door for a possible snow event...but the cold isn’t noteworthy. 
 

Obviously 492 dm thicknesses in the northern plains were overdone...but I expected a modest correction to 498 or 504...not 516. That’s a 15-20 degree difference in sensible weather. Plus, the angle of the cold is wrong now; too far east.

I guess we deserve this for looking at Day 7-9 op runs...but that’s what winter weenies (including me) look at in November. You would think Day 7-9 has some general predictability. If it were Day 10+, that’s different. 
 

Anyway, I suppose it’s best to give it a day or two and not jump off the train yet...but we’ll see. 

Yeah I was surprised to see this much discussion on a GFS run this far out.  Think the Halloween event triggered some irrational thinking like if you had a first date with the head cheerleader in high school and she teased you into thinking the second date was going to be THE date lol.  Regardless I bought a bottle of my winter single barrel a little early this year just in case.  :tomato:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

Yeah I was surprised to see this much discussion on a GFS run this far out.  Think the Halloween event triggered some irrational thinking like if you had a first date with the head cheerleader in high school and she teased you into thinking the second date was going to be THE date lol.  Regardless I bought a bottle of my winter single barrel a little early this year just in case.  :tomato:

Yeah my posts were only in reference to the maps being posted not whether they'd verify. It isn't worth going that in depth on a day 10 forecast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.