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Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Not sure on other models, but 12z GFS definitely filled in the MichINDOH region nicely. 

 

20191104 12z gfs_total_snow_us_fh84_trend (1).gif

I like the pivotal map better. :snowing:

The wave that contributes to Thursday's snow is still in no man's land well north of Alaska so definitely could see some model shifting to come... hopefully for the better.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I like the pivotal map better. :snowing:

The wave that contributes to Thursday's snow is still in no man's land well north of Alaska so definitely could see some model shifting to come... hopefully for the better.

haha can't imagine why?? 

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Some lake enhancement does look likely, probably starting out around Chicago metro before shifting into IN/MI.  Can't rule out some rain or more of a mix at first but as 850 mb temps drop, all snow should be seen even all the way to the shoreline.  Lake temps generally running in the mid-upper 40s will yield delta T initially in the mid teens before increasing to around 20C.

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This would be an easy 3-6" type lake enhanced around the southern end of Lake Michigan on Thursday if it were a bit colder.  But the marginal thermal profiles (especially early on) are a problem which will hurt accumulations.  Could be a sweet spot that is in the band but far enough inland to escape some of the marine warmth and accumulate more efficiently but it is too early to try to figure that out.  

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On 11/3/2019 at 12:03 PM, beavis1729 said:

Well, all this talk doesn’t matter anymore, since the 12z gfs lost the arctic outbreak. Sure, it’s still generally a bit colder than normal and therefore could open the door for a possible snow event...but the cold isn’t noteworthy. 
 

Obviously 492 dm thicknesses in the northern plains were overdone...but I expected a modest correction to 498 or 504...not 516. That’s a 15-20 degree difference in sensible weather. Plus, the angle of the cold is wrong now; too far east.

I guess we deserve this for looking at Day 7-9 op runs...but that’s what winter weenies (including me) look at in November. You would think Day 7-9 has some general predictability. If it were Day 10+, that’s different. 
 

Anyway, I suppose it’s best to give it a day or two and not jump off the train yet...but we’ll see. 

The cold is more impressive again on the recent model runs, and not just the GFS.

We'll see if it trends back the other way again but it is starting to get out of total goofball range.

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9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The cold is more impressive again on the recent model runs, and not just the GFS.

We'll see if it trends back the other way again but it is starting to get out of total goofball range.

Agree, now within 5-6 days instead of 7-10.  Also, it looks like there could be a bit of snowpack in the source region (Upper Midwest), which is noteworthy this time of year.  If all of this comes together, areas here or nearby could be close to record cold. 

Probably getting ahead of myself again :axe:...but here are some records that *could* be in jeopardy:

Madison:  Record low 9 on 11/11 (2017), 7 on 11/12 (1979).  Record low max 23 on 11/11 (1894).  

Rockford:  Record low 14 on 11/10 (2017), 10 on 11/11 (1926).  Record low max 29 on 11/10 (1933), 26 on 11/11 (1986), 27 on 11/12 (1940).   

ORD:  Record low 18 on 11/10 (2017), 15 on 11/11 (1950).  Record low max 28 on each of 11/10 (1926), 11/11 (1894), 11/12 (1995).  

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2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Agree, now within 5-6 days instead of 7-10.  Also, it looks like there could be a bit of snowpack in the source region (Upper Midwest), which is noteworthy this time of year.  If all of this comes together, areas here or nearby could be close to record cold. 

Probably getting ahead of myself again :axe:...but here are some records that *could* be in jeopardy:

Madison:  Record low 9 on 11/11 (2017), 7 on 11/12 (1979).  Record low max 23 on 11/11 (1894).  

Rockford:  Record low 14 on 11/10 (2017), 10 on 11/11 (1926).  Record low max 29 on 11/10 (1933), 26 on 11/11 (1986), 27 on 11/12 (1940).   

ORD:  Record low 18 on 11/10 (2017), 15 on 11/11 (1950).  Record low max 28 on each of 11/10 (1926), 11/11 (1894), 11/12 (1995).  

IF this airmass doesn't moderate in the coming days and there is a night or two of favorable radiational cooling, then we could see something pretty crazy especially where there is snow on the ground.

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Crazy. But even middle TN isn't out of the woods on measurable snow next Monday. For us to get anything above a trace this time of a year is a big deal.

Euro Snow Mean.png

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Check this out on the 00z GEM.  Look near Cleveland.  It seems like a mesolow but I have never seen one so well defined on a model.  Like this is ridiculous.  There appears to be one around Lake Michigan at the same time, but weaker.  

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_28.thumb.png.018974300256712871fea26d55ad7786.png

gem_mslp_uv850_ncus_29.thumb.png.50899958aaba7cd19435c38a56e5320d.png

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Remember the monster low that the GFS blew up a few days ago as the cold air dumped in?  That was an extreme outcome but let's see if things can trend any better with this in coming days.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.thumb.png.a8d3a9633ef79b44e8ac9a6085de6d03.png

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40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Remember the monster low that the GFS blew up a few days ago as the cold air dumped in?  That was an extreme outcome but let's see if things can trend any better with this in coming days.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.thumb.png.a8d3a9633ef79b44e8ac9a6085de6d03.png

GEFS seem to be somewhat correcting it's progressive bias, another good sign that this may just come back

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yeah big picture looks good, especially for favored areas to my east. still holding out hope to get in on a little of the action but gonna depend on how things break and way too early to say

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4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

yeah big picture looks good, especially for favored areas to my east. still holding out hope to get in on a little of the action but gonna depend on how things break and way too early to say

18z ICON

source.gif.a492f32af1d945d7fe393ea6c09d55e7.gif

Nice period of lake enhancement in ne IL too.  

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A number of GEFS members have a better look than the op.  I did read that the ensembles did not get the upgrade that the GFS did so maybe a bit of an apples to oranges comparison but still nice to see.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

A number of GEFS members have a better look than the op.  I did read that the ensembles did not get the upgrade that the GFS did so maybe a bit of an apples to oranges comparison but still nice to see.

iirc, GEFS had a hot hand last winter too. I'd lean on them over the OP any day

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I sure hope all this cold and snow early isn't a jinx on the main cold season. Although, it didn't matter in the late 70's. But those are the only winters I recall an early start that stuck.There I said it.

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