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Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Agree. Also, if anything our winters are getting longer because we seem to be getting earlier and later snowfalls now, regardless of what happens in between.  A longer Winter is not necessarily a better Winter, and vice versa, as obviously the meat of Winter is what is most important. 2015-16 and 2016-17 were back-to-back warm winters (though we surprisingly managed to do OK with snowfall), which followed back-to-back brutally cold winters in 2013-14 and 14-15.  2013-14 was the most severe Winter on record here. 

2015-2016 and 2016-2017 both made the top 10 warmest winters on record at Dayton. 2015-2016 had a snowfall total of 12.7 inches while 2016-2017 was the most recent single-digit snowfall season with only 8.5 inches. March 2016 almost made it to one of the top 10 warmest Marches on record while March 2017 ended slightly warmer than normal, despite a prolonged cold period in the 2/3 of March. The coldest low temperature so far (and will likely be for) this season was 5 degrees back on November 13th with the second coldest low of 8 degrees on December 19th. It is still currently a lock that we'll still have single-digit snowfall totals after we begin February. Could be one of those years that we may not really have to pay for it as much in March and/or April. #springiscoming #twentyhundredandburnttoacrisp

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33 minutes ago, Spartman said:

2015-2016 and 2016-2017 both made the top 10 warmest winters on record at Dayton. 2015-2016 had a snowfall total of 12.7 inches while 2016-2017 was the most recent single-digit snowfall season with only 8.5 inches. March 2016 almost made it to one of the top 10 warmest Marches on record while March 2017 ended slightly warmer than normal, despite a prolonged cold period in the 2/3 of March. The coldest low temperature so far (and will likely be for) this season was 8 degrees back on December 19th. It is still currently a lock that we'll still have single-digit snowfall totals after we begin February. Could be one of those years that we may not really have to pay for it as much in March and/or April. #springiscoming #twentyhundredandburnttoacrisp

You may start feb in single digits for snow. But dont count on your lowest temp already having been set. Probably another late spring.

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3 hours ago, Spartman said:

2015-2016 and 2016-2017 both made the top 10 warmest winters on record at Dayton. 2015-2016 had a snowfall total of 12.7 inches while 2016-2017 was the most recent single-digit snowfall season with only 8.5 inches. March 2016 almost made it to one of the top 10 warmest Marches on record while March 2017 ended slightly warmer than normal, despite a prolonged cold period in the 2/3 of March. The coldest low temperature so far (and will likely be for) this season was 5 degrees back on November 13th with the second coldest low of 8 degrees on December 19th. It is still currently a lock that we'll still have single-digit snowfall totals after we begin February. Could be one of those years that we may not really have to pay for it as much in March and/or April. #springiscoming #twentyhundredandburnttoacrisp

Winters that have single-digit snowfall at the end of January are VERY unlikely to end up even close to normal.  It's only happened a few times, and none of those were as warm as this winter has been.  In Columbus, there have been 50 winters where snowfall was in the single digits through January 31st.  Of those 50, just 4 had enough snowfall the rest of the winter to reach or exceed normal.  2019-20 is almost guaranteed to end up well below normal.  The average snowfall of those 50 is almost 13" below normal.  The story is similar for Dayton.  February-March would have to be epic, and that seems unlikely at this point.  The winters in reference are 1905-1906, which had one of the snowiest Aprils on record, 1959-1960, which had a fantastic late February and March, 1970-1971 which had a rare 9" snow in February and 1992-1993, which benefitted some from the Blizzard of 93.

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1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Does snowstormcanuck post here anymore?

I've seen one post from him this winter, so he does still occasionally check in.

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49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So, everyone ready to dive in to the late week/weekend storm?

Rainer. I learn from the best.

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As expected, mid-month has brought a pattern change, which started with our crap-tastic storm system last weekend. Increased chances for snow and cold are possible/likely for the foreseeable future, compared to what we have seen thus far this winter. However, I am not as gung-ho as others regarding a sustained winter period for the next several weeks.

While the AO/NAO/EPO have been trending down, from being well positive to being in the vicinity of neutral to low end positive for the near future and extended, no serious dip into negative territory looks likely. (There has actually been a trend among ensembles to bring back a well positive EPO, but I'm not fully on-board with that for now.) Additionally, the deep -PNA that we've been in and needed to continue is expected to end, with it likely heading to around neutral to low end positive. Additionally, the MJO has been rolling through deep phases 4-5 and now 6. There is high agreement in rolling through phase 6-7, and then looping back  into the COD, before exiting once again into warmer phases most likely. I do think there is some chance we do clip phase 8 for a short time, though. Add in that the main PV will be in an unfavorable area for the period, only smaller/brief lobes may quickly slide through nearby.

Thinking we see continued/additional shots of cold/snow potential, definitely more-so than we've seen thus far this winter, which is fairly easy to attain. However, I definitely don't foresee any sustained/long period of cold/snows, with several mild periods/rainers still mixed in...just perhaps not AS mild as they have been.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

So, everyone ready to dive in to the late week/weekend storm?

  With nothing but a possible dab the next 10 days around here on the models (except for the Canuk :weenie:), this January has the potential to be pretty much snowless here except for a couple dustings.  If that pans out then I'll be looking for a Feb. early March big dog to bookend us the other 2/3rds to our average. 

  Still learning the teleconection stuff but there were several really strong TC's in the WPAC late this year and am just curious if they just pumped extra heat into the northern latitudes and into the Pacific jet and how that influences the PV behavior. 

  At least it doesn't look like the deep freeze is setting in over the next couple weeks.  I might start to lose it if we start getting 1050-60 Canadian ridges suppressing the storm track south or east.  Current pattern sucks but has a better chance for something as opposed to a deep cold snowless depre ..er..suppression. 

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20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Comical...

image.png.e13b9227a4f87f86674afd30bb376777.png

I'd assume its correlated with the MJO moving through phases 4-5-6? We'll see if that changes come mid-Feb, but for now we won't be seeing cold outbreaks anytime soon. The AO/NAO are + too. 

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The ensembles have once again returned to a colder pattern beginning in early Feb. Lets see if this time sticks. I do like how it looks to remain active, might as well try and luck into another nice snowstorm lol.

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9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The ensembles have once again returned to a colder pattern beginning in early Feb. Lets see if this time sticks. I do like how it looks to remain active, might as well try and luck into another nice snowstorm lol.

good luck...it's gonna take quite a bit

U.jpg

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Weird how the MJO completely stops progressing and dives into the COD.  No gradual diminishing of the forward motion just a complete stop and almost a retrogression as it does fade to nothing.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

good luck...it's gonna take quite a bit

U.jpg

Im not the best with indicies...all i know is if it remains active in the dead of winter and there's no torch (which there is not), can easily have more snow fun.

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Im not the best with indicies...all i know is if it remains active in the dead of winter and there's no torch (which there is not), can easily have more snow fun.

Nothing's impossible, especially with the luck you guys have had, but it's really hard to get anything good out of those charts.   My years of watching this stuff has shown me that when the models are showing an outcome that flies in the face of the indices, almost always the correction ends up on the side of the models, (see current storm).   Then again the indices can change quickly too....but they've been stuck on hot mess mode most of the winter so far.    

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22 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Nothing's impossible, especially with the luck you guys have had, but it's really hard to get anything good out of those charts.   My years of watching this stuff has shown me that when the models are showing an outcome that flies in the face of the indices, almost always the correction ends up on the side of the models, (see current storm).   Then again the indices can change quickly too....but they've been stuck on hot mess mode most of the winter so far.    

I certainly hope it changes for the better for all of us. What i do find encouraging for the remaining 3 months of the potential snow season is that we have now locally 4 very unusually moisture laden storms this cold season.

Nov 11/12 (hvy snow)

Dec 28/29 (hvy rain)

Jan 10-12 (hvy rain, ended as ice/snow)

Jan 18 (hvy snow, ended as ice/rain)

 

It would not be uncommon to see just one such storm (moisture wise) the entire winter season, and weve seen 4 at the halfway point. Again, all of this does not mean good will happen. Just as a cold pattern does not guarantee good clippers (which would be our savior in a suppresion pattern). This is FAR from the winter of my dreams, but locally it could certainly be worse, so what else can you do but take your chances moving forward? 

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