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bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Today saw New York City reach 90°. As a result, August now has a positive monthly anomaly near 0.4°. Overall, August remains on course to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Anchorage, which came off its warmest month on record, remains on track to record its warmest summer on record. There is also a chance that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around August 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +7.46 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.676. A general tendency for blocking could persist into the last week of August. By that time, the AO could move toward neutral to positive values. This evolution of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August.

On August 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.754 (RMM). The August 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.348.

Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 64% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

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23 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I haven’t heard thunder in what feels like a month. It’s only rained (>0.01”) on 9 calendar days so far in July-August.

Long Island is basically Aruba, with slightly cooler nights sometimes.

We had thunder last night

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3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Bronx is about to get a severe thunderstorm. That’s one heck of a cell. imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff

67475511-3C09-4E2F-B3C2-2FA171D4E09C.png

Ah I missed it while at the beach, Robert Moses. so foggy over there took a long time to burn off, but turned out nice when it finally did. Everyone talking about this t storm that came through at home. No rain now, but lots of lightning in the distance. 

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The storms here have been accompanied by frequent lightning flashes this weekend, but almost no clearly visible bolts. I assume IC lightning is favored vs. CG with marginal lapse rates. Or maybe you just don't see them with the high dews/low LCLs? 

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Storms blew up just to my east. Nice little cell in central Suffolk, I see the lightning. Good thing I watered the lawn. Commack has a rain shield the summer. Never seen anything like it.

 

81D41D78-6AC4-4710-9128-728A25697D2A.png

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you know at some point in this pattern there's going to be a region wide deluge

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28 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you know at some point in this pattern there's going to be a region wide deluge

Probably Wednesday afternoon into. Thursday morning I expect a good amount of rain

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5 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Hearing lots of distant rumbles of thunder to my north here in Sheepshead Bay 

I just came out of the Jamaica Bay wildlife Sanctuary and  heard the rumbling too, went to the bridge and took photos

20190818180231_IMG_3467_20190819001400019.jpg

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Next 8 days are averaging 75.5degs., or 2degs. AN 

Month to date is  +0.6[76.5].         Should be   +1.0[76.2] by the 27th.

75.5* here at 6am.     75.7* at 7am.    76.7* at 8am with an unclean look/feel.    77.0* at 9am, Foggy <3.0miles.     Skew-T says this should clear before any rain near 5pm. 79.0* by 11am and hazy blue skies.

 

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10 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The storms here have been accompanied by frequent lightning flashes this weekend, but almost no clearly visible bolts. I assume IC lightning is favored vs. CG with marginal lapse rates. Or maybe you just don't see them with the high dews/low LCLs? 

I was in NJ and there was a fair bit of C to G lightning that we could see from the GSP. It was a pretty good sized standalone cell to the east of the parkway with a nice rain column and high top. I like watching stuff like that evolve while I'm traveling.

 

Is it really going to be wet every day this week? One more beach day before the kids go back to school would be nice. Which day is most likely to be worth the effort and is early that much better to be worth the extra effort?

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26 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I was in NJ and there was a fair bit of C to G lightning that we could see from the GSP. It was a pretty good sized standalone cell to the east of the parkway with a nice rain column and high top. I like watching stuff like that evolve while I'm traveling.

 

Is it really going to be wet every day this week? One more beach day before the kids go back to school would be nice. Which day is most likely to be worth the effort and is early that much better to be worth the extra effort?

cold front goes through Wed/Thurs-so Friday would be the driest day....

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11 hours ago, psv88 said:

Storms blew up just to my east. Nice little cell in central Suffolk, I see the lightning. Good thing I watered the lawn. Commack has a rain shield the summer. Never seen anything like it.

 

81D41D78-6AC4-4710-9128-728A25697D2A.png

Blew up literally a mile or so to my east, after sliding just to my north by a fraction of a mile. Not a drop here, however the dew point dropped considerably after it passed.

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17 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Blew up literally a mile or so to my east, after sliding just to my north by a fraction of a mile. Not a drop here, however the dew point dropped considerably after it passed.

Yeah, that was the 2nd most interesting thing about those storms for me yesterday. Didn't take long to recover overnight, though.

There was a lot of cloud-to-air lightning with the cells near the city yesterday afternoon and 1 "bolt from the blue" here in BK. Haven't seen that in awhile.

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8 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Yeah, that was the 2nd most interesting thing about those storms for me yesterday. Didn't take long to recover overnight, though.

There was a lot of cloud-to-air lightning with the cells near the city yesterday afternoon and 1 "bolt from the blue" here in BK. Haven't seen that in awhile.

Yeah I was outside when that happened I was like wtf

4652C9D4-700A-4F87-9884-C9317CF58964.png

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One of the nice things about the SPC soundings is that they show the max mid-level lapse rates, which may not always correspond to the standard 700-500mb levels. Both IAD and OKX sampled lapse rates above 7C/km this morning. In fact, they're steep from ~950 up to ~600mb. The warmer temps at 500mb are what's keeping 700-500 rates much lower.

Despite the fcst modest shear, this is a decent signal for some strong winds this afternoon:

OKX_081919_12Z.thumb.png.d822e1b77fd302312d657a7dc4bb67c8.png

Convection should pop pretty quickly near and just west of the city by 2-3 this afternoon. 

 

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Blew up literally a mile or so to my east, after sliding just to my north by a fraction of a mile. Not a drop here, however the dew point dropped considerably after it passed.

Yeah, several hours of lower dewpoints with the wind shift and storms before rebounding back to 75+.

D97E13B4-7C65-4142-B37F-05AD04558C90.png.e816c60e3a684e1a70ef58010398ed59.png

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, several hours of lower dewpoints with the wind shift and storms before rebounding back to 75+.

A lot of guidance showing the same thing this evening, except dew points may not recover until tomorrow night. Might not see JFK make it to a Td of 75 tomorrow, but it's looking more likely that Thursday stays humid w/ the slower advance of cooler/drier air.

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another low passes near the area wednesday. they should just issue the flood warnings now

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13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

another low passes near the area wednesday. they should just issue the flood warnings now

And drought warnings for the north shore of suffolk

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57 minutes ago, saberonyx said:

I went down to the Wantagh Marina and it's all low soup clouds with a peek of what's up there. 

videotogif_2019.08.19_10.26.14.gif

Awesome shot, that’s right down the block from my house. 

Finally had a decent amount of rain last night at home and a full on monsoon at work on the uws. Couldn’t have come at better time as I was heading into emergency watering.

looking forward to a good lighting show this evening 

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Ooh boy I got a whopping .23" yesterday. That puts me at about .5 for the last few weeks. At least the rain keeps falling at the right time to soak in overnight so things are growing well but the ground is hardpan and dusty. Maybe the wetness coming up replenishes the soil moisture somewhat.

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Noon Round up;

clouds clearing out the last hour, but probably did their dirty work with preventing records highs.

ACY: 89
EWR: 88
TEB: 88
BLM: 88
LGA: 87
New Bnswk: 87
NYC: 86
TTN: 86
PHL: 86
JFK: 83
ISP: 83

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