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George BM

May Discobs 2019

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Maybe we get feedback moving forward , note the warmth over the SW Atlantic and already the SSTs are above normal in the Western Atlantic.  

 

 

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Fog/stratus line has retreated south over the last few hours. Was clearing out in greenbelt when I got to work around 8 and went right back into the soup.

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Good call Mount Holly NWS , full sun here now, temps going up rapidly into the 70's.  

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1 hour ago, frd said:

 

Good call Mount Holly NWS , full sun here now, temps going up rapidly into the 70's.  

Pretty big difference between Easton and my house. Was 81 there, 72 here. Just like Wed. Sunny here- a little more hazy- but quite a bit cooler.

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Pretty big difference between Easton and my house. Was 81 there, 72 here. Just like Wed. Sunny here- a little more hazy- but quite a bit cooler.

It has been an incredible spring from the parade of LPs to the tight temperature gradients and thick fog banks. Incredible stuff.

I never liked spring but I am quickly becoming a fan. It's about to dethrone our winters for me.

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...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of
  Columbia, Virginia, and West Virginia, including the following
  areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and
  Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles,
  Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest
  Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast
  Harford, and Southern Baltimore. The District of Columbia. In
  Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Clarke, Culpeper,
  Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Greene, Madison,
  Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Rappahannock, Rockingham,
  Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Stafford, Warren, and Western
  Loudoun. In West Virginia, Eastern Pendleton, Hardy,
  Jefferson, and Western Pendleton.

* From this evening through Sunday morning

* Widespread showers will develop this evening along with possible
  thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall is expected. Average
  rainfall amounts will be between 1 and 3 inches with locally
  higher amounts around 4 inches possible.

* Heavy rainfall in short periods of time may cause creeks and
  streams to rapidly rise out of their banks along with the
  potential for flash flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

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Where was this in Jan and Feb. 

Of  course the weeklies showed this outcome, over and over, but it never came. A host of mets echoed the thoughts of the long range models as well. 

For example, you can not say it was the Nino now because the Nino is not any stronger. 

The SSTs Se of Aussie look the same as they were in the winter. 

QBO the  same.

SOI is not really crazy negative nor is the 90 day that incredible. 

Maybe we have coupling, I simply don't know. 

Judah Cohen @judah47
FollowFollow @judah47
More
7:08 AM - 3 May 2019
 

I know this is geeky but I am fascinated by the strong stratosphere-troposphere coupling in May with quick & strong descent of polar cap heights & how it is much more "textbook" than the event this past January, where the signal became hung up at the tropopause. Plenty to learn!

 

 

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And the damn warm front is still south of me. Sick of this fog, this weather belongs in new england not down here

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Some sun has broken out here in the last half hour. Temp up to 70.

here as well. the humidity the last week has been an omen of things to come  

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this type of weather is king.  fairly nice during the day...fun stuff by late afternoon/evening.  not too hot, but warm enough for shorts/tshirt.  don't get me wrong, i love the seasons and snowstorms, but i gotta put this type of stuff at #1.

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

this type of weather is king.  fairly nice during the day...fun stuff by late afternoon/evening.  not too hot, but warm enough for shorts/tshirt.  don't get me wrong, i love the seasons and snowstorms, but i gotta put this type of stuff at #1.

 

I agree. 

The heat can stay away until July or never. Currently hazy here, dew at 63 , temp at 73, hardly a breeze at all. 

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Longggg range Hrrr not fooling around ...gets  the 2nd wave tomorrow down to 998 mb near Salisbury/ OC . 12z Euro and Ukmet  also increased strength to 1001 -1002 ish . 

 

 hrrr_mslp_uv850_neus_27.png

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1057 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia...
  West central Prince William County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Manassas in northern Virginia...

* Until 200 AM EDT.

* At 1057 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated showers thunderstorms
  producing heavy rain across the warned area. Rainfall amounts
  around 1 to 2 inches have occurred already and additional rainfall
  amounts around 1 to 2 inches are expected within the next hour.
  Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Linton Hall, Bull Run, Manassas, Sudley, Manassas Park,
  Gainesville, Nokesville and Greenwich.

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Well, we got crushed here on the south side of Fairfax, and more coming. The storm revealed a broken gutter pouring water right next to my sill... night before I leave for two weeks.

I'd guess 2+ inches

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In contrast, at 5 am DCA measured 0.75 incles.

The  Four Mile Run precipitation gauge indicated about 0.95 inches.

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

So where's all the rain so far??

Woke up wondering the same thing.  This smells like a bust.

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