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The Little Storm That Could - March 3/4

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm definitely in support of this dual banded structure we're seeing right now.

The western band is pretty well aligned with 700 mb f-gen at the moment.

7fnt_zpszh6tnolt.gif

The NAM isn't too far off that representation.

NAMNE_700_fronto_003_zpsupm0yqiy.png

 

The actual radar echoes are NW of that f-gen, so if you continue that trend into the NAM forecast for 09z SE NH and coastal western ME will do just fine.

This is good news - morning Jebwalk thru the Old Port

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CODNEXLAB-2km-NY-rad-ani24-201903040340-

Watch the echoes down over NJ. See the speed and direction they are taking (right at the heart of SNE). 

700 mb front is probably not moving much, but 850 will tick NW some as the low approaches. But that precip over NJ will be slamming into a wall. That's the 40-50kt flags Will was pointing out yesterday. 

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Just beautiful. 

 
Mesoscale Discussion 157
< Previous MD
MD 157 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0157
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0944 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2019

   Areas affected...Northern New Jersey northeastward into southern
   Massachusetts

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 040344Z - 040745Z

   SUMMARY...Light to moderate snow from northern New Jersey
   northeastward up the Atlantic coast will increase to heavy snow
   within the next few hours. Snowfall rates may exceed 2 inches per
   hour in the heaviest snow bands.

   DISCUSSION...Composite reflectivity shows increasingly heavy
   precipitation lifting north across New Jersey at 03Z as
   low-to-mid-level frontogenesis strengthens north of a surface low
   currently located near the southeast Virginia coast. As these
   heavier precipitation rates lift into the cold air, snowfall rates
   are expected to increase. At the peak, snowfall rates may exceed 2
   inches per hour in a corridor from near New York City to Providence,
   Rhode Island where slantwise instability will likely enhance
   localized banding.

   The latest high resolution guidance suggests warm air aloft will
   remain mostly offshore, but an eventual transition to freezing rain
   or rain is possible in eastern Long Island and far southeast
   Massachusetts.

   ..Bentley.. 03/04/2019

 

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Box 10pm AFD:

Presently, H9-7 frontogenesis / deformation coincident with high
radar returns over the Delmarva Peninsula into NJ while H7-6
frontogenesis was contributing to a SW-NE snow band over PA into
Upstate NY. These two element coinciding and colliding over S
New England as we move towards the morning hours beneath broader
diffluence aloft with the right rear quadrant of an H3 jet streak
aloft, concern of higher QPF values and snowfall amounts subsequent.
There are low probabilities within the HREF of +12" amounts over
E MA, while forecast model omega values within the dendritic growth
zone are notably stronger into the early morning hours on Monday,
values upwards of 30 microbars per second as low-level convergent
forcing is squeezed by upstream forcing yielded by mid-level
impulse energy sweeping through the base of the tropospheric
polar vortex, i.e., an arctic front.

But, as alluded to by the prior forecaster, there are some snow-
fall losses ongoing as 2m temperatures continue to cool with snow
onset, the column continues to moisten, dry air becomes less of a
concern ... altogether, initial issues with snowfall accumulation.

Opted to blend the latest high-res forecast with the prior. This
pushes a bigger area of 8 to 10 inches with localized heavier
amounts that could push slightly above 10 inches.
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Hadn't noted this before, mentioned on Box AFD... assisting lift is SNE being in RRQ of an H3 jet streak:

H3_jet_streak.jpg.3562911a13c5d16ce1bb7e1bf55398fb.jpg

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Just took the dog out.  32.8,  and little over an inch so far.  Some of the heaviest (weight, not rate) snow I've see.  The trees and bushes are drooping so much with only an inch.  Can't imagine that we won't see widespread power outages around here once the heavy stuff starts.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Hadn't noted this before, mentioned on Box AFD... assisting lift is SNE being in RRQ of an H3 jet streak:

Right entrance is a direct circulation (i.e. warm air rising on the Equatorward side, cold air sinking on the polar side), so think WAA thump style. 

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5 minutes ago, NorthShoreBomb said:

wow.. oh how I've missed this!!! it's been a long, uneventful winter.... but tonight we weenie! 32F, ~1 inch down so far

Screen Shot 2019-03-03 at 11.11.09 PM.png

You got the right brew for the job too.

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Moderate to heavy now.  .5" of the wettest snow that exists. 

Luckily there is not much wind with this. Someone will get inches of this paste and limbs will snap anyway, though.

I'm glad I'm going to bed soon. Id prefer to remember things like this.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Hadn't noted this before, mentioned on Box AFD... assisting lift is SNE being in RRQ of an H3 jet streak:

 

Great source for upper level divergence to assist with the lifting. Another good source is the left exit region of jet streak, but that's not relevant to this event.

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