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2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

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4 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Radar looks amazing for DC for next couple hours. We'll get to 5-6 inches if we stay snow through 3pm

I don’t see any model that keeps us snow past 1pm but it would be cool if it happened.

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

I don’t see any model that keeps us snow past 1pm but it would be cool if it happened.

Look at the radar, not the model for the next hour. Models had snow pushing more north but there seems to be a cutoff at northern DC. You never know where the bands will end up setting up. 

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

Look at the radar, not the model for the next hour. Models had snow pushing more north but there seems to be a cutoff at northern DC. You never know where the bands will end up setting up. 

Not saying it can’t happen, just that most models seem to show the warm push making it past here by then. 

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28 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I’ll go with a B- or a B after today. 

Yeah the expectations were high and that might distort my thinking but in all fairness this has been a pretty solid winter for DC so far. A MECS, a SECS/mixfest today, the mid-November teaser, the all-day light event a while back, a few other shoestrings. Reached single digits on at least one night. I must not have been paying much attention to the ice last (?) week since it wasn't much here, but that seems to have been a pretty big deal to the north and west in terms of tree damage. So a little bit of everything, except an out-of-season severe event. (I'm thinking Feb 25 from a couple of years ago.) 

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2 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Yeah the expectations were high and that might distort my thinking but in all fairness this has been a pretty solid winter for DC so far. A MECS, a SECS/mixfest today, the mid-November teaser, the all-day light event a while back, a few other shoestrings. Reached single digits on at least one night. I must not have been paying much attention to the ice last (?) week since it wasn't much here, but that seems to have been a pretty big deal to the north and west in terms of tree damage. So a little bit of everything, except an out-of-season severe event. (I'm thinking Feb 25 from a couple of years ago.) 

If we can score one more event I’ll be thinking B+ or A-.

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9 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I actually think lack of precip here and not temperatures will be what keeps totals lower. Looks to shut off out to the west long before temps are an issue.

Guidance generally all had less precip for eastern areas during the cold part of the event. Another reason I was not at all enthused about this. And ofc the model snowfall maps were completely awful.

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7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Is that right?

Whomever made the forecasts at LWX looks to be spot on, though many of the experts here said the forecast was too bullish. They've been very good all winter IMBY. I don't know if you work there or what (I'm not into the whole forum clique that knows everyone in-person) so maybe your response was some kind of inside joke?

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