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stormtracker

February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They may have been weighing the gfs/fv3 Heavily.   Rgem and icon were south too. They don’t make those maps just off the NAM and euro. 

Latest Rgem actually is in the south camp of snow thump...really gets DC on sw and still snowing DC on north at 48 or 18z

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I have to think that the precipitation will be a little more smoothed out though. Odd that the heavy precipitation can’t make it a little more N.E. of DC...I doubt DC gets nearly 3-4 more inches of snow than BWI

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Just now, snjókoma said:

No scale but the pretty purples and pinks = 6"+

Screen Shot 2019-02-18 at 4.58.53 PM.png

RIC looks to be mostly sleet, again. Hoping they catch the CAD and temps will be lower.

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1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I have to think that the precipitation will be a little more smoothed out though. Odd that the heavy precipitation can’t make it a little more N.E. of DC...I doubt DC gets nearly 3-4 more inches of snow than BWI

Could. Happened in the January storm. It's unusual but not unheard of.

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I think we will see a compromise between the Euro and gfs. 

Euro is the fastest at flipping over. Slow that down by a few hours and you would have more of the 3- 6 / 4 -8 " totals across the corridor

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5 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

No scale but the pretty purples and pinks = 6"+

Screen Shot 2019-02-18 at 4.58.53 PM.png

I’ve been hugging the GFS for a few days now. Hasn’t really moved, puts MBY in a great spot. All of DC, nova, and eastern half of md cash in.

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Just now, Deer Whisperer said:

I’ve been hugging the GFS for a few days now. Hasn’t really moved, puts MBY in a great spot. All of DC, nova, and eastern half of md cash in.

It looks acceptable for a warning level event. The squeeze play between the cold dry air and solid moisture plume has to collide somewhere.  In this run it’s DC west and SW.  enjoy it for now.  Too much of one or the other..and you get the FV3.  Or the Euro.  My money is on MD being the jackpot but we get an acceptable outcome. 

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18 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I’m telling you this is unfolding. Significant storm and evolving. 

I have to agree.  This is a dynamic weather event that is about to unfold.  The final solution could be much more interesting than we see on the models right now.  Definitely fun to track that’s for sure.

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

I have to agree.  This is a dynamic weather event that is about to unfold.  The final solution could be much more interesting than we see on the models right now.  Definitely fun to track that’s for sure.

That FV3 snow map doesn’t concern me for PWC. I don’t think the snowmaps mean much other than entertainment. There is snow to the right nod left of us.  Now if there was 0 in all directions but north well I would be concerned. 

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1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

 

snod.us_ma.png

I don't trust that depth map. It looks way too high and too smoothed out. Kuchera ratios are probably the most reliable choice.

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Just now, Fozz said:

I don't trust that depth map. It looks way too high and too smoothed out. Kuchera ratios are probably the most reliable choice.

I don't either... now that i look at it.  I kind of posted it knee-jerk replying to BTRWx, but it is a little insane.  If you go back to 54h, it actually shows over a foot on the ground in DC.

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Just now, BristowWx said:

That FV3 snow map doesn’t concern me for PWC. I don’t think the snowmaps mean much other than entertainment. There is snow to the right nod left of us.  Now if there was 0 in all directions but north well I would be concerned. 

Completely agree, depends on where bands set up. 

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18z icon shifted the heaviest axis of snow just north of dc into MD with the thump.  Such a nowcast event where that will set up Wednesday morning.  

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

18z icon shifted the heaviest axis of snow just north of dc into MD with the thump.  Such a nowcast event where that will set up Wednesday morning.  

Right.  I don’t think models can predict exactly where those bands will be 48 hours out.  

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Just now, jaydreb said:

Right.  I don’t think models can predict exactly where those bands will be 48 hours out.  

My thoughts are it will come in like a wall for everyone.  It will enhance in the normal zones from Winchester/Leesburg/moco.  After that, us closer to dc, will flip probably an hour or two earlier than progged on any model.  Living here as long as I have it’s always the case.  I think 2-4 is good for us but someone could see 8” in that enhanced area I mentioned and up into northern md where they will hold snow longer.  My .02.

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I will take my 18 inches and like it! In all seriousness. This is a 6-8 storm max for our area. We will all flip at some point. I am really concerned about the sleet that is showing on the models for my area. .5 or .6 of sleet on top of 5 inches of snow is no joke. Major sleet bomb.

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