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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS blows down my way.  Primarily a N and W thing.  The slower onset is killing us.

It’s got no precip up here where the temps hold longer though.  Maybe 1”.  It’s pretty much a non event.  It’s what I kind of feared in this setup. The stj wave splits from the main trough and gets sheared out south. The main energy goes northwest. We end up stuck in between. The reason that’s a risk is the awful se ridge. Really hard to get a wave to amplify east under that. The path of least resistance is way to our west. So if the cold high is there instead of amplifying into it the energy just splits and shears out under us. 

There is time to reverse this. If the energy ejects more consolidated into the TN valley it could trend back to a thump.  The difference between this and that Euro run with 6-12” isn’t that great. We don’t need an amped up wave. Just enough to direct that healthy stj up and into the cold high instead of shearing east under us.  It’s far enough out that could still happen. If this was 48 hours away and this trend was happening I’d be sticking a fork in our chances of significant snow.  

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6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Ugh killing another threat with a storm thread way too early. 

Yep...everyone is too premature w things around here.

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3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

100% agreement there. That's why this morning I was kind of wary where this was going. A quicker flip in the mids with still a cold surface press could make for a nasty 24 hours your way and the rest of the typical areas that are prone to holding CAD. And I agree on the ice lol. I do appreciate a good ice storm though, but it's ugly when it starts taking down trees on property. Hopefully it trends more consolidated. Certainly has time for that. Got a feeling the cold is a lock at the surface. When GFS is holding 32-33 at this lead with the warmer air overhead, doesn't make you feel comfortable knowing it's probably a few degrees too warm like always. 

The Cmc and Euro ops at these long leads  seem to always show Cad influence better then the Gfs from what I've seen and as we get inside 48 the mesos add big weight of course. I think its ominous that guidance as a whole has been showing this wedge potential so far out in time as you were alluding to...and we're still 90 to 100 hours out .

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Ugh killing another threat with a storm thread way too early. 

Stop it. It’s 4 days away...it’s not long range anymore and it was sucking up all the discussion in the LONG RANGE thread. It made no sense to keep it there just because some people hold this stupid superstition. Threads don’t kill snow our climo does!

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GFS blows down my way.  Primarily a N and W thing.  The slower onset is killing us.
We can never get any trend we need no matter what we need..its unreal actually
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Stop it. It’s 4 days away...it’s not long range anymore and it was sucking up all the discussion in the LONG RANGE thread. It made no sense to keep it there just because some people hold this stupid superstition. Threads don’t kill snow our climo does!
Lol....its not the se ridge that's killing our storm...its the radio show

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GFS blows down my way.  Primarily a N and W thing.  The slower onset is killing us.
We just need the euro to be right. Which it never is when we need it to be
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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Stop it. It’s 4 days away...it’s not long range anymore and it was sucking up all the discussion in the LONG RANGE thread. It made no sense to keep it there just because some people hold this stupid superstition. Threads don’t kill snow our climo does!

The long range thread has been a joke this year. Sorry, but it’s true. Very little predictive skill this year. 

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:
21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
GFS blows down my way.  Primarily a N and W thing.  The slower onset is killing us.

We can never get any trend we need no matter what we need..its unreal actually

We can when the pattern is favorable. This is the antithesis of favorable. As you might say- its a DISASTER.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
GFS blows down my way.  Primarily a N and W thing.  The slower onset is killing us.

We can never get any trend we need no matter what we need..its unreal actually

Lol what about the January storm??? But I’m general your right.  But that’s a sign the pattern just isn’t right for a big snow. When it is we get the opposite. How many mediocre looks turned unto snow in 2014 and 2015!  

A while ago I said without blocking this isn’t going to work. The pacific pattern has shown itself. The Aleutian trough epo ridge we expected had turned into a North Pacific ridge that was locked in. That typically doesn’t change when a feature like that locks in like it had. With that blocking ridge location the trough axis over the conus would be predominantly west of us and without blocking storms would cut. A month later that’s exactly what’s been happening. The blocking has repeatedly failed and so that pattern has stuck. 

Last week some blocking and a transient 50/59 got us close. In this case a perfectly timed anomalous 50/50 is the only reason we even have any chance.  But even with that it’s gonna be a fight to overcome that north pac issue without a legit NAO block. 

I guess glass half full says at least we have a chance despite a god awful longwave pattern.  We can still turn this around if we can get a healthy wave to eject into the TN valley and not split around the high and wash out into the ridge but the fail option is there despite the perfect 50/50 because everything else is wrong.

 

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The long range thread has been a joke this year. Sorry, but it’s true. Very little predictive skill this year. 

You think I don’t see the same guidance fails you do?  But it’s still a thread devoted to that discussion.  Leaving a medium range specific storm threat discussion in there just to appease an irrational superstition is stupid. 

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10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The long range thread has been a joke this year. Sorry, but it’s true. Very little predictive skill this year. 

It's not the thread...it's the pattern this year. If ya look around at even some of the best met minds out there...very few have had a good since things have been so jacked up and unexpected, lol

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16 minutes ago, Ji said:
35 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
GFS blows down my way.  Primarily a N and W thing.  The slower onset is killing us.

We just need the euro to be right. Which it never is when we need it to be

Yeah. I was very disappointed with the Euro's performance with todays event. It has us getting buried 3 days ago. 

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26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Stop it. It’s 4 days away...it’s not long range anymore and it was sucking up all the discussion in the LONG RANGE thread. It made no sense to keep it there just because some people hold this stupid superstition. Threads don’t kill snow our climo does!

I lol at this dumb superstition but don't even bother trying to counter anymore.  People are gonna believe dumb things anyway.  I know some are joking, but yeah....the SE ridge was waiting to see if somebody would make a thread too early.

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. I was very disappointed with the Euro's performance with todays event. It has us getting buried 3 days ago. 

The 'once threat' for today was the perfect way to score a decent snow event in this pattern, but it didn't happen. I never had much hope for this coming week. Could still work out for some, esp those who like ice, but not really feeling it after last night's runs and what I have seen today so far.

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21 minutes ago, Ji said:
40 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
GFS blows down my way.  Primarily a N and W thing.  The slower onset is killing us.

We just need the euro to be right. Which it never is when we need it to be

Yeah, it'll likely cave.  But if it holds, that'll boost morale I guess.   It's 4 days out, so I hope no one is jumping.

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27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The 'once threat' for today was the perfect way to score a decent snow event in this pattern, but it didn't happen. I never had much hope for this coming week. Could still work out for some, esp those who like ice, but not really feeling it after last night's runs and what I have seen today so far.

This week would have had a better chance had the storm bombed this weekend and dumped a true cold airmass south into the east.  That look 5+ days ago had real potential with wiggle room and multiple ways to score. Once that failed and the boundary wasn’t going to be that far south of this the potential took a significant hit imo. 

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32 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Ukie anyone?

Even slower with precip. Hardly anything around at 12z Wednesday. I can’t see temp maps or snow maps so not 100% sure but it does not look good when you compare to 00z. 

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7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I skipped the GFS for Costco. $400 later. Anyway, what’s the Ukie got?

Costco....The ultimate love/hate relationship! Cannot walk out of that place without your pockets a couple of hundred bucks lighter. 

UK looks decent for a NW of the cities hit I think. Colder aloft than the GFS.  Edit. NVM. I was looking at the 0Z run.

 

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Ukmet takes the initial waa surge west of us. It doesn’t get heavy precip into the area until Wednesday evening. It puts down a ton Wednesday night but by then it’s ice or rain. I’m sure those idiot maps that count ice as snow will say we get 20”. 

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z GEFS still looks good for our Wednesday storm. Most of the ensemble members give most of CTP a few inches of snow by Thursday am.

 

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You might be in the wrong forum?

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50 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. I was very disappointed with the Euro's performance with todays event. It has us getting buried 3 days ago. 

To be fair, I have seen the occasional high cloud.

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2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

If models don't stop trending the opposite direction, then DT is going to be jumping for joy about his winter cancel claim

He already busted. He cancelled winter for the whole east and even said northeast and New England!!!  Some places already had a bad snow and ice storm. And this next week will be snow somewhere, it’s not changing to rain all the way to Canada. 

I took issue with his extreme exaggerations. It might fail for us but he said entire northeast was not getting any winter weather and even said including New England. He goes over the top sometimes when he is upset and then tries to spin his way out of it. He made a ridiculous forecast and now is defending it when only a small bit of the less extreme part verifies.  

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You might be in the wrong forum?

Yes, I forgot that I was lurking here. Then I decided to post about the GEFS for Central PA. I quickly deleted the post here & went to the right forum!

Sorry everyone, great group here!

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You might be in the wrong forum?

That looks like crap compared to 24 hours ago lol. And we are clearly stuck in the middle there. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That looks like crap compared to 24 hours ago lol. And we are clearly stuck in the middle there. 

I want my purples and pinks back lol

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