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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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Just now, Grothar of Herndon said:

When you said sped up was hoping more east. Would be great to get the transfer and coastal. Oh well let see what the rest of the 12z models show.

Yeah should have clarified that precip was a touch quicker.  I think (famous last words) that the high end for us closer to DC is 1–4 then mix then rain.  Haven’t seen a lot a progress in getting the primary to transfer quicker for the high end solutions.

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37 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

NAM looks pretty good. But NAM.  high is moving into position. We should see where it’s going by 0z

We ignored the NAM when it had almost no wave today... lol. 

Here is the rub with the NAM. It often just adds noise (even at short leads) because it’s prone to go off on wild tangents and you never know if it’s picking up on the right idea or not. 

But when it does have the right idea it often does the best job with the details. Seeing CAD. Getting the details of the thermal profile. Meso scale banding. If it has the right general synoptic setup it often has the best depiction of details. So there are times it scores the coup like Jan 2016 with the heavy snow into NYC or picking up on the waa thump in November this year or seeing the weird inverted trough aided ccb with the January storm. Problem is you can’t tell when it’s scoring the coup or just standing on some soap box spewing crazy talk.  

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think the ICON is a terrible model, but verbatim, it's a thump to ice NW of the fall line. DC on south is a cold rain after a quick mix transition. Surface never goes above freezing for quite a few. Thank god it's the ICON though. 

Not a big fan of the ICON for here this run. Not ICONIC.

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think the ICON is a terrible model, but verbatim, it's a thump to ice NW of the fall line. DC on south is a cold rain after a quick mix transition. Surface never goes above freezing for quite a few. Thank god it's the ICON though. 

I think it does ok with track and placement but it’s surface temps usually run cold.  I think the reason it gets so much run is that it comes out during dead times before the big guns. :lol:

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Not a big fan of the ICON for here this run. Not ICONIC.

This just isn't your winter man. Need a strong CAD signal and quicker WAA regime for a thump. Still possible. Living on that side of the bay is tough in these setups. Transitions can come in fast and furious with any marine influence. Hopefully the ICON doesn't lead the pack into something.  

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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think the ICON is a terrible model, but verbatim, it's a thump to ice NW of the fall line. DC on south is a cold rain after a quick mix transition. Surface never goes above freezing for quite a few. Thank god it's the ICON though. 

Icon isn’t that good but it did do ok with the temps last week. Kinda laughed when it kept me at freezing the while storm. Well I never got above 32 and several downed trees later I have to admit it got that right. 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

I think it does ok with track and placement but it’s surface temps usually run cold.  I think the reason it gets so much run is that it comes out during dead times before the big guns. :lol:

It can run cold, but with the high positioning and strength this run, it has merit. For me, it's all about the evolving synoptic setup right now, and monitoring the CAD sig closer into game time when the mesos will have a better handle. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Icon isn’t that good but it did do ok with the temps last week. Kinda laughed when it kept me at freezing the while storm. Well I never got above 32 and several downed trees later I have to admit it got that right. 

Yeah. Kind of a hint from my last post I just made. All about the setup. Get a strong high and the colder surface has some merit. A lot of moving pieces with this one to score big. Kind of like every event this winter. Been a p.i.t.a to keep up with. Don't envy the forecasters at Sterling this winter. Had their hands full.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We ignored the NAM when it had almost no wave today... lol. 

Here is the rub with the NAM. It often just adds noise (even at short leads) because it’s prone to go off on wild tangents and you never know if it’s picking up on the right idea or not. 

But when it does have the right idea it often does the best job with the details. Seeing CAD. Getting the details of the thermal profile. Meso scale banding. If it has the right general synoptic setup it often has the best depiction of details. So there are times it scores the coup like Jan 2016 with the heavy snow into NYC or picking up on the waa thump in November this year or seeing the weird inverted trough aided ccb with the January storm. Problem is you can’t tell when it’s scoring the coup or just standing on some soap box spewing crazy talk.  

Generally if the NAM has 3-4 straight runs  as it comes into range inside 84 with little change you can really be confident it has a good idea.  If it’s shifting notably from run to run it’s usually a toss til it gets inside 48.  It has to be consistent beyond 48-54 to be confident it’s got the right idea  

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

This just isn't your winter man. Need a strong CAD signal and quicker WAA regime for a thump. Still possible. Living on that side of the bay is tough in these setups. Transitions can come in fast and furious with any marine influence. Hopefully the ICON doesn't lead the pack into something.  

Lol you ain't kidding. And I know this is a fail scenario for here 9 times out of 10, other than a quick inch of slop to rain. Not a single thing weather wise to track right now other than this crap though, and who knows, it could end up the 10% where a legit thump happens before the flip.

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30 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

Yes, this one is different. There is going to be rain next week after this storm so no need to Deb especially in this thread. What we need is for a massive thump to enjoy.

I just don't think there will be a massive thump with that track and no big cold. Like I said, I'm hoping you guys are seeing something I'm not. I won't say anything else perceived as negativity. Just wanted to express my thoughts. 

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Icon is at best 3 to 6 hours of snow prior to  freezing rain/ rain/dry slot. Need it to come in hot n heavy if that's the small window we have for snow. Atleast it's showing a dry slot and not a deluge after the changeover.

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Icon isn’t that good but it did do ok with the temps last week. Kinda laughed when it kept me at freezing the while storm. Well I never got above 32 and several downed trees later I have to admit it got that right. 

And that was with a fairly strong primary that went through Detroit . If I had a  dime for every time guidance under did Cad  over the years  I'd be dining at Red Lobster and probably for  a week straight .

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GFS looks a touch colder in the mids but just doesn’t throw a ton of precip into the cold sector before we lose them. 

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GFS synoptic evolution screams ice storm on this run. Very potent jet cutting over the top with right entrance region placed over the Mid Atlantic. Hold sig looks good at the surface, but southerly 850 winds send the mid level warm air northward. Another NW of 95 high impact zone. 

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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We ignored the NAM when it had almost no wave today... lol. 

Here is the rub with the NAM. It often just adds noise (even at short leads) because it’s prone to go off on wild tangents and you never know if it’s picking up on the right idea or not. 

But when it does have the right idea it often does the best job with the details. Seeing CAD. Getting the details of the thermal profile. Meso scale banding. If it has the right general synoptic setup it often has the best depiction of details. So there are times it scores the coup like Jan 2016 with the heavy snow into NYC or picking up on the waa thump in November this year or seeing the weird inverted trough aided ccb with the January storm. Problem is you can’t tell when it’s scoring the coup or just standing on some soap box spewing crazy talk.  

When it's consistent with other models I don't mind looking at it

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The temp profile was good leading in. I like that part. But the Gfs is a weak strung out pos wave. Imo temps would be fine if it brought the precip in. The runs that had a good result were crushing us with .5-1” qpf during the morning into afternoon Wednesday.  Big difference between that and some piddling .25 qpf crap. Of course it’s warmer. Less dynamic cooling and mixing of the column to overcome warm layers and hold off waa. We need a healthy wave for this to work. Gfs is trending towards a split of energy with one weak wave cutting way up to the lakes and the other shearing out under us. That’s not the progression we want. 

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Trend so far at 12z has been a slightly more robust SE ridge. Further west track of the primary and slower onset of precip. The further west it tracks the more likely we don’t get the waa thump before we lose the mids.

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The cold is hanging on basically the same as it has been. The problem is the good moisture is being pushed  to our south and east. Look at the difference in qpf. Into the area between the good thump it was showing yesterday and the meh it's showing now. Only gets like .10 qpf to the m/d line. Not much of a thump.

Ninjed.. By @psuhoffman

gfs_apcpn24_neus_14.png

gfs_apcpn24_neus_17-1.png

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS synoptic evolution screams ice storm on this run. Very potent jet cutting over the top with right entrance region placed over the Mid Atlantic. Hold sig looks good at the surface, but southerly 850 winds send the mid level warm air northward. Another NW of 95 high impact zone. 

Yay I can lose more trees. Lol

yea the gfs evolution is great for Ice I was talking about snow.  We need a more consolidated amped wave to get heavy precip in early to get a thump. The weaker split wave idea is better for an ice event. 

Ice is just frozen rain to me. Only time it’s any good is if it’s on top of a lot of snow and that’s only because it preserves my snow lol. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yay I can lose more trees. Lol

yea the gfs evolution is great for Ice I was talking about snow.  We need a more consolidated amped wave to get heavy precip in early to get a thump. The weaker split wave idea is better for an ice event. 

Ice is just frozen rain to me. Only time it’s any good is if it’s on top of a lot of snow and that’s only because it preserves my snow lol. 

100% agreement there. That's why this morning I was kind of wary where this was going. A quicker flip in the mids with still a cold surface press could make for a nasty 24 hours your way and the rest of the typical areas that are prone to holding CAD. And I agree on the ice lol. I do appreciate a good ice storm though, but it's ugly when it starts taking down trees on property. Hopefully it trends more consolidated. Certainly has time for that. Got a feeling the cold is a lock at the surface. When GFS is holding 32-33 at this lead with the warmer air overhead, doesn't make you feel comfortable knowing it's probably a few degrees too warm like always. 

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5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The cold is hanging on basically the same as it has been. The problem is the good moisture is being pushed  to our south and east. Look at the difference in qpf. Into the area between the good thump it was showing yesterday and the meh it's showing now. Only gets like .10 qpf to the m/d line. Not much of a thump.

Ninjed.. By @psuhoffman

gfs_apcpn24_neus_14.png

gfs_apcpn24_neus_17-1.png

Remember a few days ago when I teased maestro that the way this fails is it splits and one wave shears out south and the other cuts nw?  

Its happening !!!!!!!!! Lol

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The temp profile was good leading in. I like that part. But the Gfs is a weak strung out pos wave. Imo temps would be fine if it brought the precip in. The runs that had a good result were crushing us with .5-1” qpf during the morning into afternoon Wednesday.  Big difference between that and some piddling .25 qpf crap. Of course it’s warmer. Less dynamic cooling and mixing of the column to overcome warm layers and hold off waa. We need a healthy wave for this to work. Gfs is trending towards a split of energy with one weak wave cutting way up to the lakes and the other shearing out under us. That’s not the progression we want. 

Agreed. We need it amped up for the dynamics to help us. As a side note the lighter precip would most likely lead to more ice at the surface. 

Edit:Ninja'd

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