• Member Statistics

    15,844
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NEILwxbo
    Newest Member
    NEILwxbo
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

Recommended Posts

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah that would work.

Looks like 2-4 then a little ice and dry slot.  At least it didn’t go the other way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From Mount Holly AFD-

The position the aforementioned high takes will have an impact on the ptype Wednesday, but it is interesting to note that the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all have this high moving out to sea rather quickly with approach and passage of next storm system. The high seems to be a bit too far south for a classic cold air damming situation, and winds shift to more of an easterly flow during the day Wednesday, as opposed to a north-northeast flow that is needed to support continuous widespread snow. Regardless, there will be enough cold air for precip to start out as snow throughout the whole forecast area. As the high moves offshore, winds shift to more of a south-southeast flow, and midlevel warm air will lift to the north as well. By Wednesday afternoon, precip will change to rain in Delmarva, and snow becomes a wintry mix for the rest of southeast PA and NJ. Could have a more prolonged period of freezing rain and sleet north and west of Philly, while a rain/sleet mix Wednesday afternoon for southern NJ, extreme southeast PA, and northern portions of Delmarva becomes plain rain by Wednesday evening. Rain/snow line then continues to lift north Wedensday night. Frontal boundary then becomes hung up south of Delmarva going into the end of the week, and several more waves of low pressure will develop on this boundary as high pressure builds in from the north and west. Remains to be seen what wins out for the late week period.

 

That last part..hmm

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM and Icon are tapping the gulf early in their runs. This has the potential to juice up quite a bit IMO.

Firehose of  moisture was definitely directed further east this run in both models. Eps had a noticeable uptick in Qpf at 12z as well . 

Look at the Nams high placement at 84 right before precip gets here . ..its great.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS a bit better.  Colder at 96 vs 102 at 12z

 

EDIT:  Actually, looks even slower onset than 12z...so maybe it's a wash

It was a stronger high but slower again so it's not as thumpy a thump as it could've been. Plusses and minuses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS a bit better.  Colder at 96 vs 102 at 12z

 

EDIT:  Actually, looks even slower onset than 12z...so maybe it's a wash

It's slightly slower but heavier when it gets to us compared to 12z. Better dynamic cooling etc. HPC is also slightly stronger. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From Mount Holly AFD-
The position the aforementioned high takes will have an impact on the ptype Wednesday, but it is interesting to note that the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all have this high moving out to sea rather quickly with approach and passage of next storm system. The high seems to be a bit too far south for a classic cold air damming situation, and winds shift to more of an easterly flow during the day Wednesday, as opposed to a north-northeast flow that is needed to support continuous widespread snow. Regardless, there will be enough cold air for precip to start out as snow throughout the whole forecast area. As the high moves offshore, winds shift to more of a south-southeast flow, and midlevel warm air will lift to the north as well. By Wednesday afternoon, precip will change to rain in Delmarva, and snow becomes a wintry mix for the rest of southeast PA and NJ. Could have a more prolonged period of freezing rain and sleet north and west of Philly, while a rain/sleet mix Wednesday afternoon for southern NJ, extreme southeast PA, and northern portions of Delmarva becomes plain rain by Wednesday evening. Rain/snow line then continues to lift north Wedensday night. Frontal boundary then becomes hung up south of Delmarva going into the end of the week, and several more waves of low pressure will develop on this boundary as high pressure builds in from the north and west. Remains to be seen what wins out for the late week period.
 
That last part..hmm
Lol we cant win. Now our high is too south
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ji said:
49 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
From Mount Holly AFD-
The position the aforementioned high takes will have an impact on the ptype Wednesday, but it is interesting to note that the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all have this high moving out to sea rather quickly with approach and passage of next storm system. The high seems to be a bit too far south for a classic cold air damming situation, and winds shift to more of an easterly flow during the day Wednesday, as opposed to a north-northeast flow that is needed to support continuous widespread snow. Regardless, there will be enough cold air for precip to start out as snow throughout the whole forecast area. As the high moves offshore, winds shift to more of a south-southeast flow, and midlevel warm air will lift to the north as well. By Wednesday afternoon, precip will change to rain in Delmarva, and snow becomes a wintry mix for the rest of southeast PA and NJ. Could have a more prolonged period of freezing rain and sleet north and west of Philly, while a rain/sleet mix Wednesday afternoon for southern NJ, extreme southeast PA, and northern portions of Delmarva becomes plain rain by Wednesday evening. Rain/snow line then continues to lift north Wedensday night. Frontal boundary then becomes hung up south of Delmarva going into the end of the week, and several more waves of low pressure will develop on this boundary as high pressure builds in from the north and west. Remains to be seen what wins out for the late week period.
 
That last part..hmm

Lol we cant win. Now our high is too south

The weather man, out to get ya. :P 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For some reason, getting blank FV3 maps that were posted in here just a little while ago. Not seeing anything! What did the “Funky Virus Cubed” give us!?

 

Eta: Opens eyes

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Where the hell is Robert Tyrone Chill?

where is roger smith with our 8-12 inches?

  • Like 3
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

FV3 has a cold bias, sometimes significantly so, sadly.

i dont think its colder than the other models but it did start the precip like at 1am..and its heavy snow by 12z which is what we need

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Ji said:

where is roger smith with our 8-12 inches?

Even he doesn't believe in this winter anymore. When you've lost him, you've lost everyone.

Is BobChill ok? Actually concerned when he disappears this long with a potential storm coming.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Ji said:

where is roger smith with our 8-12 inches?

He would have to call for 8-12 feet for me to expect a warning event using the typical roger snow to real snow method. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Even he doesn't believe in this winter anymore. When you've lost him, you've lost everyone.

Is BobChill ok? Actually concerned when he disappears this long with a potential storm coming.

He said he is fine just annoyed and done with posting for a while. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Its better than 12Z.  Maybe a tad slower but comes in heavy. 

yeah it has the most accumulating snow since yesterday's 18Z.  Just glad we didnt lose it. Would be fun to get 4 inches in a couple of hours. I like watching heavy snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Ji said:

where is roger smith with our 8-12 inches?

He doesn't come in until the event is locked in and even then not until right before with  200% to 400% of forecasted totals.

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont think its colder than the other models but it did start the precip like at 1am..and its heavy snow by 12z which is what we need

It's documented that it has a cold bias.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.