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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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NAM at range and all the other caveats, but still have to like what it shows. Precip arrives earlier, pre-dawn, and looks like ~4" by early morning Wed. Yeah snow maps suck, I know, but it is all snow through the end of the run at 12z Wed. So if (if... if!) it is correct that's a beat down to that point and would be more coming after. Cold at surface and 850s are as well. 

Whatever it's worth, fun to look at and get NAM'd at least once! 

ETA... Clearly one of the big factors is getting precip in fast, early, and at a good rate. Take advantage of the cold while it's there for as long as it can manage. 

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3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

NAM at range and all the other caveats, but still have to like what it shows. Precip arrives earlier, pre-dawn, and looks like ~4" by early morning Wed. Yeah snow maps suck, I know, but it is all snow through the end of the run at 12z Wed. So if (if... if!) it is correct that's a beat down to that point and would be more coming after. Cold at surface and 850s are as well. 

Whatever it's worth, fun to look at and get NAM'd at least once! 

ETA... Clearly one of the big factors is getting precip in fast, early, and at a good rate. Take advantage of the cold while it's there for as long as it can manage. 

I like where we sit, NEXT MODEL UP

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31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The 700 and 500 vertical velocity maps are sick for NOVA and DC. The best dynamics are right over the DC corridor. Of course it is the NAM at range. But as modeled. We would get pounded with that thump.

Where do we find those maps?  TT?

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Just now, Woodbridge02 said:

The GFS looks worse to me. Already over to ice at 90 compared to heavy snow at 96 at 18z

It went pretty bad later in the frames, precip was dried out as a result of the sheared out wave, SE ridge pumping a bit more later on. Definitely not nam-esque whatsoever. 

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

It went pretty bad later in the frames, precip was dried out as a result of the sheared out wave, SE ridge pumping a bit more later on. Definitely not nam-esque whatsoever. 

GFS seems to be a bit on it's own in terms of the weaker wave solution, doesn't it?

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FV3 starts before 6z and heavy by 12z...very NAM-like. Flips to ZR by 18z though...probably 0.6-0.8 qpf before the flip. This according to pivotal maps.


Woah, how did nobody share that Pivotal has good FV3 maps out quickly? Game changer.

FV3 is very fast. Has snow developing over the area between 72-78hrs. Solid thump to a lot of ZR.

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


High skirts offshore faster. Run with a mixed bag of positives and negatives.

00z CMC looks good, FWIW

 

Cmc is quicker as well

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

So that’s NAM, new GFS, and CMC with quicker solutions.  00z is good overall so far.

Looking at the hourly maps at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html, 0Z CMC starts between 10-11Z whereas the old run started 13-14Z, so yes, a bit quicker. It does seem like the trend is for the ridge to pump more if anything, so getting precip in quicker is the key to accumulations. With the high scooting off to the east, I don't think the low levels will hold on for long in the urban corridor during the day.

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Just now, GEOS5ftw said:

Looking at the hourly maps at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html, 0Z CMC starts between 10-11Z whereas the old run started 13-14Z, so yes, a bit quicker. It does seem like the trend is for the ridge to pump more if anything, so getting precip in quicker is the key to accumulations. With the high scooting off to the east, I don't think the low levels will hold on for long in the urban corridor during the day.

Exactly, I think faster onset will the key for 95 areas to get a few inches of snow.  I tend to think these WAA setups have precip breaking out quicker than modeled so we have that going for us presumably.  My bar is seeing more than 30-60 minutes of frozen which would be more than I got out last week’s storm which turned into mid 30s rain for 99% of it for me.

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Where do we find those maps?  TT?

Pivotal. 

Man. The GFS is a nasty ice storm out this way. But it is dynamic as well. This seems to be getting heavier with each run. Tomorrow's runs should be fun.

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