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PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats


WxUSAF
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GFS definitely trended north for the Saturday event but I have my doubts of me getting all snow.  It looks like the Mason Dixon Line is where it will be snow, a la Monday all over again.  I hope the model eventually shows more cold air farther south because if the 1800 run turns out to be accurate, the best we'll see in my neck of the woods is a sloppy mix with Baltimore and south just getting rain.  Tuesday looks like a warmer run too. 

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1 minute ago, Danajames said:

GFS definitely trended north for the Saturday event but I have my doubts of me getting all snow.  It looks like the Mason Dixon Line is where it will be snow, a la Monday all over again.  I hope the model eventually shows more cold air farther south because if the 1800 run turns out to be accurate, the best we'll see in my neck of the woods is a sloppy mix with Baltimore and south just getting rain.  Tuesday looks like a warmer run too. 

i ignored your account for a reason, opened one message just bc there was nothing else to look at rn... :P

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1 minute ago, Danajames said:

GFS definitely trended north for the Saturday event but I have my doubts of me getting all snow.  It looks like the Mason Dixon Line is where it will be snow, a la Monday all over again.  I hope the model eventually shows more cold air farther south because if the 1800 run turns out to be accurate, the best we'll see in my neck of the woods is a sloppy mix with Baltimore and south just getting rain.  Tuesday looks like a warmer run too. 

Most of us will deal with some rain but I think this will be a different event than Monday.  This a west to east fast moving heavy quick hitter that may take advantage of decent rates.  Will we hit WSW criteria well don’t think so but I think if we can get rates it might surprise especially Between EZF and BWI. Now the fact that Friday will be spring like and Saturday will be marginal won’t give us cold smoke but if you are in for some falling snow that sticks to your grass you might not be disappointed.  We take what we can get, drink a lot, and continue the hunt.  

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Danajames said:

GFS definitely trended north for the Saturday event but I have my doubts of me getting all snow.  It looks like the Mason Dixon Line is where it will be snow, a la Monday all over again.  I hope the model eventually shows more cold air farther south because if the 1800 run turns out to be accurate, the best we'll see in my neck of the woods is a sloppy mix with Baltimore and south just getting rain.  Tuesday looks like a warmer run too. 

Keep us posted 

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2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

only took one time to realize you shouldn't say anything about a run til its finished. learned my lesson lol

It’s ok. You just gotta watch what you say or people get the wrong idea.  People think you condone that stuff. Sammy Davis Jr. is very talented.  Just leave it at that. 

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2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

only took one time to realize you shouldn't say anything about a run til its finished. learned my lesson lol

Don't beat yourself up. There is actually some predictive value to the early frames, but I find it's more useful to avoid the precip panels and start high.  Take a look, for instance, at the steering flow itself, the 250mb pattern. Compare 36 on the NAM and 42 on the 18z GFS. On the NAM you can see there's a piece of energy over Chicago (etc); on the GFS, it's not there. It's always a guessing game, but what that piece of energy ends up doing is forcing the NAM south; without it there, the GFS flow is more flat, allowing the energy in the west to ride straight across country, and further north by the time it reaches the Atlantic.

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Just now, yoda said:

Good hit for EZF and RIC this run

yeah that's nice for central/southern VA. Jackpot runs CHO and due west. Can't discount that. Decisions, decisions...

While I'm here, I'll post the 18z EURO snowmap. Saw the QPF but not sure it did an accurate job of showing what happened. Good swath of solid advisory level snow. Typical north jog and many are happy.

9-km-ECMWF-USA-Surface-3-Hourly-Maryland

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