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PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats


WxUSAF
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2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

only took one time to realize you shouldn't say anything about a run til its finished. learned my lesson lol

It’s ok. You just gotta watch what you say or people get the wrong idea.  People think you condone that stuff. Sammy Davis Jr. is very talented.  Just leave it at that. 

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2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

only took one time to realize you shouldn't say anything about a run til its finished. learned my lesson lol

Don't beat yourself up. There is actually some predictive value to the early frames, but I find it's more useful to avoid the precip panels and start high.  Take a look, for instance, at the steering flow itself, the 250mb pattern. Compare 36 on the NAM and 42 on the 18z GFS. On the NAM you can see there's a piece of energy over Chicago (etc); on the GFS, it's not there. It's always a guessing game, but what that piece of energy ends up doing is forcing the NAM south; without it there, the GFS flow is more flat, allowing the energy in the west to ride straight across country, and further north by the time it reaches the Atlantic.

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Just now, yoda said:

Good hit for EZF and RIC this run

yeah that's nice for central/southern VA. Jackpot runs CHO and due west. Can't discount that. Decisions, decisions...

While I'm here, I'll post the 18z EURO snowmap. Saw the QPF but not sure it did an accurate job of showing what happened. Good swath of solid advisory level snow. Typical north jog and many are happy.

9-km-ECMWF-USA-Surface-3-Hourly-Maryland

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Actually saw an improvement on the Euro suite at 500's for our Sat storm. We are getting better separation with the shortwave and the SW troughing which is allowing better ridging to develop behind the shortwave. This in turn is giving us a stronger shortwave. We are seeing this across the board (Euro op, EPS means, control run). Unfortunately this improvement was offset with a more southern push of the confluence to our north as some NS energy pushes through. So we are seeing our system suppressed farther south and weaker as it has less room to strengthen. Take that extra suppression out and we are probably talking a beefier version of what we saw with the 12Z snow maps.

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25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually saw an improvement on the Euro suite at 500's for our Sat storm. We are getting better separation with the shortwave and the SW troughing which is allowing better ridging to develop behind the shortwave. This in turn is giving us a stronger shortwave. We are seeing this across the board (Euro op, EPS means, control run). Unfortunately this improvement was offset with a more southern push of the confluence to our north as some NS energy pushes through. So we are seeing our system suppressed farther south and weaker as it has less room to strengthen. Take that extra suppression out and we are probably talking a beefier version of what we saw with the 12Z snow maps.

Still time for some minor tweaks. We have the inevitable north shift inside of 24 hours to look forward to. A 1-3" event would work for me.

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Cheers brother.  2019/20 will be better I can feel it!  

Almost has to be. If it wasn't for our over performer, this winter would have been a major disappointment. Still time to score with all the storm chances but that se ridge has been a killer.  Timing something obviously would be key.

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4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Almost has to be. If it wasn't for our over performer, this winter would have been a major disappointment. Still time to score with all the storm chances but that se ridge has been a killer.  Timing something obviously would be key.

Do you know if these models have algorithms that allow for changes to take place on runs routinely based on past performances. Like a relaxation of the se ridge occurs after affecting our area for about a week which then allows the LR to look better than it really is? I know I'm probably not asking this question the correct way.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Still time for some minor tweaks. We have the inevitable north shift inside of 24 hours to look forward to. A 1-3" event would work for me.

Let’s hope this was nothing more than the famous windshield wiper effect. Yesterday north, overnight south, coming back north today. 

 

Eta: by happy hour gfs today, bourbon barrel stouts will be flowing. ;)

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The usual model mayhem...GFS shifted back south overnight.  Outside of extreme southern MD, most of the state is a miss with the Saturday event.  It's unfortunate because the source of cold air aloft will be more prevalent at that time.   Late Sunday's system still looks too warm to me...mix at best if anything does happen.   And unless the colder air can lock in place on Tuesday as the warm front tries to move north, any precipitation with that one will be a mix too.   At least in my neck of the woods.   Overall, not too impressive over the next 5 days.  If any of us in the area can get 1-3" at any given time, it should be considered a win. 

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