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Hoosier

February 2019 Discussion

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Starts cold and then big moderation.  In fact, could be an epic change.  As an example, the 00z GFS has a 75+ degree turnaround in parts of IL from Thursday to Sunday.  

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Will change a lot im sure but the euro sure has an ice storm type look with a strong occluding low to the west and cold high pressure building in from the north in the 7 to 9 day range

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The first half of the month looks to be reasonably active as the trough axis moves a further west after this cold outbreak. Probably a little more potential for a bigger snowstorm than the last few weeks, and a lot more temperature variability too. 

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16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Let me just put this right here...

GFSFLT2_sfc_temp_147.png.8942daf132352a1268c0f2eb0497556c.png

Ugh. Chilly rain (although I'm sure it will actually feel great after the next 48 hours) and probably not quite warm/moist enough in the warm sector for chase-worthy severe.

GFS actually does build some CAPE though so we'll wait and see. In any event, some areas could see thunderstorms less than a week after -50 wind chills. That's nothing short of insane.

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On 1/29/2019 at 9:42 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Let me just put this right here...

GFSFLT2_sfc_temp_147.png.8942daf132352a1268c0f2eb0497556c.png

Some places might have nearly 80 degree swing in the matter of 4-5 days. Insane

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25 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

I doubt that would verify with current glacier pack.  Would be foggy though.  

Was just gonna say, the fog late this week/ early next week is gonna be pretty bad at times. 

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What the actual heck?!

FWA beat their record low today (1/30) by 5°, -13° and may go lower before midnight. Old record -8° 1966. Tomorrow (1/31) should at least tie at -18° (1963).

The predicted high for Monday (2/4)? 56° (and may go higher). 110 year old record 58° (1909)

My sinuses are going to explode.

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LOT has 45 at ORD on Sunday.  With a high of -10 today, that would be a 55 degree swing in high temps in 4 days.  My cursory look at the previous high end arctic outbreaks for Chicago shows that none of them had a 55 degree rebound in high temperatures in just 4 days.  I'm not sure what the biggest change in highs is for a 4 day period as something like a high of 5 followed by a high of 62 could have happened (or vice versa) at some point.  Would take a while to figure out.

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15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

LOT has 45 at ORD on Sunday.  With a high of -10 today, that would be a 55 degree swing in high temps in 4 days.  My cursory look at the previous high end arctic outbreaks for Chicago shows that none of them had a 55 degree rebound in high temperatures in just 4 days.  I'm not sure what the biggest change in highs is for a 4 day period as something like a high of 5 followed by a high of 62 could have happened (or vice versa) at some point.  Would take a while to figure out.

Since 11/1/1958, this is what I see on a four-day swing for ORD:

#1 1/31/1989 (65) - > 2/4/1989 (7) | 58

#2 1/2/2004 (61) - > 1/6/2004 (9) | 52

#3T 2/2/1965 (0) - > 2/6/1965 (49) | 49

#3T 2/3/1996 (-5) - > 2/7/1996 (44) | 49

#3T 12/29/1984 (63) - > 1/2/1985 (14) | 49

 

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13 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

Since 11/1/1958, this is what I see on a four-day swing for ORD:

#1 1/31/1989 (65) - > 2/4/1989 (7) | 58

#2 1/2/2004 (61) - > 1/6/2004 (9) | 52

#3T 2/2/1965 (0) - > 2/6/1965 (49) | 49

#3T 2/3/1996 (-5) - > 2/7/1996 (44) | 49

#3T 12/29/1984 (63) - > 1/2/1985 (14) | 49

 

Nice. Is that from xmacis and if so, how'd you do that?

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12z Euro run would suggest actually a pretty substantial severe threat next Tuesday in IL/vicinity with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints present and very strong shear. That would be an incredible flip from today/tomorrow.

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Just now, andyhb said:

12z Euro run would suggest actually a pretty substantial severe threat next Tuesday in IL/vicinity with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints present and very strong shear. That would be an incredible flip from today/tomorrow.

It’s almost unfathomable at this point 

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5 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

It’s almost unfathomable at this point 

Some of those places would have nearly an 80 degree dewpoint swing in the matter of 6 days, even 60 degree swing in 4 days.

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nice. Is that from xmacis and if so, how'd you do that?

Pulled raw daily data out of MRCC cli-MATE into excel & did quick absolute value calculations on varied time periods - e.g., 2 day, 3 day, 4 day.

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There has been a complete flip in the anomalies on the CFS in recent days.  The more recent look certainly runs a higher risk of some mild ups but it's a wetter pattern.

 summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201902.thumb.gif.b2562bbf80c66c2e8ad4dafe0102b861.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201902.thumb.gif.1f178e4a7708b887195885f8773c9dd4.gif

 

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I do like the CFS trend of putting me right in the transition zone so maybe I can get in on some storm tracks for once. Also would like to have an insane roller coaster where the warmth coming next week doubles and I hit double digit positives and then some huge storm rolls in when the goodness ends. I keep daydreaming about March 2, 2012 for some reason today.

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If we keep getting these huge temp swings mid Feb into March and keep the current storm track pattern the atmosphere is going to snap in this sub at some point.  It just has to (Insert my weenie wish lol).  I'm ready for snow>tornadoes in 72 hours:weenie: 

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Not that I fully believe it, but the ECMWF/GFS/NAM melt just about the entire snowpack around here by Monday evening.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not that I fully believe it, but the ECMWF/GFS/NAM melt just about the entire snowpack around here by Monday evening.

That would be quite amazing.  Had 15" on the ground this morning, and after this clipper we will likely be over 18" of very dense snow pack.  Well, the bottom 60-70% is very dense at least.

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