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Stormlover74

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

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1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

just like spring and summer as I get old and cranky

The weather and the microwave are my new lovers. No matter how much you complain about or to them, they never take notice.

as always ....

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10 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

EPS has the signal for the 11th-12th storm as well.

can you post a graphic for the 11th and 12th ?

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15 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

EPS has the signal for the 11th-12th storm as well.

Nice signal but nothing to get excited about right now

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

12 days away-pure fantasy at this point...

Of course it is but  if the MJO does go into phase 8 which looks like it will, we might see winter coming back after the 1st week of February.

DT and others think that will be the case.

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

I’m thinking we get 21 inches in February. Gfs 18z has a storm around that timeframe nothing crazy but the nor’easter is there

which day is it showing for.

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7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I’m thinking we get 21 inches in February. Gfs 18z has a storm around that timeframe nothing crazy but the nor’easter is there

Can I have some of what you're consuming  ?:beer::pimp::pepsi::drunk::popcorn::icecream:

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18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Weeklies look very nice from mid February through mid March.

Imagine if March ends up being the snowiest month again. lol

Well it wouldn't take much unless 2nd half of Feb delivers.

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35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Can I have some of what you're consuming  ?:beer::pimp::pepsi::drunk::popcorn::icecream:

Might be the excess of street sodium getting into the drinking water. As always.....

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The mixed El Niño and La Niña themes continue this winter. A very La Niña-like -PNA pattern during the first week of February. While the CPC composite is just a snapshot of the first week period, notice how many La Nina’s are in there. Hopefully, the weeklies are correct about improvements in the pattern as the month progresses.

 

10950ED6-BFAC-4553-B793-86A7D47EEBE3.gif.a3aa7ad48d26f63f0891e3c2a7a040a7.gif

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3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I’m thinking we get 21 inches in February. Gfs 18z has a storm around that timeframe nothing crazy but the nor’easter is there

21?... whats stopping us from getting 41.

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3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I’m thinking we get 21 inches in February. Gfs 18z has a storm around that timeframe nothing crazy but the nor’easter is there

Well, there it is: This winter summed up perfectly in one post: A 240hr 18z GFS snowstorm that shows "nothing crazy."

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7 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

12 days away-pure fantasy at this point...

The ever elusive “MJO phase 8” and “Euro weeklies” for the last 2+ months. They’re both like Clark Kent and Superman, one on a model forecast and one in reality, they’re never seen together...

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Looks like the coming warm up with the -PNA in early February is a result of the slower passage of the MJO through phase 6. 

 

4BEE3EDD-077D-4FD2-A233-B99B83769BE4.thumb.png.d8d79cd657f1f1055056ddfe7d854cd5.png

52DEC121-E3E7-4442-9B66-33C39C87BE05.png.532ddd956559f9330b01bc32d0d44095.png

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the coming warm up with the -PNA in early February is a result of the slower passage of the MJO through phase 6. 

 

4BEE3EDD-077D-4FD2-A233-B99B83769BE4.thumb.png.d8d79cd657f1f1055056ddfe7d854cd5.png

52DEC121-E3E7-4442-9B66-33C39C87BE05.png.532ddd956559f9330b01bc32d0d44095.png

The new ensembles are ugly right into mid month

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new ensembles are ugly right into mid month

I think we're done through 2/15 or so, the question will be can the MJO get into 8-1-2 for the 2nd half of the month...

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new ensembles are ugly right into mid month

We will need to see the MJO forcing west of the Date Line fade out a bit to get some Improvement. The current lingering and lag with the MJO in phase 6 flipped the PNA negative. Need to weaken the -PNA as the month progresses to get the gradient to our south and see colder temperatures again.

9FA1FDFE-DCF7-4C6A-96F4-5524DCEC8ECD.thumb.png.571ff7e1debd2c00a92ea7fc86c7b3f0.png

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