February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[Stormlover74]

With only 4 days left in January let's start discussing the 3rd and final month of meteorological winter. Will February prove to be snowy or another dud in what has so far been a dud winter for the coast?

[CIK62]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

First of all your links don't work and secondly aren't they protected by copyrights ? Or do you have permission from Weather Bell to post them here ?

Well these are really public info, but if they do not work, they must be protected.     Will delete.

Try this below, which does conflict with tendency shown on WxBell.     It showed AN after the front end cold.    A little confused here.    If this is WxBell calculations, why does JB keep blabbing about a cold Feb-Mar?     He speaks in riddles and has used too many analogs to foster his views.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/

In addition both the GEPS, GEFS do not look BN after Day 6/7, as many have noted.     Feb. is not getting off on the right side of the SE ridge, if it expects to finish BN.

[EastonSN+]

35 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Well these are really public info, but if they do not work, they must be protected.     Will delete.

Try this below, which does conflict with tendency shown on WxBell.     It showed AN after the front end cold.    A little confused here.    If this is WxBell calculations, why does JB keep blabbing about a cold Feb-Mar?     He speaks in riddles and has used too many analogs to foster his views.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/

In addition both the GEPS, GEFS do not look BN after Day 6/7, as many have noted.     Feb. is not getting off on the right side of the SE ridge, if it expects to finish BN.

Not arguing just trying to learn (I actually welcome sone warm temps), but why do the CFS weeklies attached show only 1 above normal temp week?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012712&fh=504

[CIK62]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not arguing just trying to learn (I actually welcome sone warm temps), but why do the CFS weeklies attached show only 1 above normal temp week?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012712&fh=504

It is nice to know the future, but the Skill Level on these CFS outputs does not make the grade.     It gave virtual certitude of an AN November that we know crashed and burned.     Analogs are just that, analogs.    Two people may look a lot alike, but not be related at all and have completely different mental and physical abilities.     Some group of mathematicians have determined that this method is better than plain guessing in the very long run.     But if you just say AN for every month w/o any considerations, you will be right 55%+ of the time anyway.     Remember if Jan. finishes AN, then for the last 64 months the record will be    43AN     21BN.    With the current 30-year normal, there are just more AN months.     If I told you there were 55 Red Balls and 45 Blue Balls, all identical,  inside an opaque drum---why would you say the one ball you choose would be blue? 

By the way, the same reasoning must apply to the 16 day OP.     Why stop there?  Let it ramble on and on!    Well, again, some group must have determined that Day 16 has the same validity of being meaningful  as dart throwing.   Don't waste precious computation time.

[Snow88]

Next storm to watch is next weekend. Possible gradient type storm.

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Next storm to watch is next weekend. Possible gradient type storm.

rain-coast snow-inland.  Although I dont see anything happening for next weekend and our milder pattern with temps in the mid 40s begins on Sunday with 50s by Monday.

 

[NEG NAO]

20 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Next storm to watch is next weekend. Possible gradient type storm.

only thing on the table as of today is this for late Friday  - a weak disturbance - time to understand that this pattern we have been in for quite a while is protecting the coast from Boston south from any significant frozen precip and nothing is in site as of today.

[Snow88]

41 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

only thing on the table as of today is this for late Friday  - a weak disturbance - time to understand that this pattern we have been in for quite a while is protecting the coast from Boston south from any significant frozen precip and nothing is in site as of today.

I was just about to post about this wave. Latest Euro is trending north with it. Maybe an inch or 2 ?

[Snow88]

Latest mjo of the euro is now going into 8. Big change.

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Latest mjo of the euro is now going into 8. Big change.

you are assuming this is going to be accurate - not a good idea  ass u me - especially this winter

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you are assuming this is going to be accurate - not a good idea  ass u me - especially this winter

And even if it does magically get to phase 8, they'll likely be a lag before the pattern turns favorable. This takes you into late Feb.

[Snow88]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

And even if it does magically get to phase 8, they'll likely be a lag before the pattern turns favorable. This takes you into late Feb.

What lag?

[Snow88]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

you are assuming this is going to be accurate - not a good idea  ass u me - especially this winter

Who is assuming? That is what it shows. Looks way better this morning.

[Ericjcrash]

Fv3 and ICON pushed north for Friday night.

[Snow88]

7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Fv3 and ICON pushed north for Friday night.

Yep. Nice little event if it verifies.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Yep. Nice little event if it verifies.

 

Euro still wants no part of it

[Snow88]

Brief warmup on the euro and then a coastal storm on day 9.

[TwcMan]

I posted this in the Jan thread but this isn’t a bad look at all for February. We’ll see if it holds or trends better with time. MJO is heading into p8. 

[Gravity Wave]

EPS looks great from the 10th on. We'll see if it holds, but the MJO likely progressing into P8 makes this believable.

[Stormlover74]

 

[JustinRP37]

So now if the models start pushing that 2/10 date back, we can say yeah forget about it. Let's hope we start to actually approach the real change to snowy.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

So now if the models start pushing that 2/10 date back, we can say yeah forget about it. Let's hope we start to actually approach the real change to snowy.

The pattern still isn’t good enough even at the end of the EPS if the NAO isn’t negative.  You can see purely for example purposes that at the end of the Day 10 Op Euro we are about to get another cutter.  

[JustinRP37]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The pattern still isn’t good enough even at the end of the EPS if the NAO isn’t negative.  You can see purely for example purposes that at the end of the Day 10 Op Euro we are about to get another cutter.  

One reason why I am just ready for this awful winter to be over. It is either rainy and warm or bone cold and dry. Not much room for outdoor sports and exercise. I would have already taken a vacation since the rain really brings me down, but with a 4 month old that can be hard. We are hoping to get to Vermont next month though to see some real snow. At one point we had more days with rain than we had dry days in his young life. I am hoping that we at least get out of this wet pattern by summer. 

[SnoSki14]

Temperatures are falling quickly. 16F now off of 34F, an 18 degree drop in 3 hours. 

[Dan76]

They called for a good second half of JAN to

[Gravity Wave]

12z temps tomorrow by model:

GFS: 4

FV3: ~2-3

3km NAM: 4

12km NAM: ~2-3

HRRR: 1

CMC: ~4-5

HRDPS: 0

RGEM: ~-1

ARW: 0

NMM: 1

[Gravity Wave]

4 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

They called for a good second half of JAN to

Didn't have any MJO support for that. And we did get 2 good storms, they just didn't work out for PHI-BOS.

[Snow88]

12 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

They called for a good second half of JAN to

And it did happen but not here. Everything is going as planned.

[JustinRP37]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

And it did happen but not here. Everything is going as planned.

Would you stop with the everything is going as planned business. Just a week ago nobody was calling for a spike in temperatures to start February. Go back the middle of December and people were saying shortly after the New Year and the MJO was heading to the right phases. What happened? It did not work out. Forward to just a few weeks ago, February is looking better. Then boom, spike in temperatures shows up. While I hope February 10th we really see some snow, but no nothing went as 'planned' this winter. Most people's long range forecasts busted in December and have further busted in January. The only thing I might get right on my own LR forecast is +1.5 to +2.5F on DJF temperatures. My snowfall of 100-120% average is likely going to bust and bust hard. 

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

John's knowledge and ability to articulate such are almost unparalleled, but I've noticed over the last couple seasons that his cold/snow bias has been showing through. He always seems to have a reason for optimism, which is great for us winter devotees... I just wonder whether it's the best thing to always present uncertainty in grand winter terms. Once in a while, it's nice to lay it out flat and say, "the next 2 weeks or so will have mild periods, and a range of potential outcomes exists after that."