NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 more virtual snow for us! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: more virtual snow for us! Went through 3 shovels this year so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 At least we have nice low water temps for the BDCF's https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Watching Dc get snow again today is pretty ruff. Luckily we at least had that squall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Watching Dc get snow again today is pretty ruff. Luckily we at least had that squall. I know-they've had 3 decent events. Winter 72-73 redux.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: A lot of what falls in our region from that run is actually ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: more virtual snow for us! Hopefully these come to reality soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Watching Dc get snow again today is pretty ruff. Luckily we at least had that squall. It’s not a common occurrence for DC to get to double digit seasonal snowfall by January 31st ahead of NYC. I could only find 4 other years since 1950. Seasonal snowfall by January 31st 2019....DCA......12.9......NYC.....7.5 2000..................14.5..................9.5 1990..................12.7...................7.9 1963..................18.3.........,.........9.8 1957...................10.3..................9.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s not a common occurrence for DC to get to double digit seasonal snowfall by January 31st ahead of NYC. I could only find 4 other years since 1950. Seasonal snowfall by January 31st 2019....DCA......12.9......NYC.....7.5 2000..................14.5..................9.5 1990..................12.7...................7.9 1963..................18.3.........,.........9.8 1957...................10.3..................9.8 How many of those years also had Boston at 2”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: How many of those years also had Boston at 2”? And 111.6” at Caribou,ME. The 2010’s winters are in a whole different league. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 The NY harbor buoy (13 miles offshore) water temp is down to 38. This will help coastal locations with mixing issues when the cold air comes back. So this cold blast wasn’t a total waste. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 44 minutes ago, jm1220 said: How many of those years also had Boston at 2”? ZERO We are experiencing the meteorologically impossible winter on no yore. Enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The NY harbor buoy (13 miles offshore) water temp is down to 38. This will help coastal locations with mixing issues when the cold air comes back. So this cold blast wasn’t a total waste. won't matter when there's a cutter to Detroit and it's 55 here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 hours ago, Dan76 said: At least we have nice low water temps for the BDCF's https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: How many of those years also had Boston at 2”? Boston Is now just over 3.5 for the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Boston Is now just over 3.5 for the winter. As per Boston's latest daily climate report, seasonal snowfall to date is 2.3" at Boston: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 At least NYC was able to go above 2012 for days with a high below 32. Today was number 6 on the season so far. NYC days with a high below 32 during the 2010’s 25......2014 21......2015 19......2018....2011 15......2010 10......2016 9........2017....2013 6........2019.....so far 4........2012 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 About 1.5 inches on the ground here. Just got back from a drifting session in the parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Pattern gets better by the 10th on the gefs. We need the epo to work out because the pna looks terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 according to this, the EPO is already negative. How accurate are these graphs? That’s an ugly PNA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Comical!! A real knee slapper!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Pattern gets better by the 10th on the gefs. We need the epo to work out because the pna looks terrible. As the days go by the frustration mounts. We just can't catch a break this winter. When one connector improves, another one goes to crap. All I ask for is just one MECS event then call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: As the days go by the frustration mounts. We just can't catch a break this winter. When one connector improves, another one goes to crap. All I ask for is just one MECS event then call it a winter. People 90 minutes west of us are out of school snow days already. It's snowed everywhere but Philly to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 23 minutes ago, TwcMan said: Comical!! A real knee slapper!! I'm gonna guess cause I really don't get this stuff....but the famed MJO isn't going to 8, is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: As the days go by the frustration mounts. We just can't catch a break this winter. When one connector improves, another one goes to crap. All I ask for is just one MECS event then call it a winter. Someone here tell me what all the phases need to be in, so I can go do something else with my time if they are unfavorable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 A weak system brought accumulating snow to parts of the Middle Atlantic region today. Snowfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 0.3"; Baltimore: 0.8"; Philadelphia: 0.3"; Washington, DC: 0.8"; and, Wilmington, DE: 0.8". The SOI was +6.96 today. Should the MJO move into Phase 7 and remain there for a time at a high amplitude, the SOI should go negative. At a low amplitude, the historical tendency has been almost evenly split. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.537. That was the lowest figure since November 26, 2018 when the AO was -3.629. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.315. On January 30, the MJO moved into Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.720 (RMM). That amplitude had increased from the January 29-adjusted figure of 1.457. In coming days, there is significant uncertainty about the MJO's progression. Such uncertainty is greater than usual, even as ensemble forecasts of the MJO typically have low skill beyond 120 hours. Some of the guidance takes it into Phase 8. Other guidance takes it toward or into a low amplitude, even temporarily back to Phase 6. The Canadian ensembles take it all the way back to Phase 5. Such an outcome would likely result in a generally warm February in the East. However, the Canadian ensembles are an outlier. Given both historic data and the other guidance, the Canadian ensembles should be discounted. Nevertheless, the risks of a turn toward Phase 6 or a drop to low amplitude prior to any move to Phase 8 is somewhat more likely than a straight progression at high amplitude into Phase 8. Phase 7 at low amplitude favors a positive AO. As a result, the AO will likely rise from today's seasonal low to date. There remains some possibility of a short period where the AO reaches slightly positive values. As a result, temperatures a pronounced warmup from the recent cold is on tap. However, that warmup still appears to be temporary. Colder air should follow by the end of that week. There remains a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative and blocking could redevelop. In sum, the base case remains the idea of a short-term warmup, with colder air returning by the end of next week. Afterward, the redevelopment or restrengthening of blocking could lead to a multi-week period of readings that would generally wind up below normal in the eastern third of the U.S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: Someone here tell me what all the phases need to be in, so I can go do something else with my time if they are unfavorable... someone hasn't been paying attention in class - that's all the professors here have been discussing all semester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A weak system brought accumulating snow to parts of the Middle Atlantic region today. Snowfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 0.3"; Baltimore: 0.8"; Philadelphia: 0.3"; Washington, DC: 0.8"; and, Wilmington, DE: 0.8". The SOI was +6.96 today. Should the MJO move into Phase 7 and remain there for a time at a high amplitude, the SOI should go negative. At a low amplitude, the historical tendency has been almost evenly split. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.537. That was the lowest figure since November 26, 2018 when the AO was -3.629. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.315. On January 30, the MJO moved into Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.720 (RMM). That amplitude had increased from the January 29-adjusted figure of 1.457. In coming days, there is significant uncertainty about the MJO's progression. Such uncertainty is greater than usual, even as ensemble forecasts of the MJO typically have low skill beyond 120 hours. Some of the guidance takes it into Phase 8. Other guidance takes it toward or into a low amplitude, even temporarily back to Phase 6. The Canadian ensembles take it all the way back to Phase 5. Such an outcome would likely result in a generally warm February in the East. However, the Canadian ensembles are an outlier. Given both historic data and the other guidance, the Canadian ensembles should be discounted. Nevertheless, the risks of a turn toward Phase 6 or a drop to low amplitude prior to any move to Phase 8 is somewhat more likely than a straight progression at high amplitude into Phase 8. Phase 7 at low amplitude favors a positive AO. As a result, the AO will likely rise from today's seasonal low to date. There remains some possibility of a short period where the AO reaches slightly positive values. As a result, temperatures a pronounced warmup from the recent cold is on tap. However, that warmup still appears to be temporary. Colder air should follow by the end of that week. There remains a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative and blocking could redevelop. In sum, the base case remains the idea of a short-term warmup, with colder air returning by the end of next week. Afterward, the redevelopment or restrengthening of blocking could lead to a multi-week period of readings that would generally wind up below normal in the eastern third of the U.S. and no mention anymore of snowstorms...……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Next week looks interesting. We’ll get some rain but it looks to cut so much and it looks like there won’t be Gulf of Mexico out of that so we’ll get some showers and probably get colder with plenty of chances for frozen precipitation after that. As of Thursday looks colder with mostly frozen precipitation according to the GfS para 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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