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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Which ensembles ? Eps is not ugly right into mid month.

There is a decent signal for a storm around the 11-12 but too early for details.

What’s with the change in the profile photo? Maybe it changes our luck this winter. 

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Welcome to February and radiational cooling in nw NJ, Lows this morning 10 below, Pequest, Andover (12N),  15 below Sussex (FWN), 16-22 Below Sandyston and Walpack respectively, all in Warren and Sussex Counties of nw NJ.  My house (740'MSL in Wantage NJ, ~3 mi from FWN and 250' higher   only -2.  Ditto -2 at High Point.  This over 4" snow cover throughout.  Guidance (coldest MOS), missed Sussex by at least 7F.  I believe these subzero readings will occur again tonight, though probably 5 or 10F warmer. Still,  we're not quite out of this below normal cold airmass here.  I am also aware of the EC 2M 7-10Fbust for yesterday morning near CHI (uncommon in a well mixed environment).  At least it picked up on Rockford, and apparently per Joe Bastardi tweet, it got down to near ~ -38F in nw IL (unconfirmed coldest state record?).  Have a good day anticipating, after Feb 6 (ice events i84), or after Feb 14 (snow) as many have noted here.   A BIG test for FV3 vs the currently operational GFS from Feb 7 onward when the FV3 is much colder than its soon to replace GFS.  This one I want to remember (Feb 7-15 00z/06z versions).  I've seen FV3 miss date of events compared to the current GFS.  However, am informed that the FV3 is apparently better on on type than the GFS.  This I dont know. I may not break able top respond after 845A today.  By the way,  you're seeing infrastructure impacts now in the coldest parts of the country-watert mains.  Yesterday here in nw NJ... groups of trucks could not start early yesterday morning (subzero), delaying deliveries. 

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11 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

I agree with Snow88.  EPS is crumbs to mid-month, especially Week 2.   Then it is BN for 30 days everywhere in US.   But this is going to be stale cold air because of its wide coverage, late winter arrival.

Root for the EPS to get the MJO over to phase 8 around the 10th. But remember there can be a lag. 

 

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

I agree with Snow88.  EPS is crumbs to mid-month, especially Week 2.   Then it is BN for 30 days everywhere in US.   But this is going to be stale cold air because of its wide coverage, late winter arrival.

If it comes at all.   The 1st week Feb Warmup was only seen about a week out.  Who knows what it will look like come 2/15....modeling has been horrid this winter...

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36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If it comes at all.   The 1st week Feb Warmup was only seen about a week out.  Who knows what it will look like come 2/15....modeling has been horrid this winter...

Some people had basically guaranteed we would be in MJO phase 8, cold and snowy the 1st 2 weeks of February and look at what happened 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We will need to see the MJO forcing west of the Date Line fade out a bit to get some Improvement. The current lingering and lag with the MJO in phase 6 flipped the PNA negative. Need to weaken the -PNA as the month progresses to get the gradient to our south and see colder temperatures again.

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The new CANSIPS has a huge RNA/-PNA pattern for February 

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59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Some people had basically guaranteed we would be in MJO phase 8, cold and snowy the 1st 2 weeks of February and look at what happened 

HM was the the only one who said he had a hunch in mid January we would cycle through the bad phases again but he wasnt too confident either way.   It still looks to me we will go normal to below 2-7 or 2/8 and beyond but we may have a cutter 2/10-2/12 before we completely reverse things 2/15 

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13 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Educate me here a little please if you will.  With so much emphasis on the MJO, am I correct in assuming that this index is the top driver of our pattern?  Is it the MJO phase that determines the shape of other Tele indeces like the NAO, AO, PNA, etc?!

if you want to get educated on the MJO its better to read articles online by qualified pros - around here you will get 50  different opinions...

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care

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