• Member Statistics

    15,773
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WxUSAF

January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Every run has a small wobble but it always seems to end up like this

oqYcYkI.png

CHO hole =(

It's a solid run though. Not even sure that the WxBell Kuchera is counting all the precip as snow -- for whatever reason the Ptype depiction has spots flipping to rain at the end. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Curious fellas can you show Connecticut on the Euro 

It isn't pretty. Trace - 1" except for far NW corner with 2-3". This run is an I95 snowhole from NYC to BOS. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bob Chill said:

It isn't pretty. Trace - 1" except for far NW corner with 2-3". This run is an I95 snowhole from NYC to BOS. 

Ok cool...I'd rather my house get smoked anyway. Something pretty to come home to

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Chase said:

Will this one bring the true "flash freeze?" 

Mythical.  Like the backend crush job...only happens in fantasyland...and San Quentin

  • Like 3
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Chase said:

Will this one bring the true "flash freeze?" 

Flash freezes don't happen in real life.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Mythical.  Like the backend crush job...only happens in fantasyland...and San Quentin

I used to live in Pocahontas County, WV and flash freezes are def real usually accompanied by snow showers but not always.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Inthepines said:

I used to live in Pocahontas County, WV and flash freezes are def real usually accompanied by snow showers but not always.

Mythical outside Pocahontas County, WV.  And John Smith County of course. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Unmitigated catastrophe this winter (so far)

You doing ok?  This can all end quickly if you wish.  I know a guy..carries a sickle...hood...he is gentle but determined

  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You doing ok?  This can all end quickly if you wish.  I know a guy..carries a sickle...hood...he is gentle but determined

Like I said, wagons north

ls62YVk.jpg

tS1sNYe.jpg

 

Anyway, not to clutter the thread but I think you’re in good shape at this lead time. If fropa ends up being half of 2/14/15 it’ll be an awesome event.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Curious if showme has thoughts on the latest run and if we are seeing better development of the low to the south.

Wife dragged me out shopping so I only just now got a chance to look. :(

Didn't dive too deep into the Euro/Eps but what I saw wasn't very promising for a stronger southern low/coastal. Though the Euro op has been very consistent of late, which is very hard to dismiss at this range, I was hoping that the EPS was throwing up a red flag on it with so many different evolutions in the east on the 00z run many of which were favorable for something more. But the latest EPS run actually made what I thought was a pretty strong move towards the op which is pretty telling. Also didn't see much if any support from the other models as well. I am not one to give up so easily especially with a somewhat difficult setup so i will see this through. But I admittedly am starting to hear the Fat Lady sing in the distance in regards to anything more then what the Euro op has to offer.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL. Just finished my post then saw the NAM with picking up on a stronger southern low moving up to off our coast. Shame it's the NAM at range and probably not worth the time to even look at.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What the nam shows would be awesome and I think the high end scenario for us. 3 to 6 inches of over an 8 hour period with falling temps. Trough going negative early enough to really benefit us. TO bad it's the nam at 84 hours

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12K would be sweet. 5-6 hours of puke. I was playing with the soundings and I dont think Anyone Leesburg west would see any rain. Just a wall of snow if it verified. Could really be a fun little event.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I don't think people realize how practically every model is close to worthless at the end of their ranges.

You don't say? Thank you for enlightening us. 

#CaptainObvious

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure why I am really looking into the NAM but for whatever it is worth we did see what was needed for a better solution. A sharper, deeper trough drop and a stronger shortwave rounding the base of that trough. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.