Hoth Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Good trend if you like ice damage. This looks ugly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Damn. 2.5” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Damn. 2.5” here. You better hope that's mostly pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Thanks. Thanks. if the snow areas can muster a little better than 10:1 this could be some nice piling in NW Mass. Nice run for Mitch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I asked Ryan this yesterday but he must have missed it. What is the accretion rate on snow that is clinging to branches power lines. Seems like bare surface would be better. Not sure I’ve seen a study on that specifically. Snow will absorb the rain before it freezes, so it can be equally damaging to the canopies. You probably get less run off with covered covered trees, but more true ice with bare trees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways. A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range. Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Good trend if you like ice damage. ugghhh, the recent trends have not been good. I think this Euro run gets me up to 35 now, so that might help out a bit. However, when the last second SE tick happens it will park us at 30 with a ton of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Not sure I’ve seen a study on that specifically. Snow will absorb the rain before it freezes, so it can be equally damaging to the canopies. You probably get less run off with covered covered trees, but more true ice with bare trees. Thanks today I was thinking more weight than if bare trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways. A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range. Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo. Wicked upglide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Damn. 2.5” here. SE MA jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sleet bitch Zr Moreso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways. A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range. Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo. Hybrid, Certainly not your typical SWFE, Cross between a Miller B and SWFE would be my label. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Zr Moreso What’s the lowest above freezing elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: What’s the lowest above freezing elevation? Hamden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Not perfect considering the warm layer around H75, but this definitely doesn't suck either. We'd probably get some very good growth in the cloud tops and then some riming in the meh layer. There's good growth in the lower omega too. I like the progs in Mass too. There's a brief period where many have sleet after falling through a +2C layer and then into -14C one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Hybrid, Certainly not your typical SWFE, Cross between a Miller B and SWFE would be my label. Exactly what I called it today. Just like I always call Christmas 2002 a Miller AB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Exactly what I called it today. Just like I always call Christmas 2002 a Miller AB Ha, 2002, That just shows how untypical these types are, I really can't recall where we would have classified another one like this up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Anyone care to do a ballpark for 1000 asl in Northern Worcester Cty? My uneducated guess is 11” snow, 1” sleet, a trace of ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wicked upglide Yeah, WAA will be serious. But as Brian notes, even with that lift we’ll get some riming in the warm nose that will chip away at ratios. Probably also going to get some fracturing of flakes with such strong lift. 10-15:1 should be fine. More than that and I’m skeptical. 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not perfect considering the warm layer around H75, but this definitely doesn't suck either. We'd probably get some very good growth in the cloud tops and then some riming in the meh layer. There's good growth in the lower omega too. I like the progs in Mass too. There's a brief period where many have sleet after falling through a +2C layer and then into -14C one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Anyone care to do a ballpark for 1000 asl in Northern Worcester Cty? My uneducated guess is 11” snow, 1” sleet, a trace of ice... Beware the warm tongue of Harper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looking at the NAM on BUFKIT it's definitely got a big ice storm signal for New Haven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: Looking at the NAM on BUFKIT it's definitely got a big ice storm signal for New Haven. How does NE Corner look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Modfan said: How does NE Corner look? Sleety. Though the ECMWF is substantially warmer in mid levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looking at the NAM on BUFKIT it's definitely got a big ice storm signal for New Haven. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 SREFS warmed a bit also mean snowfall at BDL is 3.5. Ice ice baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Tiktock said: I live about 10mi NE of you. I'll be standing on 495 near Haverhill with a "YOU SHALL NOT PASS" sign if the sleet starts coming towards us. I'm going to mark my self as "safe" on Facebook if the H850 0C isotherm reaches me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 43 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: ugghhh, the recent trends have not been good. I think this Euro run gets me up to 35 now, so that might help out a bit. However, when the last second SE tick happens it will park us at 30 with a ton of rain... You further south than me but I highly doubt you or I get a above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 50 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways. A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range. Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo. Man, I am surprised that the EURO is giving me 1.9" of QPF so late in the game.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yup Looks like rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You further south than me but I highly doubt you or I get a above freezing. Agreed, I think we're in some trouble with icing in our neck of the woods. First winter in Bethany (away from the city Bridgeport & Hamden) and I don't have a generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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