Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Looks like rain?

That's because the very surface is above freezing...adjust for the models warming the sfc lyer too much and you've got like 29-30F and ice there.

[Ginx snewx]

Hopefully meso 3k is right about pellets 

[Bostonseminole]

NAM looking a little more amped but might still be OK downstream, we will see.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's because the very surface is above freezing...adjust for the models warming the sfc lyer too much and you've got like 29-30F and ice there.

If our assumptions are correct 

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm  going to mark my self as "safe" on Facebook if the H850 0C isotherm reaches me.

May need to look higher.

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You further south than me but I highly doubt you or I get a above freezing. 

Nowcast for sure, I just want to see some snow accumulate and stick around for a bit. Even if we end up hitting 33-34 for a couple hours we should be fine...Just as long as we get more than 3 inches.

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If our assumptions are correct 

On BUFKIT for KHVN it is definitely sub 32. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If our assumptions are correct 

They most likely are...obviously there is an outside chance this just gets so zonked it runs up your fanny....but my guess is the sfc is modeled too warm on most guidance.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

May need to look higher.

Razor

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

On BUFKIT for KHVN it is definitely sub 32. 

Interesting I get something different but like Will said probably too warm

RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106   10:1|  2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 0.78    0|  0|100
190120/1000Z  40  06014KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.160   10:1|  2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 0.94    0|  0|100
190120/1100Z  41  04012KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126   10:1|  2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 1.07    0|  0|100
190120/1200Z  42  03012KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113   10:1|  2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 1.18    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190120/1300Z  43  03013KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.095   10:1|  2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 1.27    0|  0|100
190120/1400Z  44  04010KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119   10:1|  2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 1.39    0|  0|100
190120/1500Z  45  03013KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113   10:1|  2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 1.51    0|  0|100
190120/1600Z  46  36016KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.128   10:1|  2.3|| 0.41|| 0.38|| 1.63    0|  0|100
190120/1700Z  47  36021KT  24.7F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.035   10:1|  2.3|| 0.49|| 0.38|| 1.67    0|100|  0
190120/1800Z  48  01022KT  20.7F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.005   10:1|  2.3|| 0.50|| 0.38|| 1.67    0|100|  0

[Bostonseminole]

NAM looks like a pounding

[dryslot]

0z Nam amped, Juiced and NW of the 18z run by a couple more tics.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Razor

I'm leaning toward sticking with my 8-14" n of the pike....I could honestly see either end of the range verifying here. However I'm also expecting a colder tick either at 00z or tmw....so I will have to see.

Either way, I am going to have one dense pack after this event....reminds me a lot of VD Day 2007 deal.

[Bostonseminole]

for CNE

[Hoth]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

On BUFKIT for KHVN it is definitely sub 32. 

Put down 4-5 inches of snow with .4-.6 of ice on top and we'll have problems down here for sure.

[Bostonseminole]

that nasty warm tounge just above 850 is killing us.. 

[Bostonseminole]

not a good start to the 0Z models.. 

[ORH_wxman]

I'll take that run...that's a nice pounding here for about 6 hours. Actually looked better than 18z for the forcing.

[moneypitmike]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I am surprised that the EURO is giving me 1.9" of QPF so late in the game....

If you can't have ratios, hope for the qpf.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'll take that run...that's a nice pounding here for about 6 hours. Actually looked better than 18z for the forcing.

Looks in good agreement with the EURO..about 8-10" here, then a ton of sleet.

[weathafella]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'll take that run...that's a nice pounding here for about 6 hours. Actually looked better than 18z for the forcing.

That’s what I thought !  I want to see the sounding for the sleet.

[weathafella]

That’s like a foot on the front end.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

not a good start to the 0Z models.. 

If you want over a 1', sure....buts its fine for us.

[dryslot]

That's a pounding of snow up here, Similar to 18z.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

That’s what I thought !  I want to see the sounding for the sleet.

BOS looks good through about 09z ad then 12z is pellets

 

 

[weathafella]

Robust parting gift with snow. Sunday afternoon!

[40/70 Benchmark]

TBH, I'd rather have 9" of snow, then a ton of sleet...then 9" followed by a meteorological ego stroke amid P Sunny skies for having remained all snow.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Qpf in line with the Euro?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you want over a 1', sure....buts its fine for us.

The front end looked a bit better...it had a more defined bent back midlevel WF passing through us so better lift. That's what you want to see for big time rates on a front ender. It can also slow down the advance of the sleet too a bit more than guidance shows.

[Bostonseminole]

sorry read that wrong..  yeah looks like close to 10" here before we sleet