weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Zr Moreso What’s the lowest above freezing elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: What’s the lowest above freezing elevation? Hamden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Not perfect considering the warm layer around H75, but this definitely doesn't suck either. We'd probably get some very good growth in the cloud tops and then some riming in the meh layer. There's good growth in the lower omega too. I like the progs in Mass too. There's a brief period where many have sleet after falling through a +2C layer and then into -14C one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Hybrid, Certainly not your typical SWFE, Cross between a Miller B and SWFE would be my label. Exactly what I called it today. Just like I always call Christmas 2002 a Miller AB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Exactly what I called it today. Just like I always call Christmas 2002 a Miller AB Ha, 2002, That just shows how untypical these types are, I really can't recall where we would have classified another one like this up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Anyone care to do a ballpark for 1000 asl in Northern Worcester Cty? My uneducated guess is 11” snow, 1” sleet, a trace of ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wicked upglide Yeah, WAA will be serious. But as Brian notes, even with that lift we’ll get some riming in the warm nose that will chip away at ratios. Probably also going to get some fracturing of flakes with such strong lift. 10-15:1 should be fine. More than that and I’m skeptical. 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not perfect considering the warm layer around H75, but this definitely doesn't suck either. We'd probably get some very good growth in the cloud tops and then some riming in the meh layer. There's good growth in the lower omega too. I like the progs in Mass too. There's a brief period where many have sleet after falling through a +2C layer and then into -14C one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Anyone care to do a ballpark for 1000 asl in Northern Worcester Cty? My uneducated guess is 11” snow, 1” sleet, a trace of ice... Beware the warm tongue of Harper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looking at the NAM on BUFKIT it's definitely got a big ice storm signal for New Haven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: Looking at the NAM on BUFKIT it's definitely got a big ice storm signal for New Haven. How does NE Corner look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Modfan said: How does NE Corner look? Sleety. Though the ECMWF is substantially warmer in mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looking at the NAM on BUFKIT it's definitely got a big ice storm signal for New Haven. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 SREFS warmed a bit also mean snowfall at BDL is 3.5. Ice ice baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Tiktock said: I live about 10mi NE of you. I'll be standing on 495 near Haverhill with a "YOU SHALL NOT PASS" sign if the sleet starts coming towards us. I'm going to mark my self as "safe" on Facebook if the H850 0C isotherm reaches me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 43 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: ugghhh, the recent trends have not been good. I think this Euro run gets me up to 35 now, so that might help out a bit. However, when the last second SE tick happens it will park us at 30 with a ton of rain... You further south than me but I highly doubt you or I get a above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 50 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways. A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range. Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo. Man, I am surprised that the EURO is giving me 1.9" of QPF so late in the game.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yup Looks like rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You further south than me but I highly doubt you or I get a above freezing. Agreed, I think we're in some trouble with icing in our neck of the woods. First winter in Bethany (away from the city Bridgeport & Hamden) and I don't have a generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Looks like rain? That's because the very surface is above freezing...adjust for the models warming the sfc lyer too much and you've got like 29-30F and ice there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Hopefully meso 3k is right about pellets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NAM looking a little more amped but might still be OK downstream, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's because the very surface is above freezing...adjust for the models warming the sfc lyer too much and you've got like 29-30F and ice there. If our assumptions are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm going to mark my self as "safe" on Facebook if the H850 0C isotherm reaches me. May need to look higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You further south than me but I highly doubt you or I get a above freezing. Nowcast for sure, I just want to see some snow accumulate and stick around for a bit. Even if we end up hitting 33-34 for a couple hours we should be fine...Just as long as we get more than 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If our assumptions are correct On BUFKIT for KHVN it is definitely sub 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If our assumptions are correct They most likely are...obviously there is an outside chance this just gets so zonked it runs up your fanny....but my guess is the sfc is modeled too warm on most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: May need to look higher. Razor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: On BUFKIT for KHVN it is definitely sub 32. Interesting I get something different but like Will said probably too warm RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106 10:1| 2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 0.78 0| 0|100 190120/1000Z 40 06014KT 33.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.160 10:1| 2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 0.94 0| 0|100 190120/1100Z 41 04012KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 10:1| 2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 1.07 0| 0|100 190120/1200Z 42 03012KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 10:1| 2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 1.18 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 190120/1300Z 43 03013KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.095 10:1| 2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 1.27 0| 0|100 190120/1400Z 44 04010KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 10:1| 2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 1.39 0| 0|100 190120/1500Z 45 03013KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 10:1| 2.3|| 0.41|| 0.25|| 1.51 0| 0|100 190120/1600Z 46 36016KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.128 10:1| 2.3|| 0.41|| 0.38|| 1.63 0| 0|100 190120/1700Z 47 36021KT 24.7F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.035 10:1| 2.3|| 0.49|| 0.38|| 1.67 0|100| 0 190120/1800Z 48 01022KT 20.7F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.005 10:1| 2.3|| 0.50|| 0.38|| 1.67 0|100| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NAM looks like a pounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 0z Nam amped, Juiced and NW of the 18z run by a couple more tics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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