dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. Agree. It’ll have a faux win anytime a system trends warmer in the shorter range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You can envision Euro tucking colder at 12z today . It’ll be classic euro as it takes the lead and all the weenies that jumped off the bus jump back on. That high and cold air not gonna be denied Keep holding on my brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You can envision Euro tucking colder at 12z today . It’ll be classic euro as it takes the lead and all the weenies that jumped off the bus jump back on. That high and cold air not gonna be denied idk, this whole latent heat discussion has me all hot and bothered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. Should this play out like we're seeing now: Sensible weather wise, GFS did the best. NAM missed all over the place. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Euro wins the prize being the most consistent in it's being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. Just like people thought the GFS was right on the blizzard bust a few winters ago. It was right for the wrong reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Should this play out like we're seeing now: Sensible weather wise, GFS did the best. NAM missed all over the place. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Euro wins the prize being the most consistent in it's being wrong. Seems voodoo ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You can envision the Euro tickling North as it’s been doing for the last 4 cycles or so. Sleet and FZRA into SNH. It’s a virtual lock sleet in C NH frzr will be potentially crippling rindge/ temple /Hollis . Inland S NH ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 It’ll be interesting to see how long BOS can go before getting its first inch if it doesn’t happen with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s a virtual lock sleet in C NH frzr will be potentially crippling rindge/ temple /Hollis . Inland S NH ... Lol. Euro has not come north and warmed. Been consistent. Sone of you guys have lost it. Stick with Will. He knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s a virtual lock sleet in C NH frzr will be potentially crippling rindge/ temple /Hollis Glad we don't live there with the ensuing mild-down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. Correct. Also just using the NAM as an example. Look at how the heights elongate westward in Canada as a result of the stronger southern s/w. This allows heights ahead to be pumped up just enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. Euro has not come north and warmed. Been consistent. Sone of you guys have lost it. Stuck with Will. Hr knows I would love for KURO to not budge or tickle S . We will see at Funkys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Meanwhile Mets south of the Pike doing shots of whiskey and chasing them with Pepto Bismol over this storm! Pretty much a now cast event and someone is going to get a decent ice storm out of this the question is where does it set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Should I be worried about sleet here at Killington tomorrow now? Really don’t want pellets hitting me in the face. That seems crazy but that warm layer keeps trending north every run. Starting to wonder if I should have gone further north to Bush Stowe or Smuggs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s a virtual lock sleet in C NH frzr will be potentially crippling rindge/ temple /Hollis . Inland S NH ... But what about me?!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 41 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I just want the Patriots to win. I'm with you, James. And I want the power to stay on so we can watch it. That is all I ask from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I think there's been a collective chiding and of the GFS all along ... a lot of which was unfair. I admit, I was susceptible to the colder solution, myself... but I'm glad I never threw the GFS under the bus like I read so many posts. I was taught years ago to work with a model's biases - that's a art that's lost on this crew at times from what I've observed over the years. I Because now we're closing in ... and the arctic boundary ... although it came through, the cold air (appears) to not have penetrate quite as deeply as the colder camped guidance suggested all week it would. That was a key factor in prevention of a NW track. The NAM is moving the warm-front past Logan ...and this is going to cause tsunamis of angry/bargaining post prior to post-mortem depression... finally, acceptance - a cycling that really does take place in here with eerily similarity to that phenomenon. But don't blame me while your sequencing through all that - I'm just reporting what has happened, and what is happening now: people made fun of and ridiculed a model before verification guidance is jamming said model's warmer looks down our throats Having said that... maybe the arctic air is, secondarily now being sampled wrong and is under-estimated in the models... Yeah, okay. Sure, could go back the other direction. But, I think the ship has already sailed on pointing out why we shouldn't admonish the GFS like we find it so satisfying to do so, when it so happens to illustrate evolution we don't want. Just trying to be fair man - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: But what about me?!!! U look so screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 TOR Warning down in MS, pretty active down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 maybe I can get some OES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 How's the ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Well, this sucks. Time to root on futility? I'm about ready...too bad Feb '17 isn't walking through that door. I'd like to see FIT hit 80F again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: How's the ICON? I’m guessing colder...every post I saw about that with this event said it was colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Tip trying to pretend he’s Sigmund Freud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Its crazy to think how cold its been lately, that the second a storm comes up, it turns into rain. I am hopefully that the meso models and short-range models pick up on the cold air, but seems like HVN area is gonna get a quick burst of snow, then rain (based on QPF, a lot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Based on TWC coverage and maps you’d think icing was a big threat well into central ME. Also hearing lots of torch talk on here, but GYX forecasts and discussions don’t seem to be buying it - at least for this area. Still calling for 14” for PWM. Guess I should be bracing for a bust like everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m guessing colder...every post I saw about that with this event said it was colder. Actually yeah, a bit colder lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s a virtual lock sleet in C NH frzr will be potentially crippling rindge/ temple /Hollis . Inland S NH ... I think the big ice will be Kevin to Worcester. Sleet up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: Actually yeah, a bit colder lol still torches us but man that's allot of liquid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Dewpoint drain is already happening and will continue most of today. I think people who are taking guidance at face value or close to it are going to be somewhat surprised. BOS already down to 13F with single digits filtering down coastline and CT valley in CNE. I've seen this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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