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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. 

Should this play out like we're seeing now:

Sensible weather wise, GFS did the best.  

NAM missed all over the place.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Euro wins the prize being the most consistent in it's being wrong.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. 

Correct.  Also just using the NAM as an example.  Look at how the heights elongate westward in Canada as a result of the stronger southern s/w.  This allows heights ahead to be pumped up just enough.

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I think there's been a collective chiding and of the GFS all along ... a lot of which was unfair. 

I admit, I was susceptible to the colder solution, myself...  but I'm glad I never threw the GFS under the bus like I read so many posts.  I was taught years ago to work with a model's biases  - that's a art that's lost on this crew at times from what I've observed over the years.  I

Because now we're closing in ... and the arctic boundary ... although it came through, the cold air (appears) to not have penetrate quite as deeply as the colder camped guidance suggested all week it would. That was a key factor in prevention of a NW track.  The NAM is moving the warm-front past Logan ...and this is going to cause tsunamis of angry/bargaining post prior to post-mortem depression... finally, acceptance - a cycling that really does take place in here with eerily similarity to that phenomenon.  But don't blame me while your sequencing through all that - I'm just reporting what has happened, and what is happening now: 

people made fun of and ridiculed a model before verification

guidance is jamming said model's warmer looks down our throats

Having said that... maybe the arctic air is, secondarily now being sampled wrong and is under-estimated in the models... Yeah, okay. Sure, could go back the other direction.  But, I think the ship has already sailed on pointing out why we shouldn't admonish the GFS like we find it so satisfying to do so, when it so happens to illustrate evolution we don't want.

Just trying to be fair man -

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Based on TWC coverage and maps you’d think icing was a big threat well into central ME. Also hearing lots of torch talk on here, but GYX forecasts and discussions don’t seem to be buying it - at least for this area. Still calling for 14” for PWM. Guess I should be bracing for a bust like everyone else.

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Dewpoint drain is already happening and will continue most of today. I think people who are taking guidance at face value or close to it are going to be somewhat surprised. BOS already down to 13F with single digits filtering down coastline and CT valley in CNE. I've seen this before. 

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