ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 That's prob big time ice in N CT and into C MA on the GFS. Lot of QPF between 09z and 18z with an elevated warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: Trends are great in CT for anyone who ever wanted a skating rink in their yard. Flooding rain followed by a flash freeze. I always said I’d prefer a 50 degree rainstorm to a crushing ice storm...I guess I should be happy. They do that a lot around here ... it's pretty cool actually. I'm not sure the climate S of HFD allows for it ... I guess maybe in the hills west of Wilmantic? But they perimeterize these 50 by 100 foot square regions in their lawns, then put a rubber footing against the walls and ground. About 6" tall... fill it with 5" of water, ...which is a lot, but then it freezes - viola! skating rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 When the gfs is colder in thermals than the NAM.. you’d better pay attn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, drstuess said: Guessing Killington will be more than fine. Mt Ellen will be packed as well; no hiding this weekend. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk There are places to hide on the backside at Killington that aren’t that bad. And with a beginner in tow that terrain is nice anyways. Just don’t want ice pelting me in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not unhappy here. If we cant all snow sleet then wash it away before a yard skating rink sets up. Dogs could get injured. I would love to see mid 40s for 3 hrs I could use some rain. The frozen ponds on my yard left from the previous storms have been shrinking. I need a replenishment. Alas, I've go a ping-fest incoming. At least I'll have my power though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Why are you timing your neighbors' conversations? Because this woman is rediculous, loud and annoying, and the walls are thin, and I am doing mindless stuff right now. I just decided to do it today. I timed it once before and record is 51 minutes. When they walk out of their place, the guy just looks so defeated every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The SPC HREF to me makes way more sense then any guidance. As far as temps goes. Maybe it’s wrong and this goes over BOS, but I like how it displays the srfc thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I'd take the 3-7" of snow currently forecast and run. Looks like another slap in the face for SNE skiing at the worst possible time. 4 inches max I think. Then a ton of zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Cold Miser said: Because this woman is rediculous, loud and annoying, and the walls are thin, and I am doing mindless stuff right now. I just decided to do it today. I timed it once beofore and record is 51 minutes. When they walk out of their place, the guy just looks so defeated every time. Nothing worse than a person who loves hearing themselves talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looks like the first freezing rain event since last February. Had 0.6" then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nothing worse than a person who loves hearing themselves talk. In this case it might make for a good Gillette commercial. She is completely in command.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Gonna be a tight call for CT, esp from Merritt on northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The SPC HREF to me makes way more sense then any guidance. As far as temps goes. Maybe it’s wrong and this goes over BOS, but I like how it displays the srfc thermals. Can you fire it up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Cold Miser said: In this case it might make for a good Gillette commercial. She is completely in command.. QBIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Based on the early alarms broadcast about this event, this could go down as an historical bust, particularly if there is nothing crazy ice-wise. 3’ to 5”. Not much Of a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The SPC HREF to me makes way more sense then any guidance. As far as temps goes. Maybe it’s wrong and this goes over BOS, but I like how it displays the srfc thermals. Most of the really hi res stuff has little mesolow protrusions off E MA near Cape and PYM. That's how I see this going. It's going to lock in the airmass. I know everyone is all bummed out about torched midlevels but those dews draining down near the sfc are no joke. In the 2008 ice storm we didn't have any Arctic airmass at all and started the event as 37F rain but we slowly advected upper 20s dews into the storm. This one has a lot more to offer than that. Obviously not the same qpf though. But that's not gonna get advected out easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: They do that a lot around here ... it's pretty cool actually. I'm not sure the climate S of HFD allows for it ... I guess maybe in the hills west of Wilmantic? But they perimeterize these 50 by 100 foot square regions in their lawns, then put a rubber footing against the walls and ground. About 6" tall... fill it with 5" of water, ...which is a lot, but then it freezes - viola! skating rink. I'll see what I can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just got out of my son's basketball game and we have some light snow falling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 38 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: Trends are great in CT for anyone who ever wanted a skating rink in their yard. Flooding rain followed by a flash freeze. I always said I’d prefer a 50 degree rainstorm to a crushing ice storm...I guess I should be happy. This I am pleased about. Everyone was petrified of ice and I am tired of losing power. If it's not going to snow lets get warm enough to remove freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I’m gonna scream at mpm at the gtg if he complains goddammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: I’m gonna scream at mpm at the gtg if he complains goddammit! He will be choked out by Ray, Scott and Will and we will find him nervously sipping diet cokes in fetal position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Based on the early alarms broadcast about this event, this could go down as an historical bust, particularly if there is nothing crazy ice-wise. 3’ to 5”. Not much Of a miss. Not to quibble over inherently subjective semantics but... this wouldn't even make the top 10. A bust is when a region is closer to utterly blind-sided .... Technically, there's no lead warning or anticipation and the situation goes awry - that's a bust, for worse(better). This still has hours leading.. and frankly, the contentious nature of modeling guidance means the blind part kinda fails... but it's moot because we are being warned with enough time to react accordingly. Not a bust. If we want to argue poor modeling performance ...sure... that's different than blind-side variant result though. Look, I understand frustration ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When the gfs is colder in thermals than the NAM.. you’d better pay attn Here’s the thing, it’s not colder then the NAM in SNE. They are virtually identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Even ALB is now with a tall sleet column at max ... I have learned to always keep it an option in the back of my mind. Seems like if the warm wedge has a chance of trending north, it almost always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Should I be worried about sleet here at Killington tomorrow now? Really don’t want pellets hitting me in the face. That seems crazy but that warm layer keeps trending north every run. Starting to wonder if I should have gone further north to Bush Stowe or Smuggs. I think you'll be fine at Killington, but I guess there's a chance. I'm probably changing my Bromley plans to Gore. Will decide in the morning based on nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Hey Chris... you folks at NWS looking over any soundings ? ... curious how deep in the atmosphere this arctic arm/exertion really is ... particularly down here around this interface/storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Here’s the thing, it’s not colder then the NAM in SNE. They are virtually identical. See Will post please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: See Will post please It's a pretty close call for a nasty ice storm for you up through ORH, I'm almost leaning towards it. Knock like 2C off the surface progs and there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Based on the early alarms broadcast about this event, this could go down as an historical bust, particularly if there is nothing crazy ice-wise. 3’ to 5”. Not much Of a miss. Too many people bought into the hype machine that was created in the media. Even at the gym this morning I overheard a couple of people talking about receiving 2-3 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: See Will post please Where did he say the GFS was colder then the NAM? Don’t see that at all. And here are the 30hr graphics to show my point. NAM is colder then the GFS At the surface but they are both a torch at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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