Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Danger ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Do you know any mets at TWC? They certainly knew there was less than a 1 percent chance of parts of the area receiving 3+ feet. I do know a few mets there....but I'll admit TWC is a bit of a different animal than a local weather forecaster. I could totally see corporate there putting up more extreme graphics. But pretty much every TV met I know has almost total autonomy on their own forecast graphics. Maybe there are some bad stations that force them to put bad graphics out, but I personally don't know any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12-18" may be to low after this 18z Nam run.............. I have been thinking the snow amounts have just been too high up here. NAM is giving me almost 2" again. Even cutting those down by 1/3 but figuring a 1 to 15 ratio gives me a friggin lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I do know a few mets there....but I'll admit TWC is a bit of a different animal than a local weather forecaster. I could totally see corporate there putting up more extreme graphics. But pretty much every TV met I know has almost total autonomy on their own forecast graphics. Maybe there are some bad stations that force them to put bad graphics out, but I personally don't know any of them. This is what I figured. Thank you. Dude, they need to get a Kev on there...he'd make them billions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 LavaRock will meh this................... 000 WWUS41 KGYX 182030 WSWGYX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 330 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND... A significant storm will move northeast on Saturday night, spreading snow across the region. By Sunday, this system will track along the southern New England coastline and through the Gulf of Maine. This will result in heavy snow across the region with widespread areas with double digit snowfall. Along the coastline, a brief period of sleet may fall during the day Sunday. Needless to say, driving conditions will be treacherous starting Saturday night and especially Sunday when snowfall rates will increase. MEZ012>014-018>022-NHZ003>013-015-190430- /O.UPG.KGYX.WS.A.0002.190120T0000Z-190121T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KGYX.WS.W.0002.190120T0000Z-190121T0600Z/ Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York- Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo- Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton- Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire- Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham- Western And Central Hillsborough- Including the cities of Bethel, Bryant Pond, Hanover, Locke Mills, Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford, Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton, Chesterville, Jay, Athens, Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra, Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, Bridgton, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney, Windsor, Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson, Knox, Liberty, Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, Unity, Bethlehem, Lincoln, Littleton, Sugar Hill, Thornton, Waterville Valley, Woodstock, North Conway, Albany, Conway, Chatham, Crawford Notch, Lyme, Ashland, Ellsworth, Holderness, Plymouth, Rumney, Wakefield, Bridgewater, Brookfield, Ossipee, Tuftonboro, Wolfeboro, Moultonborough, Claremont, Cornish, Croydon, Goshen, Grantham, Lempster, Newport, Charlestown, Boscawen, Canterbury, Concord, Dunbarton, Loudon, Hooksett, Laconia, Gilford, Meredith, Barrington, Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Gilsum, Keene, Marlow, Sullivan, Surry, Jaffrey, Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter, Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon, Goffstown, Peterborough, Sharon, and Weare 330 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 14 to 18 inches expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Hampshire and south central, southwest and western Maine. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 OT but there's your diamond dust weather in the long range modeling. PV dropping in for a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: I have been thinking the snow amounts have just been too high up here. NAM is giving me almost 2" again. Even cutting those down by 1/3 but figuring a 1 to 15 ratio gives me a friggin lot of snow. It will still fall in that range, GYX above agrees with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: OT but there's your diamond dust weather in the long range modeling. PV dropping in for a visit. Congrats RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 can we all agree Jim Cantore is cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Congrats RIC Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Congrats RIC Hopefully that doesn't happen. Do the ensembles plop that on us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Danger ahead You're gonna get a total paint peeler in Tolland...after maybe 6" of snow. Bulletproof pack though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, correnjim1 said: can we all agree Jim Cantore is cool? The chair of the South Boston Weenie Society says here-here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You're gonna get a total paint peeler in Tolland...after maybe 6" of snow. Bulletproof pack though. Yup, cold layer way too thick for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM has 8-9" here and then hours of sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Congrats dendrite that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully that doesn't happen. Do you ensembles plop that on us? I have not even looked past this one coming up, lol, I have people e-mailing, Texting for totals, Messaging from facebook plus did a map early this am after looking at the 00z/06Z data for the sled forum i'm on and been on there too...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Congrats dendrite that run. ML fronto ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, wxextreme said: I would be apt to say these numbers are inflated due to inherit issues within the modeling dynamics. For one, the icing is (from my understanding) interpolated over time period and does not capture what happens during intermediate time steps. Not to mention, the upper air temperatures aloft have been in question as to how much warm air will be overrunning. Because the thermal soundings are in question, the ice accumulation rate forecasts will be questionable at best. I would expect these numbers to fall as modeling time intervals become more refined. For sure. Model is just pointing out where it is . I think it ends up N of there those as I can't by any appreciable icing at the coast occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, wx2fish said: ML fronto ftw Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, wxextreme said: 18Z NAM is bringing more sleet over Northern MA, which is interesting. I'd be more apt to say with this profile that it would likely be switching back and forth. There will be some fine details needed to be worked out before I start making definitive yes all snow or mixing in my neck of the woods (north of Fitchburg, MA). We will be getting at least a few pingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. Congrats on your 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. First glance i saw positive depth charge................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 40 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I agree. Any mid level fronto bands will Punch better snow growth too. I could see a wide swath of 12-18". 13-15:1 ratios on 1" QPF. But I bet any 700-850mb frontogenesis in NNE gets up to 20:1 ratios. Maybe during the snowburst it's 20:1, but less likely for the whole event. Since moving to Maine (46 years ago this coming Wednesday), I've measured exactly one storm of 10"+ that cracked the 20 mark, a low-wind featherbomb in Dec. 1981 (thus Ft. Kent) that produced 15.5" from just 0.68" LE, ratio 22.8. Next highest was 18.3 from a similar storm when I lived in Gardiner, 13.9" from 0.76" LE in early Feb. 1993. (Lesser storms are different. I've twice gotten 4.5" of freaky flakes from 0.10" LE, once in BGR and once in Gardiner.) Like the little BN hook on that 12/1-forward temp map, as it reaches my place where I'm -2 compared to my 21-year average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ran the 18Z NAM from by basement. Albany Weenies approve. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You're gonna get a total paint peeler in Tolland...after maybe 6" of snow. Bulletproof pack though. I agree but I think the warmth aloft wins out for enough time for extended zr. These never go the opposite way so close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. Bring this baby a bit more south by 25 miles the joy of getting under 700 mb FGEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It really is incredible to see the hours of sleet on the NAM. Never happens like that at Logan. So this one will be a test (in terms of it actually occurring) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. Road trip to Fredricton, NB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 24 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Stop. Collaborate and listen. Ice is on a brand new mission. January 1953 redux for NNJ? (We lost power for 6 days, had 6" cracked ice in our driveway after the ice fell off the trees.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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