HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 My cell phone and car key fob die pretty often when skiing. The batteries go lifeless until they warm up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 I still wonder (if not suspect) that the Euro operational is over-done with the warm up in the late middle range. I mentioned that yesterday ... the model has a subtle meridian bias in the D6+ time ranges, one particularly notable when ever there is a reason to plunk a negative geopoential anomaly over the Great Basin. Many know of this ... the "SW bias low heights of the Euro" that used to be demonstrative back in the day ... is more like vestigial now. There's been corrections and improvements over all in that model ... but some how some way through it all there is an echo of its ancestry still in the panache of its trend-handling and pattern modulations and so forth. Just a whisper... Case in point, the 12z yesterday demoed a fantastically warm hemispheric burst over eastern North American mid latitudes for D6-10 as we all know. The 00z? Still has it... but the particulars have it less as extremely so. Meanwhile ... the high trustworthy other model types (eh hm) ... don't agree anyway. The GGEM? That's a prelude to an ice storm ... almost 1998 style... with a positive trough tilted across the U.S.... an arm of high pressure draped across S-SE Canada, and waves of overrunning being ejected and strung out along the boundary. The paralegal model, Fv3' of the GFS' soon to be replacement (in theory) flat out models extended icing scenarios on both it's 00z and 06z runs. Ice storms are fantastically difficult to assess ...let alone even predict occurrences beyond two days. In fact, I'd almost argue you could predict a tornado outbreak with more certitude. But, the macro-synopsis of the period D7 to 11 (say) would seem to suggest an enhanced possibility for that type of weather phenomenon. The AO is negative... while the PNA flat lines (if perhaps the latter being modulated (A LITTLE) by the MJO's recent charge through Phase 4-6)... The success of that sort of concurrent index mode offers the positive tilted trough with overrunning ... almost as the preferred pattern tendency (intuitively) so, ... While I do think that TX-FL and adjacent SW Atl. Basin heights may end up positive D6 thru 12... I wouldn't be shocked if there is exertion (more so than the oper. Euro is seeing) from the N, along the 40th parallel... and the form that comes in, when talking early February... that's anyone's guess - but at the end of the day I bet against the Euro's early May look from 12z yesterday, and it's 00z, albeit subtle backing off that general complexion, is probably indicative. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 When I lived out in the Intermountain west, doing field in sept, oct, nov, we would take the batteries out of all the electronics and split them up among the crew so that we all some to sleep with in our sleeping bags. At the end of the season when it was chilly during the day as well, we would carry the extra batteries on us to keep them warm. Cold sucks the life out of everything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I heard they dont shut down their schools unless temps are -25 or colder with wind chills of -35 or colder- kids will start complaining when their cell phones stop working lol. Widespread -40s in northern MN this morning. The AWOSs can’t even report that cold. INL -45°. No thanks. edit....saw a -48F at Ash Lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I’ve also experienced the cell phone phenomenon. Go out to walk the dog on a very cold night and the battery drains quickly. This cold should be the temperature nadir of winter. We’re actually heading into a decent pattern long term but the obscene EPO seems over for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Call me crazy, but the CFS and EURO weeklies look good. I know they keep getting pushed back BUT the MJO looks good on 90% of guidance. Also, both CFS and EURO weeklies predicted this torch week coming up with a dip of the pna. Then the pattern gets better. Also, Isotherm and too a lesser extent Don are still confident on a better pattern. Now, it may not last long, but like you said 1 or 2 moderate to heavy events are still POSSIBILITIES before spring. Neck, we may even luck out with a hail Mary blizzard to get our area to climo. All in all too early to completely give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The cell phone phenomenon is particularly frustrating when going on a long run and your battery goes from 98% to dead in 5 minutes. It's hit and miss though. Sometimes it happens at 30F, but other times at <20F, it works fine. I also attribute it to my phone being nearly 5 years old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The GEFS more accurate than the EPS 11-15 the last 90 days? Really?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 13 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: The cell phone phenomenon is particularly frustrating when going on a long run and your battery goes from 98% to dead in 5 minutes. It's hit and miss though. Sometimes it happens at 30F, but other times at <20F, it works fine. I also attribute it to my phone being nearly 5 years old. The 5 year old part is the key!! Had an I phone 6 for 4 years and the last year with it last winter, it would die in any type of cold, in a few minutes! got a new iPhone 8 in Late June...and have been up in northern MAINE twice this year, and temps were frigid(-26f one night and -8F for a high temp last weekend), and phone never missed a beat at all. Had it in pants pocket as I rode..and It held the charge and battery life was not affected at all. Last year my 6 would die in a few minutes from that cold. It’s the battery...if it’s young and strong no issues. But if it’s a little older and starting to lose some strength, then the cold will expose that weakness very quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 12 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: The GEFS more accurate than the EPS 11-15 the last 90 days? Really?! Yeah that isn’t surprising when you think back. There was a very long stretch somewhere in late December I think where the EPS insisted the pattern was going to stay very bad and the GEFS disagreed. The GEFS still showed a meh pattern itself, but it wasn’t AS horrific. Ultimately the EPS eventually caved. That right there may have been enough for it to lose the 90 day score 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: The GEFS more accurate than the EPS 11-15 the last 90 days? Really?! Who said this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Who said this? Leonard put it up a couple days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Leonard put it up a couple days ago... Can you link to it? Id like to see the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Can you link to it? Id like to see the data. It was a mean error temp graphic. The EPS loses to the GEFS by .04F in the 11-15 day. Lmao. What a win for the GEFS! Shits itself in every other category. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It was a mean error temp graphic. The EPS loses to the GEFS by .04F. Lmao. What a win for the GEFS! Shits itself in every other category. Ahh lol. I was kind surprised since ecmwf vastly outperforms gfs in all categories at day 10 and its ensemble is much more dispersive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Ahh lol. I was kind surprised since ecmwf vastly outperforms gfs in all categories at day 10 and its ensemble is much more dispersive. I don’t even know how the error can be calculated. It’s a pretty useless stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 It is amazing how separate that Northern Stream and Southern Stream have stayed this year. Not even an ounce of goodwill between the 2, to entice the coming together for the possibility of breaking bread... When Egon said, Don't cross the streams, Ray...who knew the universe would obey verbatim??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 MEX with a high of -16 at ORD Wednesday and a high of 47 by Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: MEX with a high of -16 at ORD Wednesday and a high of 47 by Saturday. Taking the under on 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Taking the under on 47 I’m not. They don’t have some of the geographic protections we do. But we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 39 minutes ago, weathafella said: MEX with a high of -16 at ORD Wednesday and a high of 47 by Saturday. It's been happening all season though ... Cold knifing incursions that behave like probes and pull out as quick as they arrived. We've been getting stabbed like prison shiv scenes ... in and out. This one is just perhaps a bit more robust for the "in" part ...but the out nearly as quickly is an antic quite thematic on the season. It's one of the reasons why all these rain events have been so maddening... People remember their fingers aching when scraping their car's windshield ... then, blithely, rain ...sometimes on the same damn day. The issue? There's been very little sustained ... "foundational" cold ... within which lurks and/or foments the storm systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: It's been happening all season though ... Cold knifing incursions that behave like probes and pull out as quick as they arrived. We've been getting stabbed liked prison shiv scenes ... in and out. This one is just perhaps a bit more robust for the "in" part ...but the out antic is thematic on the season. It's one of the reasons why all these rain events have been so maddening... People remember their fingers aching when scraping their car's windshield ... then, blithely, rain ...sometimes on the same damn day. The issue? There's been very little sustained ... "foundational" cold ... within which lurks and/or foments the storm systems. Cyclones do that season to season; sometimes they seem to favor developing on the warm side of the westerlies.. other seasons, the opposite is true. Yes....but I’m pretty sure we haven’t seen a 63F swing in 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yes....but I’m pretty sure we haven’t seen a 63F swing in 72 hours. Not sure what your point is... ? The point I'm making is that there is a pretty clear precedence already established that that we can turn things around in a hurry. Magnitude, notwithstanding ... I acknowledged that anyway, " This one is just perhaps a bit more robust for the "in" part ...but the out antic is thematic on the season. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure what your point is... ? The point I'm making is that there is a pretty clear precedence already established that that we can turn things around in a hurry. Magnitude, notwithstanding ... I acknowledged that anyway, " This one is just perhaps a bit more robust for the "in" part ...but the out antic is thematic on the season. " My point should be evident. Flirting with the coldest ever to near record warmth in 3 days is amazing! I get that if any season foretold this 2018-19 is the one but we’ve had others somewhat similar and I just don’t have a memory of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I heard they dont shut down their schools unless temps are -25 or colder with wind chills of -35 or colder- kids will start complaining when their cell phones stop working lol. That’s the same threshold they use in CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 I've seen it before ... several times... Hell, it was 9 F at dawn one faithful morning in late January, 1994 ...and it was 64 at 11 pm with howling southerly gales that very same evening up and UML. We did that inside of the same 12 to 18 hours let alone 2 or 3 days. There are others in the old rolladex of memories.... Granted, it may not be that common - I guess your 'magnitude' part didn't resonate as loudly with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 Hm.... awaiting the Euro back down on the polarward extent of warm sector out there in late mid range is not paying any dividends just yet, huh - jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Atlantic blocking now inside of 10 days. Maybe it’s coming finally. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Pickles bets are a lock now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Atlantic blocking now inside of 10 days. Maybe it’s coming finally. NAO looks positive, save for a couple members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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