weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 22 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: NAO looks positive, save for a couple members. Ensemble mean of eps does show some blocking. Sign of NAO notwithstanding. Sometimes the numerical value does not tell the story as it may be mslp differences or even h5 at specific locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 The EPS looks like a two day transience with that warm up ... Not sure how that compares to the operational per se... but, that's only "devastating" because we've been devastated by dearth and only adds to torment. But, truth be told, ...could almost just be construed as a thaw anyway - most winters have them. We been cold enough to snow, just no snow ... So, as far as "thawing" is concerned, snow is/was never really a part of that - it's about pattern roll outs and temperature recovery ... Usually prior to some form or another of a reload so... unfortunately, whether winter enthusiasts feel they have patience to endure a thaw or not - because of taxation and tolls already rendered .... too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 more cold, more snow today, broken record at this point just got back from chicago for the week... the wind and cold out there was wicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Glad we don’t live at thief river falls. GFSX MOS (MEX) KTVF GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/27/2019 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 MON 28| TUE 29| WED 30| THU 31| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03|MON CLIMO N/X -7 5|-29 -27|-38 -22|-31 -4| -4 17| 14 26| 6 7|-13 -4 16 TMP -2 -1|-23 -29|-33 -25|-24 -6| 3 14| 18 23| 13 3| -8 DPT -13 -11|-30 -38|-40 -32|-30 -12| -3 7| 12 15| 8 -2|-13 CLD OV OV| OV OV| OV PC| PC OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV WND 17 12| 12 18| 14 9| 7 11| 13 10| 16 16| 12 12| 15 P12 61 33| 13 10| 7 4| 0 20| 23 21| 19 24| 33 18| 17999999 P24 69| 13| 8| 21| 27| 31| 40| 999 Q12 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 1| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 T24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 PZP 1 1| 0 1| 1 1| 0 1| 2 3| 6 8| 7 1| 2 PSN 98 99|100 99| 99 98|100 99| 92 90| 90 74| 67 97| 95 PRS 1 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 2 5| 4 5| 15 2| 4 TYP S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S Z| S S| S SNW 1| 1| 0| 0| 1| 0| | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Glad we don’t live at thief river falls. GFSX MOS (MEX) KTVF GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/27/2019 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 MON 28| TUE 29| WED 30| THU 31| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03|MON CLIMO N/X -7 5|-29 -27|-38 -22|-31 -4| -4 17| 14 26| 6 7|-13 -4 16 TMP -2 -1|-23 -29|-33 -25|-24 -6| 3 14| 18 23| 13 3| -8 DPT -13 -11|-30 -38|-40 -32|-30 -12| -3 7| 12 15| 8 -2|-13 CLD OV OV| OV OV| OV PC| PC OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV WND 17 12| 12 18| 14 9| 7 11| 13 10| 16 16| 12 12| 15 P12 61 33| 13 10| 7 4| 0 20| 23 21| 19 24| 33 18| 17999999 P24 69| 13| 8| 21| 27| 31| 40| 999 Q12 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 1| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 T24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 PZP 1 1| 0 1| 1 1| 0 1| 2 3| 6 8| 7 1| 2 PSN 98 99|100 99| 99 98|100 99| 92 90| 90 74| 67 97| 95 PRS 1 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 2 5| 4 5| 15 2| 4 TYP S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S Z| S S| S SNW 1| 1| 0| 0| 1| 0| | Just climo is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Just climo is impressive -46F at INL this morning. Broke the old record of -36F by a little bit. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The EPS looks like a two day transience with that warm up ... Not sure how that compares to the operational per se... but, that's only "devastating" because we've been devastated by dearth and only adds to torment. But, truth be told, ...could almost just be construed as a thaw anyway - most winters have them. We been cold enough to snow, just no snow ... So, as far as "thawing" is concerned, snow is/was never really a part of that - it's about pattern roll outs and temperature recovery ... Usually prior to some form or another of a reload so... unfortunately, whether winter enthusiasts feel they have patience to endure a thaw or not - because of taxation and tolls already rendered .... too bad. Yeah it's warm D8-10 but there's actually some signs it could get tempered by a high to the north lurking...we'll see. Beyond that the pattern looks very good...not perfect...but very good. Seems to be a theme though. Can't score when the pattern is merely good to very good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Pickles bets are a lock now They were always a lock iceberg knew it even when he made it i head day 10 looks good .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's warm D8-10 but there's actually some signs it could get tempered by a high to the north lurking...we'll see. Beyond that the pattern looks very good...not perfect...but very good. Seems to be a theme though. Can't score when the pattern is merely good to very good. Well yeah ...that's certainly the frustration root, right there. But ... I was thinkin ... if it did not snow again this winter, then, take (2015+this winter)/2 ...we might be about average... I know I know...good luck selling fairness - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Glad we don’t live at thief river falls. GFSX MOS (MEX) KTVF GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/27/2019 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 MON 28| TUE 29| WED 30| THU 31| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03|MON CLIMO N/X -7 5|-29 -27|-38 -22|-31 -4| -4 17| 14 26| 6 7|-13 -4 16 TMP -2 -1|-23 -29|-33 -25|-24 -6| 3 14| 18 23| 13 3| -8 DPT -13 -11|-30 -38|-40 -32|-30 -12| -3 7| 12 15| 8 -2|-13 CLD OV OV| OV OV| OV PC| PC OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV WND 17 12| 12 18| 14 9| 7 11| 13 10| 16 16| 12 12| 15 P12 61 33| 13 10| 7 4| 0 20| 23 21| 19 24| 33 18| 17999999 P24 69| 13| 8| 21| 27| 31| 40| 999 Q12 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 1| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 T24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 PZP 1 1| 0 1| 1 1| 0 1| 2 3| 6 8| 7 1| 2 PSN 98 99|100 99| 99 98|100 99| 92 90| 90 74| 67 97| 95 PRS 1 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 2 5| 4 5| 15 2| 4 TYP S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S Z| S S| S SNW 1| 1| 0| 0| 1| 0| | Cheap midnight high Tuesday in the teens below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Glad we don’t live at thief river falls. GFSX MOS (MEX) KTVF GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/27/2019 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 MON 28| TUE 29| WED 30| THU 31| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03|MON CLIMO N/X -7 5|-29 -27|-38 -22|-31 -4| -4 17| 14 26| 6 7|-13 -4 16 TMP -2 -1|-23 -29|-33 -25|-24 -6| 3 14| 18 23| 13 3| -8 DPT -13 -11|-30 -38|-40 -32|-30 -12| -3 7| 12 15| 8 -2|-13 CLD OV OV| OV OV| OV PC| PC OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV WND 17 12| 12 18| 14 9| 7 11| 13 10| 16 16| 12 12| 15 P12 61 33| 13 10| 7 4| 0 20| 23 21| 19 24| 33 18| 17999999 P24 69| 13| 8| 21| 27| 31| 40| 999 Q12 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 1| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 T24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 PZP 1 1| 0 1| 1 1| 0 1| 2 3| 6 8| 7 1| 2 PSN 98 99|100 99| 99 98|100 99| 92 90| 90 74| 67 97| 95 PRS 1 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 2 5| 4 5| 15 2| 4 TYP S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S Z| S S| S SNW 1| 1| 0| 0| 1| 0| | Low of 6, nigh of 7, PSN down to 67%. I’m guessing the entire column is easily sub freezing. MOS has some wtf moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's warm D8-10 but there's actually some signs it could get tempered by a high to the north lurking...we'll see. Beyond that the pattern looks very good...not perfect...but very good. Seems to be a theme though. Can't score when the pattern is merely good to very good. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012712&fh=504 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 55 minutes ago, weathafella said: Low of 6, nigh of 7, PSN down to 67%. I’m guessing the entire column is easily sub freezing. MOS has some wtf moments. It isn't though. TVF is flirting with 0C at 850 on the 3rd ahead of the next system coming out of the Rockies. The high of 7F would indicate steady or falling temps through the 12-00z period. I mean, the 12z temp there is 13F and 00z is 3F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: It isn't though. TVF is flirting with 0C at 850 on the 3rd ahead of the next system coming out of the Rockies. The high of 7F would indicate steady or falling temps through the 12-00z period. I mean, the 12z temp there is 13F and 00z is 3F. Inversion from hell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: They were always a lock iceberg knew it even when he made it i head day 10 looks good .... No it wasn't. If you win here, and it lures you into continuing to bet me, I'm fine with it because I'm sure I'll come out ahead in the long run. No one is right all of the time, but I'm comfortable with my track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Pickles will really be pissed if BOS gets 20 in February, 40 in March, and a fluke KU on 4/3 dumping 22.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 39 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: I passed through there on the way back from salt lake last Tuesday....meh, typical Chicago in January, dreary, 26 degrees...freezing snizzle....nothing to write home about. What you described is typical but the past few days are way colder. -10 to +10 and a lot colder coming mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 It's very clear the SSW destroyed many forecasts, it was clear in December the SSW would focus the cold and snow into Europe, many dismissed this saying it didn't matter. It clearly did and I strongly believe the strong MJO in unfavorable phases is due to the strong and long SSW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 21 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It's very clear the SSW destroyed many forecasts, it was clear in December the SSW would focus the cold and snow into Europe, many dismissed this saying it didn't matter. It clearly did and I strongly believe the strong MJO in unfavorable phases is due to the strong and long SSW event. Europe has been cold but that isn't where the largest chunk of it went.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Europe has been cold but that isn't where the largest chunk of it went.... KSweed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Canada’s cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Canada’s cold! Central Canada is an icebox and has been for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: It's very clear the SSW destroyed many forecasts, it was clear in December the SSW would focus the cold and snow into Europe, many dismissed this saying it didn't matter. It clearly did and I strongly believe the strong MJO in unfavorable phases is due to the strong and long SSW event. I agree with this...at least to an extent. I think it provides deconstructive interference to atlantic blocking because of where the warming occured. That is what mattered. However I was right that there would still be enough cold, but I failed to foresee 1) The fact that we'd even have a SSW this season 2) The it would prove inimical to n atl blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The cold focus was not in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Windex squalls on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 Heh... man, at -15 to -35 F over here on the "warm side of the SSW" ...guess we dodged a bullet, huh. Firstly, SSW's don't deliver cold ? It is unclear at best whether certain individual understands the rudimentary facets of the SSW model to begin with, and no ... no one else in the greater ambit of worthy writers on the subject matter, ever implicated the SSW directly to cold without at least tacit recognition of how that works; unlike this special kind of stupid asshole's comment implies they believe: "it was clear in December the SSW would focus the cold and snow into Europe, " As if it is even necessary to say... what the f* does snow have to do with SSW's ? Secondly, everyone should try to adopt at least some attempt to understand the psychology behind someone's intents ... and in some cases antics. It'll help you put them into perspective, and... you'll be less inclined to indulge their strategy. It's not a tough read. It's not audacious or inappropriate to do so, either. This is a text-book case of frustrations ..regardless of exact triggers, then needing a place to vent, they feel cozy in doing so from a desk-top and/or hand held device out in the oblivion of the electronic Universe - i.,e.,, trolling in anonymity. It's cowardly and most cases, out-of-line and as the above course work certainly exposed, wrong. Hate to extend the elementary method (but being that his is open to the public ... you have douchy adolescence and/or suspended developed adult jaggovs amongst you), ... the only way that can be controlled? Completely and utterly ignoring them. Particularly since moderation on this forum is relaxed since this became an enterprise. Block if you must ... do whatever you need to, but that individual's tactic is clear: once in a while, post something seemingly cogent, thinking that affords enough clout enough to then execute his/her real intent, abuse of other's insights because he/she cannot produce enough of their own to protect them from their own frustration. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 So it appeared to me a couple days ago that the Euro operational ...and to some lesser extent, it's ensemble mean (dreadfully known as the E P S s s s ), may be overcooked with the warm up ...scale of anomaly, time length ..etc. I speculated that it may come down to just two days of more transient warm sector penetration ...partial dance around -impetus is that said warm sector could be contaminated at that, implied... Last night's 00z run performed a much more coherent correction in favor of that insight. In fact, the operational version even offers an ice potential during the same period it had a day plausibly in the 60s just two runs ago. Also, ice event phenomenon is favored in that general large synoptic evolution/period... at least when employing the balance of the GEFs tele's ... Seeing trends like this in the operational runs merely becomes a probabilistic fit ... "Ice storms" ... in fact, any magnitude there in is completely unknown. Just that it is something to look for - Ironically ... the oper. Euro went from the most emphatic warm solution to the more seasonal neutral solution ....effectively reversing places with the GFS ... which seems more interested in deeper warm sectors all of the sudden - I disagree with that for the same antecedent reasoning ... It's own ensemble eofs have -AO riding over a top a neutral PNA ... that doesn't exactly scream torrid heights up to the Del Marva 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: So it appeared to me a couple days ago that the Euro operational ...and to some lesser extent, it's ensemble mean (dreadfully known as the E P S s s s ), may be overcooked with the warm up ...scale of anomaly, time length ..etc. I speculated that it may come down to just two days of more transient warm sector penetration ...partial dance around -impetus is that said warm sector could be contaminated at that, implied... Last night's 00z run performed a much more coherent correction in favor of that insight. In fact, the operational version even offers an ice potential during the same period it had a day plausibly in the 60s just two runs ago. Also, ice event phenomenon is favored in that general large synoptic evolution/period... at least when employing the balance of the GEFs tele's ... Seeing trends like this in the operational runs merely becomes a probabilistic fit ... "Ice storms" ... in fact, any magnitude there in is completely unknown. Just that it is something to look for - Negative EPO with troughiness in the west is def a synoptic setup where ice is more common. Euro actually did have ice in the D8-9 system over interior. Obviously that doesn't mean too much at this time lead but it shows how it would happen if we got that lower level oozing of cold underneath the upper level ridging in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Some very ugly ones in there, Especially in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh... man, at -15 to -35 F over here on the "warm side of the SSW" ...guess we dodged a bullet, huh. Firstly, SSW's don't deliver cold ? It is unclear at best whether certain individual understands the rudimentary facets of the SSW model to begin with, and no ... no one else in the greater ambit of worthy writers on the subject matter, ever implicated the SSW directly to cold without at least tacit recognition of how that works; unlike this special kind of stupid asshole's comment implies they believe: "it was clear in December the SSW would focus the cold and snow into Europe, " As if it is even necessary to say... what the f* does snow have to do with SSW's ? Secondly, everyone should try to adopt at least some attempt to understand the psychology behind someone's intents ... and in some cases antics. It'll help you put them into perspective, and... you'll be less inclined to indulge their strategy. It's not a tough read. It's not audacious or inappropriate to do so, either. This is a text-book case of frustrations ..regardless of exact triggers, then needing a place to vent, they feel cozy in doing so from a desk-top and/or hand held device out in the oblivion of the electronic Universe - i.,e.,, trolling in anonymity. It's cowardly and most cases, out-of-line and as the above course work certainly exposed, wrong. Hate to extend the elementary method (but being that his is open to the public ... you have douchy adolescence and/or suspended developed adult jaggovs amongst you), ... the only way that can be controlled? Completely and utterly ignoring them. Particularly since moderation on this forum is relaxed since this became an enterprise. Block if you must ... do whatever you need to, but that individual's tactic is clear: once in a while, post something seemingly cogent, thinking that affords enough clout enough to then execute his/her real intent, abuse of other's insights because he/she cannot produce enough of their own to protect them from their own frustration. He’s exposed himself as a fraud troll on here multiple times . He’s a high school kid with an ax to grind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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