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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Negative EPO with troughiness in the west is def a synoptic setup where ice is more common. Euro actually did have ice in the D8-9 system over interior. Obviously that doesn't mean too much at this time lead but it shows how it would happen if we got that lower level oozing of cold underneath the upper level ridging in the east. 

Yeah ... Honestly I've been reliant on the more crude AO/PNA coupling to make that determination as the usual source for the EPO/WPO has been off-line since the appropriations pissing contest ...

Supposedly, that's ended as of last Friday.  So... it's just now 9: AM, and assuming those offices are opening today... I figure the CDC comes back on-line say ... Wednesday ?  That should be enough shake-down time to dust off and allow the routines grind away and get caught back up enough to start putting out indexes by mid week.  don't know though -

I just don't know of any sites that post the EPO and WPO off either EPS or GEFs ... I haven't bothered to look as the Internet had become too bogged down by greed and conquest ...  ruined the Internet for any information retrieval ... 

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol CAR....literally 100" more than BOS (officially) and it's only late January.

You know... Earth and IMBY part company ... 

Oh, IMBY is certainly on Earth  (depending on the person reporting, I should say...) but, from a more macro perspective, this is a huuuuuugemangus snow year or eastern North America. 

Sorry - it is... if CAR doubles that ...which they could seeing as Feb and Mar lurk ... 

Part of the problem is acceptance.  Simple facet really ...but one human beings have an equally huge problem with.  It's why there are four or five stages in the post-mortem recovery... haha. 

Seriously though, just because it hasn't snowed much between Mt Washington and NYC ...doesn't mean that it hasn't been a big snow year - it's all a matter of a relative-scope.   

I'm sure in 2015 when we were what 200% of normal by February 28th that years, and BTV was 90% ... we weren't claiming it was a bad winter.   Funny how that works. 

I mean I'm not lecturing you per se just sayn'

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15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some very ugly ones in there, Especially in SNE

image.thumb.png.b4d468a814c072b0c00b0e4fa9ac8fb7.png

When KWAL is beating KBOS (yes I know..eyes rolling, but just saying)....you really just tip your cap. It's unbelievable. Mother Nature pumping the breaks on our insane decadal snow averages. Climo is a bitch. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

When KWAL is beating KBOS (yes I know..eyes rolling, but just saying)....you really just tip your cap. It's unbelievable. Mother Nature pumping the breaks on our insane decadal snow averages. Climo is a bitch. 

Some hate to admit it, But at some point there has to be some regression to even out those avgs.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

When KWAL is beating KBOS (yes I know..eyes rolling, but just saying)....you really just tip your cap. It's unbelievable. Mother Nature pumping the breaks on our insane decadal snow averages. Climo is a bitch. 

Even with the missed totals for BOS, they are far behind where they should be, to date.

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So are all the long term forecasts of an above average snowfall for this winter.....crashing and burning for sure???   Are we just about cooked going forward?  I know it's kind of redundant to say, but it is still January.  Does the outlook going forward look decent at all?  Kind of haven't followed along the last couple days..which was probably a good thing.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When KWAL is beating KBOS (yes I know..eyes rolling, but just saying)....you really just tip your cap. It's unbelievable. Mother Nature pumping the breaks on our insane decadal snow averages. Climo is a bitch. 

Not to be a "beyotch" ... but, I don't think this is climate rearing it's head as much as a "glitch in the matrix" 

I just think this is a statistical aberration along a climate that's not only already changed...but is still changing.  Possibly said "aberration" is related causally to the latter - like ... growing pains. 

I think the climate change is affecting/effecting eastern North America too... I probably roll-eyes in the local users more so than raise eyebrows saying that - understood.  But, increased snow fall is a part of a warmer atmosphere. 

See...folks think that warmth means warm days - ... it does...or, "can" we should say.  But that's more like 50 ...100, 200 years into the future that you can count on D.C. weather in Boston.  In the interim, there's enough cold around that increasing the ambient theta-e mass due to the atmosphere being warmer, will cause increased rain and snow fall.  The climate models have been indicating this since these models have been committed to super computers and we're probably just experiencing our flavor of that from D.C. to Maine.  

No.... it's just my opinion, but... I suggest this year has just been dumb luck for lack of simpler dialogue on the matter.  Maybe "bad luck" is part of yours/the bigger climate picture for New England?  Sure... fine. No problem believing in a kosmik dildo pump quota. I've lived here long enough to be on both the receiving and delivery end of that fortune.  Excluding that factor for a moment, it is possible this year (even...holy shit imagine that...) to have one of these cold air mass actually time well with one or two of these bigger QPF bombs and suddenly you go from in shit to in charge in a real hurry. 

I know I know ...it's just impossible to see reality through the lenz of unmitigated sore-buttness but you just have to higher a masseuse and keep a chin up and a stolid objectivity in the face of all tormented hells... It's called bravery I suppose.  

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be a "beyotch" ... but, I don't think this is climate rearing it's head as much as a "glitch in the matrix" 

I just think this is a statistical aberration along a climate that's not only already changed...but is still changing.  Possibly said "aberration" is related causally to the latter - like ... growing pains. 

I think the climate change is affecting/effecting eastern North America too... I probably roll-eyes in the local users more so than raise eyebrows saying that - understood.  But, increased snow fall is a part of a warmer atmosphere. 

See...folks think that warmth means warm days - ... it does...or, "can" we should say.  But that's more like 50 ...100, 200 years into the future that you can count on D.C. weather in Boston.  In the interim, there's enough cold around that increasing the ambient theta-e mass due to the atmosphere being warmer, will cause increased rain and snow fall.  The climate models have been indicating this since these models have been committed to super computers and we're probably just experiencing our flavor of that from D.C. to Maine.  

No.... it's just my opinion, but... I suggest this year has just been dumb luck for lack of simpler dialogue on the matter.  Maybe "bad luck" is part of yours/the bigger climate picture for New England?  Sure... fine. No problem believing in a kosmik dildo pump quota. I've lived here long enough to be on both the receiving and delivery end of that fortune.  Excluding that factor for a moment, it is possible this year (even...holy shit imagine that...) to have one of these cold air mass actually time well with one or two of these bigger QPF bombs and suddenly you go from in shit to in charge in a real hurry. 

I know I know ...it's just impossible to see reality through the lenz of unmitigated sore-buttness but you just have to higher a masseuse and keep a chin up and a stolid objectivity in the face of all tormented hells... It's called bravery I suppose.  

Oh I wasn't trying to go the climate change route. My point was that there are reasons why we don't average these exorbitant amounts that we've racked up over the last 20 years. Call it whatever you want, but Mother Nature eventually evens things out. I agree with your luck thoughts...that's all part of the matrix. :lol: 

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30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s exposed himself as a fraud troll on here multiple times . He’s a high school kid with an ax to grind 

well... careful, Kevin - 

Careful not to impugn "high school students" ... some are decent.   And I've been on-line in various capacities long enough to have experienced a broad pallet of different leverls in function and dysfunction among the public.  

In other words, there are adults the do the same damn shit.  

But the "ax to grind" sure -

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh I wasn't trying to go the climate change route. My point was that there are reasons why we don't average these exorbitant amounts that we've racked up over the last 20 years. Call it whatever you want, but Mother Nature eventually evens things out. I agree with your luck thoughts...that's all part of the matrix. :lol: 

Yeah... but I almost think that a "normal" year in this post climate change (and still changing era) is a different expectation than 30 years ago even.  

I just wonder if a normal snow in a theta-e rich atmosphere that flirts with cold snaps is more like extremely dry versus extremely snowy ...with less dependable pedestrian total years.   But mm... it's a murky speculative conjecture so whatever.   

fascinating..

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2 minutes ago, Massplow said:

What’s everyones thoughts on the pattern going forward? Any chance of a decent snow in sne anytime soon or do we seem to be stuck in this pattern? It would be nice to have something to track 

The big picture after early next week is one that is both something that has been great to us before, and one that has had a lot of snow--->rain type deals.  Nothing screams terrible, so that's about all you can say. Details yet to be determined. At some point, I would think something needs to go our way. 

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MJO ...  heh, the present panoply of guidance wrt to the WH are behaving virtually in a dead ringer to what happened a month ago. 

The NCEPian cluster is soaring the wave so powerfully through 7 as to suggest the Earth's rotation rate changes due to torque exertion... Meanwhile, the Euro seems to think the wave stops on a dime within a week from now  ... and collapses through the event horizon of that inner COD region.   

Which is it... ?

Probably right smack dead in the middle ...which is pretty much what happened three weeks ago, too.  The Euro agonizingly unfurled it's wave outlook through phase 7 ... eventually through 8.. And the GEFs came back from orbit to a more middling wave presentation through the same space/magnitudes.  

Which means, ...if history can be even a partial indicator/prognostic tool...we might be pushing a late Phase 7-8-1 MJO wave through an atmosphere that won't except it's forcing and cancels it out anyway  :axe: 

Thanks for playin -

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

MJO ...  heh, the present panoply of guidance wrt to the WH are behaving virtually in a dead ringer to what happened a month ago. 

The NCEPian cluster is soaring the wave so powerfully through 7 as to suggest the Earth's rotation rate changes due to torque exertion... Meanwhile, the Euro seems to think the wave stops on a dime within a week from now  ... and collapses through the event horizon of that inner COD region.   

Which is it... ?

Probably right smack dead in the middle ...which is pretty much what happened three weeks ago, too.  The Euro agonizingly unfurled it's wave outlook through phase 7 ... eventually through 8.. And the GEFs came back from orbit to a more middling wave presentation through the same space/magnitudes.  

Which means, ...if history can be even a partial indicator/prognostic tool...we might be pushing a late Phase 7-8-1 MJO wave through an atmosphere that won't except it's forcing and cancels it out anyway  :axe: 

Thanks for playin -

So lets draw a line from Mitch, to Dendrite, to Saddleback/Sunday River. If you are east of that line winter sucks if you are west of that line, winter is still fantastic...very predictable pattern...onto to 2020

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winter is far from over and will likely have snowy feb and march for sne area . nao is coming too . good luck to those that think winter is over its not and that why peope dont get there forecast from tv stations to much same thing all the time . best weather person is brad field and jb . you have to stick to your forecast not change every model run like some do .  i expect still above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple .

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Just now, blizzard24 said:

winter is far from over and will likely have snowy feb and march for sne area . nao is coming too . good luck to those that think winter is over its not and that why peope dont get there forecast from tv stations to much same thing all the time . best weather person is brad field and jb . you have to stick to your forecast not change every model run like some do .  i expect still above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple .

What about RH?

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Just now, blizzard24 said:

winter is far from over and will likely have snowy feb and march for sne area . nao is coming too . good luck to those that think winter is over its not and that why peope dont get there forecast from tv stations to much same thing all the time . best weather person is brad field and jb . you have to stick to your forecast not change every model run like some do .  i expect still above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple .

You and James need to room together

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1 hour ago, blizzard24 said:

winter is far from over and will likely have snowy feb and march for sne area . nao is coming too . good luck to those that think winter is over its not and that why peope dont get there forecast from tv stations to much same thing all the time . best weather person is brad field and jb . you have to stick to your forecast not change every model run like some do .  i expect still above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple .

William, I remember when you said the same thing in late January 2002.  You were blizzard22 then.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh I wasn't trying to go the climate change route. My point was that there are reasons why we don't average these exorbitant amounts that we've racked up over the last 20 years. Call it whatever you want, but Mother Nature eventually evens things out. I agree with your luck thoughts...that's all part of the matrix. :lol: 

I think that there is a decent shot that we will not see a winter with average temps and this kind of precip surplus yield so little snow at this latitude again in our lifetime.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that there is a decent shot that we will not see a winter with average temps and this kind of precip surplus yield so little snow at this latitude again in our lifetime.

I don’t beleive we will see another winter with these temps and this precipitation surplus.

and if we did, I absolutely agree it’s bound to snow much more.

The pacific has not been good and Atlantic has  blown balls.

seems to me the pattern has always looked good 10 days out  But in reality the pattern never has been stellar inside day 5. 

Serviceable , Ok. Should we have more ...yes. 

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t beleive we will see another winter with these temps and this precipitation surplus.

and if we did, I absolutely agree it’s bound to snow much more.

The pacific and Atlantic have blown balls.

seems to me the pattern has always looked good 10 days out and if we’re looking at “dealer cards” from that perspective ya.. the dealer is putting up 20’s. But in reality the pattern never has been stellar inside day 5. we are putting up 14’s 15’ and the dealer is putting up 16’s and 17’s.

I still won't be surprised to sneak a major event in or even a very good stretch, but I'm growing pretty confident that my outlook sucks azz. I don't really care to discuss right now whether it looks worse than it really is, but the bottom line is that its probably wrong.

I think this is just a fluke season, and my thoughts RE weak el nino remain unchanged.

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